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Heroes Community > Other Side of the Monitor > Thread: US Presidential Race 2012
Thread: US Presidential Race 2012 This thread is 59 pages long: 1 10 20 30 40 ... 46 47 48 49 50 ... 59 · «PREV / NEXT»
mvassilev
mvassilev


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Undefeatable Hero
posted October 08, 2012 10:25 PM



Gary Johnson 2012
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del_diablo
del_diablo


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Manifest
posted October 09, 2012 12:42 AM

Same group as Ron Paul, the man the fallen state needs.
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gnomes2169
gnomes2169


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Duke of the Glade
posted October 09, 2012 01:29 AM

Quote:
Quote:
Bill Vs Jon


The copyright demons took the video down...


*Table flip*
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Yeah in the 18th century, two inventions suggested a method of measurement. One won and the other stayed in America.
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Elodin
Elodin


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posted October 09, 2012 02:04 AM
Edited by Elodin at 02:06, 09 Oct 2012.

Voting for Johnson is throwing your vote away but that is your perogative. Romney is surging and will be the next president of the US. He's not the perfect choice but is the best of the two choices we have.

Clicky/

Quote:

National polling released Monday continues to demonstrate an apparent Mitt Romney surge, with the Republican nominee at least pulling even with President Obama -- and in one poll shooting past him -- on the heels of what Gallup deemed the biggest debate victory in recorded history.

New Gallup numbers show registered voters overwhelmingly considered Romney the winner of the debate in Denver. Seventy-two percent gave Romney the win, while 20 percent said Obama did the better job. Gallup reported the 52-point victory is the biggest the polling firm has ever measured -- the closest was Bill Clinton's 42-point win over George H.W. Bush in a 1992 debate.

The sentiment appeared to have big implications for Romney's national standing.

A separate Pew Research Center poll showed Romney surging from an 8-point deficit to a 4-point lead among likely voters. The Oct. 4-7 survey of 1,112 likely voters showed Romney leading 49-45 percent. Among registered voters, the two candidates were tied.

Gallup polling among registered voters in the three days after the debate also showed the candidates tied at 47 percent each. In the three days prior, Obama was leading by 5 points.

The Gallup numbers follow a national Rasmussen survey which showed Romney leading 49-47 percent. Rasmussen also released several swing-state polls on Friday showing Romney pulling roughly even with Obama in the wake of the debate.



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Corribus
Corribus

Hero of Order
The Abyss Staring Back at You
posted October 09, 2012 02:05 AM
Edited by Corribus at 02:06, 09 Oct 2012.

The Pew poll is significant.  Not only because it often leans left, but also because just a month they showed Obama up by 9%.
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gnomes2169
gnomes2169


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posted October 09, 2012 02:57 AM

And then we have Real Clear Politics, which takes all of the official polls and finds the average of them to give us the least biased statistics it can. Looks like Obama is still leading in most states, though not as solidly in some as before (Most notably Ohio). If you want to see the averages, then click on each state by name. Obama's total drop was two points in Ohio, which is a huge leap for a single debate. Very impressive Mr. Romney.Let's see if you can carry with this momentum you have... an equal showing in the next debate should make a larger impact.
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blizzardboy
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posted October 09, 2012 04:36 AM
Edited by blizzardboy at 04:58, 09 Oct 2012.

I think the debates are going to be fallout for the Democrat party on either the presidential or VP side of it. I can't see Biden outperforming Ryan. Ryan has had a leadership role in budget talks over the past years since Obama was in office and was an extremely wise pick on Romney's behalf. In 2008 McCain slapped on Sarah Palin as a shallow appeal to women and social equality. Romney/Ryan are two white guys running on the platform of raw merit. The televised debates are the potential mana from heaven for the GOP ticket. It's really their necessary opportunity to break Obama's small stranglehold in most of the swing states. I doubt Obama will perform quite as badly after the first debate, but he's never had much power behind his talking, which is important for the debate setting. You gotta be a shrewd SOB to command a debate. Bill Clinton knew how to debate.

Honestly, the Democrats would have had better odds of maintaining 2 straight terms if Hillary survived to the general election last time.
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Corribus
Corribus

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The Abyss Staring Back at You
posted October 09, 2012 05:15 AM

Obama has never been a great debater.  Hillary Clinton outdebated him in 2008 by a large margin, you might recall.  Obama is far better when it comes to delivering scripted speeches to a crowd.  He just can't think quickly on his feet, and that's what debating is all about.  In the last debate there were tons of things he should have said (factual or not), but you could tell when he took the mic that he just didn't really have a clue what to say.  It didn't help that Romney just prepared well and was good at adjusting to the flow of the conversation.  He also spoke directly to his opponent, something that Obama didn't feel comfortable doing (look at the body language - Obama barely ever even looked up, let alone looked at Romney).  Probably Romney's business experience helps a lot; we've seen that Romney is far less adept at doing what Obama does well - delivering a scripted speech to a crowd.  McCain wasn't a particularly great debater either, which is why Obama's weakness at it wasn't made very apparent in 2008 - except when he was going against Hillary, who obviously learned a thing or two from her husband.

