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Heroes Community > Tavern of the Rising Sun > Thread: 2006 FIFA World Cup Germany
Thread: 2006 FIFA World Cup Germany This thread is 11 pages long: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 · «PREV / NEXT»
Lord_Pc
Lord_Pc


Promising
Famous Hero
Groin-Grabingly Clever
posted June 14, 2006 02:04 PM

croatia are good but they dont have a big weapon IMO. australia has a solid midfield with cahill, kewell and breciano all if whom can score goals which should break croatia down. it will all come down to who scores first and how the teams play out thier subs.

dont think it is clear cut for croatia
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Da-da-dada-HEY-dada-da-da

Two goldfish were in their tank. One turns to the other and says, 'You man the guns, I'll drive.'

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Ecoris
Ecoris


Promising
Supreme Hero
posted June 14, 2006 02:49 PM
Edited by Ecoris at 14:50, 14 Jun 2006.

Quote:
dont think it is clear cut for croatia
Here are what the bookmakers think (and they are usually right, after all that's their job):
Croatia - Australia
_________1_______X_______2__
Average_1.90____3.24____3.86
Highest_2.00____3.25____4.00
Lowest__1.83____3.20____3.75


Not a walk-over but Croatia is surely the favourite.

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Lord_Pc
Lord_Pc


Promising
Famous Hero
Groin-Grabingly Clever
posted June 14, 2006 02:53 PM

never said anything about australia being favourites, just that australia will give croatia a good run, dont expect a walk over
____________
Da-da-dada-HEY-dada-da-da

Two goldfish were in their tank. One turns to the other and says, 'You man the guns, I'll drive.'

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Ecoris
Ecoris


Promising
Supreme Hero
posted June 14, 2006 02:59 PM

I was reffering to DarkTitan's post. I expect Croatia to dominate the game.

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dimis
dimis


Responsible
Supreme Hero
Digitally signed by FoG
posted June 16, 2006 03:12 AM

An assistant while planning

(1) I try not to bet in my real life because it is addictive.

(2) Nevertheless, I can't help it these days and hence betting is part of my daily routine. There are times I find attractive more than one scenarios likely to happen on a series of events (or even one event = one match). After spending hours with calculators and extensive use of paper and pencil, I decided it was about time I made a program to help me out and make my life easier.

(3) Here we go then:
Suppose that I am willing to bet on 2 possible scenarios:
First one (scenario A) with a factor of let's say 1.9.
Second one (scenario B) with a factor of let's say 2.3.
Unfortunatelly, although I am willing to lose my bet on unfortunate scenarios (make sure you agree with that), I believe it is equally likely that scenarios A or B arise (one excludes the other) or I want to achieve same amount of profit if I am lucky enough and one of these shows up. So, what I want, is to find the correct proportion of my bets on scenarios A and B so that I receive same amount of money whichever of the two occurs.
According to these my behaviour would be to bet approximately 1.21 : 1.00 on the above bets, i.e. if I was willing to risk $4.42 I would bet $2.42 on scenario A and $2.00 on scenario B. These two (one excludes the other) behave like a single bet with approximately 1.04 (joint) factor.

(4) Anyway, as the number of scenarios increases this procedure becomes frustrating/boring/etc and you end up spending sometimes large amounts of your (free?) time for various number-oriented tasks. For all of you who were also bored as I have been till now, you can find the source code of a program that does these jobs here.
Win-executable: here.

(5) Sample execution:
The name of the program is equal_expectations (for obvious reasons); so on a command line you give for the above example:
Quote:
> equal expectations 4.42 1.9 2.3
and the result is:
Quote:
Joint Factor   : 1.040476
Cash           : 4.42
Expected Profit: 0.179

Betting Proportions:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1.210526  :  1.000000

