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Corribus
Hero of Order
The Abyss Staring Back at You
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posted June 24, 2010 02:25 PM |
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Theory hardly ever lives up to reality. In theory if you flip a coin ten times you should get 5 heads and 5 tails, every time. We all know that this is not the case.
Sorry, but you just failed statistics.
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del_diablo
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posted June 24, 2010 02:53 PM |
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Elodin: Source and proper logic behind your claims, please?
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Azagal
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posted June 24, 2010 03:02 PM |
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Edited by Azagal at 15:02, 24 Jun 2010.
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Quote:
Sorry, but you just failed statistics.
OH SNAP!!
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"All I can see is what's in front of me. And all I can do is keep moving forward" - The Heir Wielder of Names, Seeker of Thrones, King of Swords, Breaker of Infinities, Wheel Smashing Lord
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mvassilev
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posted June 24, 2010 05:41 PM |
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JJ:
I understand about NRU, but the natural rate is much smaller than it is under government restrictions. Sure, there are people in between jobs, and so on, but when there are employers willing to hire people, and there are employees willing to work for them for those wages, and yet they can't - that's clearly the government's fault.
Quote:
encompass economical damage (ruination)
Explain what you mean by this.
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Eccentric Opinion
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ohforfsake
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posted June 24, 2010 05:54 PM |
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Quote:
Quote:
Theory hardly ever lives up to reality. In theory if you flip a coin ten times you should get 5 heads and 5 tails, every time. We all know that this is not the case.
Sorry, but you just failed statistics.
Maybe Mytical meant different theory or a different type of coin.
Joke aside, I don't think there's much argument in reality does not live up to theory. Theory, as I usually understand the word, is the best fit description of reality to the environment in question. Just as an example, you can say Newtons laws don't fit reality, because at certain conditions/environment they do not hold, but they hold for the region/conditions/environment most often specified.
In general, as long as the theory, a best fit to describe the given event, is not used outside of its limits, it doesn't really matter if it doesn't fit reality outside those limits.
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JollyJoker
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posted June 24, 2010 06:06 PM |
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Quote:
Quote:
encompass economical damage (ruination)
Explain what you mean by this.
(Cutthroat) Competetition that ends with someone being thrown out of business, for example.
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mvassilev
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posted June 24, 2010 06:27 PM |
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I don't see anything wrong with that. Consumer choice =/= harm.
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JollyJoker
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posted June 24, 2010 08:09 PM |
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Cutthroat competetion and business practics have nothing to do with consumer choice but with destroying the competetion - war, so-to-speak.
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mvassilev
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posted June 24, 2010 08:11 PM |
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JollyJoker
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posted June 24, 2010 08:32 PM |
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Except the consumers working for the ruined business and their families, their owners and/or share-holders, those they are owing money, those who had business ties with...
If a gang breaks into a bank, steals money and distribute a big chunk of it to the people nearby, consumers profit as well.
The coin "low prices" has two sides - prices can get too low.
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shyranis
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posted June 24, 2010 08:45 PM |
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Prices rise as competition drops out and monopolies form though.
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Mytical
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posted June 24, 2010 09:51 PM |
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Quote:
Sorry, but you just failed statistics.
I assume you are talking about expected value, and how long term yes things tend to balance out. I am talking just 10 flips..the odds are 50/50 so 'theoretically' it should be 5/5..but that is very rarely the case.
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JollyJoker
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posted June 24, 2010 10:10 PM |
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Umm, not at all.
You have to see the number of all possibilities how the cpoins could fall:
HHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHT
HHHHHHHHTH
HHHHHHHTHH
and so on you have 2>10 possibilities = 1024
Only 252 possibilities out of these will see 5/5 distribtion less than 25%.
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Corribus
Hero of Order
The Abyss Staring Back at You
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posted June 25, 2010 12:48 AM |
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Quote:
I assume you are talking about expected value, and how long term yes things tend to balance out. I am talking just 10 flips..the odds are 50/50 so 'theoretically' it should be 5/5..but that is very rarely the case.
You just failed again!!!
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del_diablo
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posted June 25, 2010 01:23 AM |
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Quote:
Quote:
Sorry, but you just failed statistics.
I assume you are talking about expected value, and how long term yes things tend to balance out. I am talking just 10 flips..the odds are 50/50 so 'theoretically' it should be 5/5..but that is very rarely the case.
The rule of statistic:
Without a completely insane number of tests, there will not be a useful result
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JollyJoker
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posted June 25, 2010 07:51 AM |
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This ain't statistics; it's about probabilities. If you flip a coin ten times there will be 1024 possible outcomes and only 252 of them will see a 5/5 distribution; (2 for 10/0, 20 for 9/1, 90 for 8/2, 240 for 7/3 and 420 for 6/4).
Which means, if you flipp a coin 10 times, chancess are pretty good the distribution will NOT be 5/5.
Now look at what happens with coin flipping:
with 2 flips there are 4 possibilities, 2 of them with 1/1 split: 50%
with 4 flips there are 16 posssibilities, 6 of them with a 2/2 split: 37.5%
with 6 flips there are 64 possibilities, 20 of them with a 3/3 split: 31.25%
with 8 flips there are 256 possibilities, 70 of them with 4/4 split: 27.34%....
with 16 flips there are 65536 possibilities, 12870 of them with 8/8 split: 19.64%
with 24 flips there are 16.777.216 possibilities, 2.704.156 of them with 12/12 split: 16.12%
This means, the more often you flip the coin, the SMALLER your expectation gets to see an even split.