True, I don't think Obama will fare as badly in the upcoming debates as he did in the most recent one.  He'll at least prepare for it.  But I still think Romney will outperform him handily.  Whether it's enough to compensate for eight months of uninspired speeches and mishandled campaign strategy... eh, I guess we'll have to see.  

As for Ryan/Biden.  Given Biden's past history of gaffes and Ryan's reputation for intellectual discourse, it might be tempting to give Ryan the victory right now.  But that matchup has all the makings of a trap game.  Ryan has never debated in such a big arena before and  frankly Ryan's performance so far in the campaign, like Romney's (aside from the debate), has been flat and underwhelming.  For a good looking guy he doesn't have a whole lot of charisma.  On the other hand, Biden, for all the stupid things that come out of his mouth, is a charismatic guy whom a lot of people like.  He's loud, got a warm hint of southern twang, and I could see him easily taking over the debate regardless of what he actually says.  In some ways he's a little like Bill Clinton, though (IMO) far less intelligent.  I wouldn't write him off.  One thing's for sure- it'll be an entertaining hour.
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blizzardboy
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posted October 09, 2012 05:27 AM
Edited by blizzardboy at 06:00, 09 Oct 2012.

A less intelligent version of Bill Clinton seems like a pretty accurate description of Biden. Very few people realize how immensely intelligent Bill Clinton is; he might have been the smartest president in US history. He's a genius in the literal sense of the word. He doesn't have a precise and yet simple way of talking because he lacks the necessary intuitive vocabulary. He's just that ****ing good.

I got my bet on a victory for Ryan though. Ryan hasn't been lovable on the campaign trail but this honestly isn't anything new. People, including Barack Obama, have gone out of their way to make jokes about Paul Ryan's lack of humor. He tears **** up in the House though. The debates will be his home territory imo.

I think the merit of both Romeny & Ryan is also important because, whether justified or not, there is an image of stupidity attached to the GOP in recent years, due to figures like Bush and Palin that still haven't bled out of people's contemporary memory. These two guys need to be able to hit hard in these formal debate settings with fiery cocks of tempered steel to counteract that prejudice that exists in people's minds. McCain didn't reinforce that image, but he was still the old geezer of the group (along with Ron Paul) and his speaking skills were fairly average as far as presidential candidates go.
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blizzardboy
blizzardboy


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posted October 10, 2012 07:39 AM
Edited by blizzardboy at 07:39, 10 Oct 2012.

Yep, **** is in a dead heat:

CNN: **** is in a dead heat
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Corribus
Corribus

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The Abyss Staring Back at You
posted October 10, 2012 06:03 PM

Apparently Obama lost the last debate because he was just too polite.  Funny, I thought it was the altitude.

Seriously, you can't make this stuff up.

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blizzardboy
blizzardboy


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posted October 11, 2012 03:49 AM
Edited by blizzardboy at 04:51, 11 Oct 2012.

I believe him when he says it. He tries too hard to appear like the nice guy that values national solidarity above anything else. It builds good sentiment and popularity in the primaries among a single party, but it's a joke to cling on to that demeanor in a general election. Face it: the country is unhealthily polarized. Ditch goodwill and solidarity while you're ahead of yourself Barack and equip your bearclaws. If he doesn't go into the next debates with an intent to murder, he's lost.

It really shows that Romney is a businessmen by vocation and Obama is a professor.

I again find myself going back to Hillary Clinton during her presidential run in '08. Not that I subscribe to Democrat views, but it seemed like such a ****ing obvious pick and they just pissed it out the window. The Dems needlessly put their chances of a double-term in danger when they picked Barack over Hillary. A Democrat victory in '08 was almost guaranteed, especially after McCain decided to pick an indigenous female Alaskan moose for a running mate, as some kind of last-ditch effort to make Democrat males horny enough to vote Republican, and gender-obsessed females blind enough to do the same. If she wasn't required to open her mouth at any point (a tragedy in itself for reasons entirely unrelated to talking), then his plan might have flew. Yet Hillary is a powerful, political careerist juggernaut whose nutsack is a multipurpose flail, and she could have cleaved her way into 2 terms no problem. She could have gone toe-to-toe against Romney, impressive of a speaker as he is, no problem. Too much n00bness coming from a greenhorn like Barack. He's been president for 4 years and he still acts like his pubes are freshly grown-in, and now the Dems are going up against a decent duo this time around. Romney has succeeded in sweeping his Mormonism into an issue of obscurity, and he's picked a congressmen of Wisconsin for a running mate. Very prudent. Iconic candidates from heavy red/blue states like Massachusetts (Kerry) or Alaska sux.
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Elodin
Elodin


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posted October 11, 2012 12:37 PM

Obama did not lose the debate because he is "too nice." He lost the debate because he lacks substance and is incapable of thinking on his feet. He has been doing attack ads like crazy while it is Romney who has been the nice guy who not gone negative nearly enough.  Debates are very bad for Obama. He is a charismatic speech giver when the speech is prewritten an on a teleprompter but that does not help in a debate. Oh, and Obama already gave an excuse that he lost the debate "because Romney is a liar."  Nah Obama is not a nice guy and certainly did not lose the debate because he was "too nice."