Money Split:
~~~~~~~~~~~~
2.420476  :  1.999524

Good Luck on your selections!

which gives you the idea of what I described above.

(6) Explanation on the numbers you put beyond the executable name on command prompt:
1st one refers to your cash.
Rest refer to various factors for various bets.
I believe the rest are self exlpanatory.
Note: Of course, you can use it for more than two scenarios!

(7) So, if you are feeling lucky and want to bet $5-$6 on 3-4 variations of let's say 5 consecutive matches (so that your variations have high enough factors) you can use the above program and skip those painful calculations by hand. But always remember: Consider your bet lost once you bet! If you win, THEN you actually receive some cash and the feeling of "beating up the agents!" In other words, this program is meant to make our life easier and not worse...

(8) Good luck to all of you on your bets!

- dimis -
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The empty set

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The_Gootch
The_Gootch


Honorable
Supreme Hero
Kneel Before Me Sons of HC!!
posted June 16, 2006 03:29 AM
Edited by The_Gootch at 03:31, 16 Jun 2006.

My brother is getting married in a few weeks and in lieu of a regular bachelor party he asked me to come over this weekend to watch games and play Heroes V with him.

*sigh* my beloved US team members looked like pantywaists against a terrific Czech team.  I can't wait to see them get drubbed against Italy on Saturday.

My prediction is going to be 4-0 Italy with several US members kicking themselves off the team as a response.  This will happen before we get a chance to lose against Ghana and make it a perfect trifecta for our group in this world cup.

Vive la England you limey bastards!

Btw, Tunisia vs. Saudi Arabia rocked.

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Lord_Crusader
Lord_Crusader


Promising
Supreme Hero
UHU!! supreme!
posted June 17, 2006 09:52 PM

Quote:
My brother is getting married in a few weeks and in lieu of a regular bachelor party he asked me to come over this weekend to watch games and play Heroes V with him.

*sigh* my beloved US team members looked like pantywaists against a terrific Czech team.  I can't wait to see them get drubbed against Italy on Saturday.

My prediction is going to be 4-0 Italy with several US members kicking themselves off the team as a response.  This will happen before we get a chance to lose against Ghana and make it a perfect trifecta for our group in this world cup.

Vive la England you limey bastards!

Btw, Tunisia vs. Saudi Arabia rocked.


Half Time ITALY VS USA... and we have a great boxing game so far  
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Dig Out Your Soul

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SirDunco
SirDunco


Responsible
Supreme Hero
posted June 18, 2006 06:37 PM

I'm hoping that the Socceroos can pull off something today against Brazil So far it's still 0-0
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this_other_guy
this_other_guy


Famous Hero
{0_o} heh...
posted June 18, 2006 08:19 PM

Goddamn it.. i stayed up till 4am to watch them crash and burn -_-
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1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d

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SirDunco
SirDunco


Responsible
Supreme Hero
posted June 18, 2006 09:05 PM

Too bad Viduka didn't convert right berofe Brazil's second goal.

Actualy Brazil has been a big let down. So far they haven't shown much of anything.
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detheroc
detheroc


Adventuring Hero
noticed my 2 weeks miss?
posted June 18, 2006 11:33 PM

And now the latest result: France- South Korea 1-1

So France really look now that they could miss again enetering the next round, which would really suck for them and would deffinetly put an end to their 1337 team reputation. As for the asians they are very close to qualify again in the second round(a draw vs Swiss would do) and who knows, maybe they could repeat the semifinal from the previous tournament.

As for me, well, let's say that Holland and the Czech were too much for Romania to handle.

And for all aussies around here, GL, I really like your team(dunno exactly why, perhaps of their status of total outsiders) and hope for it to qualify to the next round

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Ecoris
Ecoris


Promising
Supreme Hero
posted June 19, 2006 12:38 PM
Edited by Ecoris at 12:47, 19 Jun 2006.

Quote:
As for the asians they are very close to qualify again in the second round(a draw vs Swiss would do) [..]
No, it depends on the goal difference. If Switzerland wins with more than one goal today a draw in the last round will not do.
Quote:
[..] and who knows, maybe they could repeat the semifinal from the previous tournament .
I don't hope so. After all they only reached the semifinals in 2002 because the referees (not intentionally) helped them a lot. It was a scandal .

Quote:
Actualy Brazil has been a big let down. So far they haven't shown much of anything.