You could probably make a game out of it: you get 4 coin flips: if you manage an even split, you get double your money, if not you lose. With a 37.5% chance to get the 2/2 split, the gamblers would lose heavily to the bank, probably cursing their luck. 
Is there a limit? Nope. The probability of the split will develop in much the same way then 2n/n>2, so we expect the probability of seeing an even split going against ZERO with infinite numbers of coin flips.
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mvassilev
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posted June 25, 2010 08:39 AM |
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JJ:
All businesses do not fail at the same time. Quite the opposite. A decrease in price creates a surplus for consumers, which they can spend or save, thus creating new jobs.
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JollyJoker
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posted June 25, 2010 09:55 AM |
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I faail to see your point, except that you are repeating what you already said.
You are always coming up with some THEORETIC statements that sound like brain-dead advertising slogans or the 1984 stuff, you know: war is peaace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength. This kind of stuff.
Practise is a different thing.
In practise, a free market doesn't work because of either monopolies building or price agreement (cheating).
Again in practise, because of that THE GOVERNMENT is to watch about it to avoid cheating, so that neither too massive monolopies build nor price agreements are made, dooming liberalism.
Of course, GOVERNMENT is a job as well and that job follows the same profit-greed-self-interest rule, so there is no reason why the government shouldn't cheat as well.
And that's basically all there is to say about it:
1) Economy is based on self-interest/greed
2) There is no counterbalance, ethically, with nearly the same power, only simple penalty
3) Success probability of cheating is all the bigger the bigger the economic power of the cheater, making cheating a viable option
4) Free flow of forces is disrupted by cheating
5) agencies tasked with watching over system follow the same motives
6) Watch is prone to cheat as well
=> system is rigged and not working as intended
Decisive lines are 2): There is no (business) ethics. and 3)chances to successfully cheat get better the higher up the economy ladder you are placed, simple because your operational resources are higher and because of interdependencies: if you are a big corp and massively in debt, you'll get more credit, because when you get broke not only the banks lose their money, but you'll probably take others with you (actual crisis scenario); if you are just a normal guy and can't pay your mortgage because you gambled in Vegas - say good-bye to hour house.
Not to mention the fact that each and every business idea and new product would actually have to be tested thoroughly for long-term effects - except that it isn't because no one can affortd (!) to wait that long, meaning, the system is HIGHLY LIKELY to produce MASSIVE hazards. And it does, right? Radioactive waste; oil polluting oceans and beaches, industrial waste polluting rivers, drinking water, foodstuff, medical drugs doing the same and having uncalculable side effects in combination and long-time use...
The list is endless.
ECONOMICALLY - your consumer pays up for that. The tax payer. With their money, their health and their life. The price to pay for a system based on greed without any counterweight to keep things in check.
By all means, that's a bad product to sell - but people just buy nonetheless.
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ohforfsake
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posted June 25, 2010 04:36 PM |
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JJ wrote:
Quote:
so we expect the probability of seeing an even split going against ZERO with infinite numbers of coin flips.
I understand your reasoning for a finite series, because there only one given set of possibilities are available so one can just check positive outcomes compared to the total and develop probabilities [that is, you won't be going through all possible series, only one and then you can check its frequency compared to what is defined as success]. However when going to infinite, I'm not certain zero even split is correct, the difference is, at infinite, you've went through all possible combinations of coin flips (after all, it never ends, it's infinite), and since there are just as many odd ones out for one side as for the other, in total, I'd say you'd actually have an even split at infinity (50/50), and all possible combinations of coin flips HTHHTHTH, THHTHTHTHTHHTHT, HTHHTTTHHHTHTHHHH, HT, THTHTH, etc will have happened. [That is, all possible combinations combined (not alone as in a finite amount of throws) gives an even split, because there's just as many extra H's combinations as extra T's combination and have equal extra of T's and H's as well, because it's a 50% chance].
Edit: To give an example. We have an infinite series of H's and T's. We both look at it, every time you can find an uncounted H, I can find an uncounted T, every time you can find an uncounted TT, I can find an uncounted HH.
In general, eventhough it's true that when looking through, the frequency of finding, let's say, the combinations HHHH (1), HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, THHHH (4), TTTH, TTHT, THTT, HTTT (4), TTTT (1) is higher than the frequency of finding HHTT, HTHT, THHT, THTH, HTTH, TTHH (6), of a factor of (4+4+1+1)/6 = 10/6, then for every time you can find a TTTH, or any other odd combination, I can find you a HHHT (or HTHH if you like) just as frequent, so we can conclude there are more sets of which alone produce an uneven split between T and H, but because T and H are equal likely, all uneven splits can be combined due to equal frequency and equal combination to actually equalize the amounts of T's and H's in an infinite series.
Okay those are just my thoughts, it's just because I think you made the conclusion about infinity too hasty, after all I don't think we can count to inifnite, like we can count to a finite number.
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Corribus
Hero of Order
The Abyss Staring Back at You
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posted June 25, 2010 05:30 PM |
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Quote:
Is there a limit? Nope. The probability of the split will develop in much the same way then 2n/n>2, so we expect the probability of seeing an even split going against ZERO with infinite numbers of coin flips.
Just to keep things in perspective: the probability of getting ANY kind of split approaches zero in the infinite limit, because any number divided by infinity approaches zero. In large numbers of trials it's much better to model probabilities with continuous probability functions rather than discrete distributions, in order to avoid misleading conclusions.
But anyway, that's way way way off topic.
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