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del_diablo
del_diablo


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Manifest
posted October 11, 2012 02:24 PM

Quote:
Voting for Johnson is throwing your vote away but that is your perogative.


Better than voting for Mr. "Didn't get a lot done as Promised" and Mr. "Won't really make a difference".
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blizzardboy
blizzardboy


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posted October 12, 2012 03:02 AM
Edited by blizzardboy at 03:57, 12 Oct 2012.

Margaritas. Check.
Pizza. Check.
Pants. Check.

edit: I wish Ryan would have done something while Biden was speaking other than sit there and smile at him.
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Corribus
Corribus

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The Abyss Staring Back at You
posted October 12, 2012 05:22 AM
Edited by Corribus at 05:23, 12 Oct 2012.

Quick impressions of VP debate:

Overall I judge it to be a push.  Biden was far stronger than Obama was, though that's not saying much.  Ryan held his own and didn't make any grave errors.

The talking heads at ABC thought it was a great debate.  Actually, I thought it was one of the worst debates I've seen in recent history.  I thought Biden came off as a belligerent ass. His smirks were obnoxious, and by the middle of the debate I could barely follow what was being said because he kept interrupting every time Ryan opened his mouth.  I'm surprised Ryan didn't show more exasperation - don't know if that's just his personality or inexperience.  He certainly was the more dignified and professional participant.  Unfortunately, I'm not sure being dignified and professional did him any favors since sometimes being the loudest is the best way to win these kinds of things.  The moderator asked a lot of great questions, but the answers were just a mess and I don't really feel like I learned very much.  I also felt the sudden jump to abortion was unnecessary and jarring; obviously I'm not a fan of Ryan's answer.  At least toward the end I could follow what was being said, though I thought Biden gave a better closing statement (Ryan's felt very scripted to me).

I'm also not a fan of the "sit down" posture.  I think it's awkwardly intimate and encourages interrupting because it's frames as more of a conversation.

I've never much cared for VP debates, and I cared for this one less than usual.  In the end it will probably stop (or at least) the bleeding for the dems after the debacle of the first pres debate, at least over the next few days.  In that sense it was probably a minor strategic victory for the dems even if it was a tactical tie.   Long term though it probably won't mean much, especially with the next pres debate being so soon (less than a week).   Tuesday's results will probably have a much greater impact on the election.


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gnomes2169
gnomes2169


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posted October 12, 2012 07:10 AM

We need a hedgehog in the White House damn it. Just a nice little humor break before the storm of everything serious...
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blizzardboy
blizzardboy


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posted October 12, 2012 07:11 AM
Edited by blizzardboy at 08:03, 12 Oct 2012.

Polls are showing a slight victory for Ryan. I'm pleasantly surprised by that. I thought Biden was unexpectedly powerful in the debate, but I guess a lot of people might have shared your reaction of his interruptions and laughter being annoying.
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Corribus
Corribus

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The Abyss Staring Back at You
posted October 12, 2012 05:58 PM
Edited by Corribus at 17:59, 12 Oct 2012.

Having thought about it some more, I suppose it may be possible that Biden's constant interrupting and other rather boorish behavior may have been a deliberate ploy to goad an inexperienced Ryan into getting off message or making some other mistake (speaking off the cuff, saying something he'd later regret, or just losing his temper).  There was one point where during one of the exchanges Ryan mentioned something about President Kennedy, and Biden leapt on it as though he were waiting for it. (Of course, this is a reference to the famous 1988 debate between Quayle and Bennsten [see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senator,_you're_no_Jack_Kennedy]).  I thought to myself: you sneaky devil, you!  Ryan wisely and quickly changed direction.

If this is true, I'm rather impressed that Ryan for the most part managed to avoid the provocation.

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blizzardboy
blizzardboy


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posted October 13, 2012 12:07 AM
Edited by blizzardboy at 00:15, 13 Oct 2012.

The annoying part of the debate is when you get in situations (like the VP debate several times) where they run off numerical values and the other guy says, "No, he's wrong", because then you have to care enough to look up the commentaries afterward to see what the hell is really going on.

I thought Biden's "I eat pieces of **** like this for breakfast" attitude during the debate sent a powerful message of superiority and confidence, but I'm admittedly biased toward Biden's personality. It could just have easily pissed most people off. The turn order felt a little bit like an advantage to Biden also because I think there were several occasions where Biden got to rebuttal directly to Ryan's comments, but Ryan didn't seem to have the opportunity to do likewise because by then the moderator sent the discussion in another direction. Still, although the Democrat was the more aggressive one in this debate, Ryan apparently didn't come off as limp-willed like Obama did. He was simply more discrete while driving his points. He was the beta male in a good sort of way
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