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hamsi128
Promising
Supreme Hero
tosser tavern owner
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posted September 28, 2004 11:38 PM |
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FORECAST 2005
1) bush will be reelected
2) usa will attack syria but the real target is iran
3) earthquake will destroy istanbul and 3 millions of people will die in collapsed buildings
4) lews therin will marry with an orthodox
5) ph will shot someone ina crises in market
6) they will call me to army again to protect our frontiers near syria
7) the first 2 will happen the rest 5 are tosses 
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sirzapdos
Promising
Famous Hero
Open the pod bay doors, Hal.
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posted September 29, 2004 12:50 AM |
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Well, I hope you're wrong about 1), 2), 5) and 6).
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So I try to live a complicated world...
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Dingo
Responsible
Legendary Hero
God of Dark SPAM
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posted September 29, 2004 04:16 AM |
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If Bush was reelected, wouldn't that happen in 2004?
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The Above Post/Thread/Idea Is CopyRighted by, The Dingo Corp.
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sirzapdos
Promising
Famous Hero
Open the pod bay doors, Hal.
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posted September 29, 2004 04:18 AM |
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Well, new presidents are sworn in on January 20 I think, a couple months after the election. But if the prez is incumbent, I guess that wouldn't bn necessary. So, yeah, Dingo is right.
PS 3) is bad too.
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So I try to live a complicated world...
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privatehudson
Responsible
Legendary Hero
The Ultimate Badass
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posted September 29, 2004 10:34 AM |
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I'd be suprised at me shooting anyone since I don't own a gun 
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We're on an express elevator to Hell, goin' down!
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Peacemaker
Honorable
Supreme Hero
Peacemaker = double entendre
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posted September 30, 2004 06:15 PM |
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Ive been thinking about this very subject for quite a while now. Here's what I think will happen.
Iraqi insurgencies will continue to worsen as both elections approach, despite Congress's agreement to shift monies in the Iraqi Defence Fund from infrastructural improvements to security development. This is because, as the State Department specialists stated to the Congressional committee during its fund-shifing request, the most apparent motivator for the unrest is the lack of stability in energy and water supplies, the lack of jobs and a running economy, and the consequent increasing loss of confidence in the rebuilding efforts on the part of the Iraqi populace.
The outcome of the continued growing instability may depend largely on the outcome of the American election.
If Bush Wins
If Bush wins, he will continue to fail to get the international community to contribute the badly needed -- and already promised -- funds for the Iraqi rebuilding efforts. The "coalition" efforts will remain at around 90% American troops, funds and contractors, and 10% coalition resources (which is the present scenario). This is because Bush has lost credibility in the eyes of the international community by: a) a host of arrogant and insulting actions toward the international community both before and after the war; and b) rushing into the war prematurely, without first building a more solid international effort (which, as will be seen, is critical to the success of any such campaign, like it or not) and without a reasonable rebuilding/exit strategy.
As the crisis in Iraq continues to deepen, anti-Western sentiments throughout the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Northern Africa will continue grow. An increasing number of Muslim countries will have backlash rebellions with fundamentalist goverments being installed. Countries in the process of democratization, which are already on the brink of giving in to the fundamentalist backlash, such as Iran, will in fact install fundamentalist regimes. The series of democratic collapses will arise largely from the perception that democratization is synonymous with American global influence and empire-building.
As anti-Americanism deepens, Allawi will come to be seen as a puppet of the American global influence. His legitimacy in the eyes of the Iraqi constiuency will wane. It is possible if not likely that a more radical, anti-American leader will be elected, or that the attempts to democratize in the midst of growing instability will collapse altogether, making Iraq one of the domino nations to revert to a radical regime.
Bush, now in a quandry as international and now American sentiments grow increasingly against him, will spin these developments as a failure of the international community to act in concert with the United States against terrorism. He will therefore continue his single-handed crusade to spread democracy throughout the world, whether it is ready for it or not. He will continue to insist that his actions have been right and take further consistent actions to prove it. He will move to invade either Syria or Iran, and he will probably have to do it alone or with little international support, since the global sentiments over his mishandling of the situation in Iraq will discourage even the level of participation (10%) represented in the Iraqi war and rebuilding efforts. And the entire downward spiraling process will continue, as more nations rebel, more Western nations react negatively against the continued push for a failing plan, and terrorist attacks continue to increase globally, including in the United States.
Bush will have little internal resistance to this plan. This is because the multilateral influences in the Cabinet are removed or resigned (such as Powell) and the American security and intelligence forces are consolidated under Porter Goss, who will be a member of the Cabinet. Goss' membership in the Cabinet, in essence an advisor to himself as well as the president, will lose a substantial degree of objectivity (which currently exists because the intelligence entities are a separate body from the administration.) The international community will remain reluctant or become increasigly so in their willingness to cooperate with the United States in its "war on terrorism."
If Kerry Wins
If Kerry wins the election, he may have a better chance of avoiding the downward spiral for several reasons. Primarily, the international sentiments, while still negative toward the United States' actions in Iraq, will see Kerry as a new spokesman who takes an entirely different approach to international relations and American foreign policy than Bush. He has not taken actions which damage his credibility in the eyes of that community, as Bush has. The nations will be much more willing to deal with him, and thus with the U.S., than they would with Bush.
Thus, Kerry's efforts to build a more legitimate international coalition in the efforts to rebuild Iraq will be more successful. The 90% representation in the rebuilding efforts, including ground troops, funds and contractors, will begin to reduce as more nations become willing to play in Iraq. Thus, water and electricity will succesffuly be restored. Iraq will stabilize more quickly, and Allawi's legimacy will have a greater chance of survival.
As international support continues to increase, the rebuilding efforts will begin to stabilize, the economy will start operating more efficiently, and Iraqis will go back to work. Iraq will be seen less and less as a target for terrorist insurgence, which will diminish over time. Iraqi security forces, now effectively trained through growing international efforts and funds, will be more and more responsible for, and successful in, their own peace-keeping efforts. Eventually, Kerry will be able to extricate the U.S. from its involvement in Iraq.
The backlash of collapsing governments in the process of attempting to democratize will continue, albeit at a slower rate than they would if Bush were re-elected. Kerry will not take this trend as an excuse to invade another country, and the global anti-Western sentiments, and thus terrorist attacks, will not be fuelled by continuing American imposition and perceived empir-building activities because they will not be undertaken by Kerry.
Meanwhile, Kerry will fire Goss, appoint a more moderate director (Powell, perhaps???) and push to keep the intelligence entity separate from the administration in the process of its reformation. Kerry will, however, continue to support the reformation of the American intelligence system to unify it under a single umbrella. If successful, American intelligence will continue to improve, the dismantling of terrorist cells will be more successful. Because Kerry has greater elgitimacy in the eyes of the international community, international cooperation in the efforts against terrorism will increase, and become more and more successful. Bin Laden will eventually be found.
Next time: CHAPTER TWO: SUDAN
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binabik
Responsible
Legendary Hero
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posted October 04, 2004 10:33 PM |
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Quote:
But if the prez is incumbent, I guess that wouldn't bn necessary.
I believe an incumbent still gets sworn in again.
Hey, name a single politition who remembers what they swore to four years ago.
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Lord_Woock
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
Daddy Cool with a $90 smile
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posted October 04, 2004 10:40 PM |
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w00t, 2005 is also the year of the Polish presidential election  Kwasniewski's been president for ten years now, wonder who'll replace him
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Yolk and God bless.
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My buddy's doing a webcomic and would certainly appreciate it if you checked it out!
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