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Heroes Community > Other Side of the Monitor > Thread: Laelth's Election Projection
Thread: Laelth's Election Projection [ This thread is 3 pages long: (1) 2 3 ]
Laelth
Laelth


Famous Hero
Laelth rhymes with stealth.
posted October 30, 2004 04:11 AM

Laelth's Election Projection

I have crunched the numbers, and I am now ready to make my official prediction.  I maintain that the polls that come out on the Friday before the election are sufficient to determine who will win.  Little, if anything, is likely to change the minds of a significant number of voters at this point.  First, here's what the national electoral college map ought to look like based upon current polling trends (measured solely by likely voters):



Since we know, however, that polls that include only likely voters must ignore newly-registered voters and voters who lack a home land-line telephone, a further analysis is necessary to account for the massive Democratic advantage in registering new voters for this election (as well as orchestrated suppression efforts on the other side).  Based upon all the factors at my disposal, this is my prediction:





Methodology:

This projection assumes Ralph Nader and other candidates will get roughly 1% of the popular vote nationwide.  The remaining 99% of the votes are distributed among the two major candidates, George W. Bush and John Kerry.  Individual state figures were calculated by linear projection of current polling trends, as predicted in state polls, assuming that 70% of undecided voters will vote for Kerry while 30% will vote for Bush.  These figures are further adjusted by four factors:  1) the state's popular vote for President in the 2000 election, assuming that states that went for the Democrat last time will be more likely to vote for a Democrat again, and vise versa; 2) the party in control of the governor's office of the state, presuming that the state's bureaucracy will give a slight advantage to that party's candidate; 3) known efforts to suppress the popular votes in selected states; and 4) voter outrage over suppression efforts in the 2000 election expressed in specific states.  My calculations assume a 68% national turn-out of registered voters for this election.

Analysis:

Quite simply, Kerry should win.  While both Ohio and Florida will be close, Republican efforts to suppress the vote in those states will likely not be enough to overcome the Democrats' huge gains in registered voters across the nation.  In my final projection, John Kerry can lose both of these states and still win the election.  Perhaps the real surprise of this election is that while Republicans have been concentrating their voter suppression efforts in key battleground states, a number of Southern and border states presumed to be solidly in Bush's camp (AR, LA, NC, VA, and WV) have been quietly trending blue, and these states, I predict, will go for Kerry based upon significant gains in newly registered voters that are not accounted for in the polls. I consider my 68% national turn-out estimate to be conservative.  If 70% or more of all registered voters turn-out to vote, Kerry can expect to pick up Arizona, Indiana, and Mississippi.  If 72% or more of all registered voters turn out to vote, Kerry has a chance to pick up Alabama, Georgia, and Nevada as well.

I am curious to hear what others are predicting.  If you want to be critical, please have the courage to make a prediction of your own.    

-Laelth
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Alan P. Taylor, Attorney at Law, LLC

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The_Gootch
The_Gootch


Honorable
Supreme Hero
Kneel Before Me Sons of HC!!
posted October 30, 2004 07:16 PM

You are far too optimistic Laelth.  I see several other states swinging Bush's way come election day.
Among them...

Florida(27)
North Carolina(15)
Virginia(13)
West Virginia(5)
Minnesota(10)
Colorado(9)
Missouri(11)
Ohio(20)
Louisiana(9)

Thus giving Bush 278 electoral college votes and the presidency.

The two biggest states here, Ohio and Florida, are the only hopes for Kerry to win the election.  If he can get one of those states, and I don't think he can, he'll win.

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Laelth
Laelth


Famous Hero
Laelth rhymes with stealth.
posted October 30, 2004 08:06 PM

Thanks for taking a stand.

My prediction mat be too optimistic, or it might not be.  We'll see.  I would note, however, that on the Friday before the election in 2000, Bush was beating Gore by an average of 5% in nearly every poll, and Gore still ended up winning the popular vote.  This year Bush leads Kerry in most polls by only 1% or 2%.  In fact, Zogby's poll today shows Kerry with a 1% lead.  I also consider the fact that Democrats have out-registered new voters by a 2-1 majority.  Finally, the Bush presidency has been an unmitigated disaster.

The polls were wrong in 2000, and they're even more wrong this time.

Kerry in a landslide!