I agree. But this characterises teams that do well in tournaments like the world cup; they make sure their form peaks during the cup stage. Just think about 2002. Everybody thought Argentina or France would win. Argentina had played fantastic during the south american qualification and France were the ruling champions. Brazil on the other hand ended on a 4th place in the south american qualification, thus only barely qualified. But what happened? Argentina couldn't keep their form going and didn't even make it past the group stage.

What if Argentina already played their best game this time?

I think Brazil played better vs Australia than vs Croatia. They are improving steadily. Don't underestimate them

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angelito
angelito


Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
proud father of a princess
posted June 19, 2006 01:25 PM

If the Czech will beat Italy in 3rd game, Italy will have to face Brazil in 1/8 finals....
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.

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Ecoris
Ecoris


Promising
Supreme Hero
posted June 19, 2006 02:32 PM
Edited by Ecoris at 14:36, 19 Jun 2006.

Not if Ghana beats USA, then Azurri are out

But if Germany doesn't win against Ecuador they're likely to meet England .

BTW, I'm 80% sure that Sweden and England will play 0-0.

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Lord_Pc
Lord_Pc


Promising
Famous Hero
Groin-Grabingly Clever
posted June 19, 2006 02:38 PM

i remember hearing that the winner of the group with Bra, Aus, Cro and Japan would have a really easy road to the semis.

so if japan draw with brazil, brazil could have a bunch of easy matches through to the semis
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Da-da-dada-HEY-dada-da-da

Two goldfish were in their tank. One turns to the other and says, 'You man the guns, I'll drive.'

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Ecoris
Ecoris


Promising
Supreme Hero
posted June 19, 2006 02:50 PM
Edited by Ecoris at 14:51, 19 Jun 2006.

Wikipedia has got a nice table here.

It might not be that easy however. Brazil will surely win their group (no offense meant, Aussies).

They will then play the runner up from group E. This can be any of the following teams: Czech Republic, Italy, USA or Ghana. (Ghana is my runner up favourite). But it's not unlikely that Czech Republic or even Italy will finish second in group E.

In the quarter final they play against the winner of H1 vs G2. Spain - France is very likely...

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Dragon_Slayer
Dragon_Slayer


Honorable
Supreme Hero
toss toss toss
posted June 19, 2006 03:45 PM

Quote:
My prediction is going to be 4-0 Italy with several US members kicking themselves off the team as a response.  This will happen before we get a chance to lose against Ghana and make it a perfect trifecta for our group in this world cup.


Guess you were wrong. Italy couldnt convert and left with a 1-1 draw. Maybe we have yet to see USA's full potential.

About the Brazil Aus game, although we lost, we put up a great fight that is to be proud of. If we just slotted home some of those shots........ cough KEWELL cough... we may have even won, or drew.
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Ecoris
Ecoris


Promising
Supreme Hero
posted June 19, 2006 05:06 PM

Quote:
we may have even won, or drew
Oh please. You did well playing with many men behind the ball. Still yoy need to take Brazil's form into account. First half was boooooring but in the second half Brazil played with much more anticipation and got a well deserved 2-0 victory. Your defense did not look very good when Adriano scored. He was allowed way to much space no one was close to him. You had some good scoring opportunities but never really threatened Brazil.
Unfortunately I think you're going to lose when you play Croatia...

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Lord_Pc
Lord_Pc


Promising
Famous Hero
Groin-Grabingly Clever
posted June 20, 2006 08:16 AM

i do think that if kewell had scored from that oppourtunity the game would have become alot more open. brazil would have to push forward to score and win and australia could break with counter attacks when the 2 full backs carlos and cafu (were they the ones that played?) pushed to far forward

goals at certain points can change matches. too bad kewell doesnt know this
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Da-da-dada-HEY-dada-da-da

Two goldfish were in their tank. One turns to the other and says, 'You man the guns, I'll drive.'

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angelito
angelito


Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
proud father of a princess
posted June 20, 2006 09:40 AM
Edited by angelito at 09:42, 20 Jun 2006.

Quote:
...But if Germany doesn't win against Ecuador they're likely to meet England....

I would be ok with that, coz what England has shown so far was quite poor. Lucky win against Paraguay and a late win vs TnT with a 1-0 which shouldn´t had counted coz Crouch fouled the defender by pulling his "ponytail". So bring them on..
P.S.: And btw...Germany lost only ONE match vs England in tournament history so far...final game 1966....with the famous (not!) goal..
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.

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