-Laelth
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Alan P. Taylor, Attorney at Law, LLC

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Wolfman
Wolfman


Responsible
Supreme Hero
Insomniac
posted October 30, 2004 08:16 PM

I'm working on my prediction report, so just you wait.
Having a problem for some reason.  I count the number of electoral votes in each state on CNN's map and come up with 538, like I'm suppoed to.  But then, I add up the votes of the states I think will be won by Bush and add them to the number for Kerry, and I get 540.  Every time, I just don't get it...
I'll have it posted later today though, after I figure out this error.
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Wolfman
Wolfman


Responsible
Supreme Hero
Insomniac
posted October 30, 2004 09:20 PM

I made my predictions based on a number of things, including how the polls look now and how the states went in the past.  Especially the 2000 election.


According to the polls CNN has in each of the states, this is about how things stand:

Dark Blue = Kerry
Lighter Blue = Probably Kerry
Light Blue = Maybe Kerry
Gray = Swing State
Light Red = Maybe Bush
Lighter Red = Probably Bush
Dark Red = Bush

In the 2000 election this is how the states were won:

Blue = Gore
Red = Bush

I, unlike Lealth, think it will be very close.  


My figures are off by two Electoral Votes (I still can’t figure out why, I’ve added them probably a hundred times…) but I see Bush = 280 Kerry = 260
Even if two votes are taken away from either candidate Bush will win.  You have to take into account the “unfaithful electors” too.  In 2000, Gore lost an Electoral Vote from D.C.  The elector said she thought D.C. should have more votes, so she didn’t vote.  Doesn’t really make sense to me, but…whatever.
And D.C. usually goes to the Democrat so (still using these flawed figures) it could be Bush = 280 Kerry = 259  Bush still wins.

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bort
bort


Honorable
Supreme Hero
Discarded foreskin of morality
posted October 30, 2004 10:29 PM

Wow, Laelth, you're pretty optimistic there.

The only hard and fast prediction I'll make is : We will not know who the president will be when we wake up on November 3rd. (Oh, and that Kerry will win the Popular vote)

My own "projection" (guess) has it all depending on the outcome of the Colorado electoral college split vote (and the subsequent court battle).

-Ohio will go Kerry
-Pennsylvania will go Kerry
-NH will go Kerry
-Florida will go Bush
-WVA will go Bush
-Wisconsin will go Bush
-Iowa will go Bush


Colorado now looks like it will probably go Kerry which would give him 271 if everything else goes as expected (MI, HI Kerry, AZ, NM Bush) BUT, if Colorado votes to split their votes, that would go 5 Kerry, 4 Bush which would put Bush at 272.  Since this helps Bush, the supreme court would allow it (I would agree with this decision on the part of the supreme court, however, I know that if the split helps Kerry, they'll strike it down.)

Various fights will go on over Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin for quite some time.  In the end, the Republican "Suppress the Vote" campaign will have been successfull and Bush will be appointed president.
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Wolfman
Wolfman


Responsible
Supreme Hero
Insomniac
posted October 30, 2004 11:28 PM
Edited By: Wolfman on 30 Oct 2004

There is one more thing to consider.  There is a student news magazine that puts out a poll for the election.  The results of this poll has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1956.  The results of the poll this time:  Bush 66%  Kerry 32%

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Don't assume you know anything
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Best idea would be to ask.

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Vadskye91
Vadskye91


Promising
Supreme Hero
Back again
posted October 30, 2004 11:48 PM

Yes, but the sale of scary masks, which have also correctly predicted the election, shows Kerry in the lead.
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Knowledge is power...

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bort
bort


Honorable
Supreme Hero
Discarded foreskin of morality
posted October 30, 2004 11:54 PM

Ah, but... the Nickelodeon kids poll which also correctly predicts the election gave Kerry the lead... An AL baseball victory is a reasonably good predictor of a republican win, but... the last times the Sox won in an election year, a democrat, Woodrow Wilson won... the most important predictor, though, is whether or not the Redskins win their last home game before the election, a win has always meant victory for the incumbent party.  Luckily, I spent all my money on hiring a bunch of hookers to keep the 'skins players up all night, so this one is in the bag.

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Drive by posting.

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Laelth
Laelth


Famous Hero
Laelth rhymes with stealth.
posted October 31, 2004 12:51 AM

Interesting theories out there.

Wolfman, try this tool.  

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6028629/

Go to the "Pick 'em" tab.  Might give you better mathematical results.

I won't deny that what you're predicting is possible ... with the exception of NH.  A massive Nader vote is the only thing that gave NH to Bush last time.  The lefties that voted for Nader last time have learned their lesson, I suspect.  Voting for Nader is a vote for Bush.  I can't see any way Bush will win NH.

As for the rest, we'll have to see.  Let's hope we have an answer by Nov. 3.

-Laelth
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Alan P. Taylor, Attorney at Law, LLC

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csarmi
csarmi


Supreme Hero
gets back
posted October 31, 2004 07:52 AM

What is NH?

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Laelth
Laelth


Famous Hero
Laelth rhymes with stealth.
posted October 31, 2004 03:07 PM

csarmi,

NH is the state of "New Hampshire."  If you look at Wolfman's map, you see one little red state in a sea of blue in the Northeastern United States.  That's New Hampshire.  It went for Bush in 2000, and Wolfman seems to think it will again this year.  I have my doubts about that.

-Laelth
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Alan P. Taylor, Attorney at Law, LLC

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Wolfman
Wolfman


Responsible
Supreme Hero
Insomniac
posted October 31, 2004 03:34 PM

We shall see, hopefully, in 3 days...
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Don't assume you know anything
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bort
bort


Honorable
Supreme Hero
Discarded foreskin of morality
posted November 01, 2004 02:26 AM

Packers 28 Redskins 14

Stick a fork in Bush, he's done.

(Note to any FBI or Secret Service agents reading this : I in no way mean to imply physical harm should be done to Bush.  That was simply a figure of speech, using a cooking analogy to describe Bush's current election prospects.)

The Redskins became the Redskins in 1933, since then, they have correctly predicted every single presidential election.  That's a better track record than any polls and even a better track record than the popular vote!

On a more serious note, the more I think about it the more I have no clue who the president will be next year.  It really can go either way.
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Consis
Consis


Honorable
Legendary Hero
Of Ruby
posted November 01, 2004 05:34 AM

LoL

Quote:
(Note to any FBI or Secret Service agents reading this : I in no way mean to imply physical harm should be done to Bush. That was simply a figure of speech, using a cooking analogy to describe Bush's current election prospects.)

bort, I don't think you have to spell it out for them anymore. Don't worry. If they wanted to get you then they would have already done it for your political positions pertaining to fishsauce pixies and butterscotch underpants gnomes. The F.B.I. probably already has you on their national watch list. You might as well come clean old bean. Lay it all out on the table. Give em what-for. And that's not even the accounting of your documented SUV opposition. Yeah, I'd say your days are numbered. I say go out with a bang.
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Roses Are RedAnd So Am I

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terje_the_ma...
terje_the_mad_wizard


Responsible
Supreme Hero
Disciple of Herodotus
posted November 01, 2004 04:07 PM

Quote:
NH is the state of "New Hampshire."  If you look at Wolfman's map, you see one little red state in a sea of blue in the Northeastern United States.  That's New Hampshire.  It went for Bush in 2000, and Wolfman seems to think it will again this year.  I have my doubts about that.

Isn't NH one of the states with the wealthiest population? And which party usually gets the millionaire votes?
____________
"Sometimes I think everyone's just pretending to be brave, and none of us really are. Maybe pretending to be brave is how you get brave, I don't know."
- Grenn, A Storm of Swords.

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sirzapdos
sirzapdos


Promising
Famous Hero
Open the pod bay doors, Hal.
posted November 01, 2004 06:36 PM

Isn't Connecticut a particularly affluent state as well? If so, then shouldn't they have gone red in 2000, by your logic? Maybe it was a fluke, where Nader split the lefty votes, allowing the righty (Bush) to claim an easy win. Kinda like Perot and Bush Senior, but other side of the spectrum.

PS Why is the GOP red, and the Democrats blue? When I see red, I think of fire, burning and hell. I mean, it's kind of appropriate, but is there any real reason? Same goes for the Elephant and the Donkey. What's the deal?
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So I try to live a complicated world...

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bort
bort


Honorable
Supreme Hero
Discarded foreskin of morality
posted November 02, 2004 04:04 PM

With 0% of the precincts reporting, Fox News is projecting Bush 100%, Kerry 1%.  There is, however, a 1% margin of error.
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sirzapdos
sirzapdos


Promising
Famous Hero
Open the pod bay doors, Hal.
posted November 02, 2004 04:55 PM

Haha! Good one! I saw a documentary last night about Fox News. It was called "Outfoxed: Rupert Murdoch's War on Journalism." I think whoever came up with the slogan "Fair and Balanced" should be locked away for a long time. And that Bill O'Reilly is quite a character. I can honestly say I've never seen an on-air celebrity who is more, um, shall we say, psychotic.
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So I try to live a complicated world...

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ratmonky
ratmonky


Famous Hero
Abu Hur Ibn Rashka
posted November 02, 2004 05:13 PM
Edited By: ratmonky on 2 Nov 2004

there is an online electoral college calculator that you can play with
here's the link
http://www.grayraven.com/ec/
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Dies illa, dies irae,
Calamitatis et miseriae.
Requiem aeternum
Dona eis, dona eis Domine.

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