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Zenofex
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posted November 16, 2014 09:36 AM |
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@artu, thinking small certainly does contribute to the position of a small nation as such but that's not where the story ends. The geographical position is also crucial, especially if it is on the way of something globally important. Japan, like Britain, is an island country, taking advantage of all the strategical benefits of a relative isolation from the mainland (the great historical cataclysms always happen on the mainland), including the mindset of the people (relative isolation breeds a feeling of uniqueness). That is not supposed to underestimate their achievements but I wouldn't expect the same short-term results if I had to take exactly the same Japanese which you had at the end of WW2 and place them Iraq. Even less so if they had to live nearby some of the history's highways for centuries. In the end of the day, the more interested other powers are in something which you have or for which you are an obstacle, the less likely it is for them to leave you build/re-build in peace. That also applies to internal politics - some corrupt strongman could easily be a pawn of an external power, as could be a "democratically elected" government.
@markkur, the "Crusade" argument exists only on the Muslim side of the conflict, pretty much because they make an analogy with the Medieval invasions of the westerners under the excuse of righteous religious aims (now the excuse is "democracy" and "human rights", essentially the same thing), and not so much because they see the "infidels" waging a holy war against Islam. As the time passes, the propaganda of radical Islamist movements may actually convince a large number of people that this is indeed a holy war against the Muslims but that will be only a repercussion.
From western perspective, foreign policy doesn't particularly care about morality outside of the propaganda department, i.e. it's nothing more than a tool to achieve the real goals. You can trace this attitude back to the Romans (the Punic Wars for example), even the Greeks/Macedonians (Greek-Persian wars, Alexander's righteous conquest of the Persian Empire, etc.) but it crystallized in its current form around the time of Richelieu. In XX and XXI century we still have the same core idea that the interests of the state are supreme and everything with lower importance can and should be used to achieve them. The US follows this concept wholeheartedly ever since it abandoned completely its self-imposed international isolation following the collapse of the European empires (World War I) so you can safely bet all your money that no major foreign intervention of the US has ever had truly moral roots, religious or whatever. If you want, think of this as an "imperial disease" caught from old Europe.
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artu
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posted November 16, 2014 09:53 AM |
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That blade cuts both ways. Being isolated means you are also isolated from resources and trade routes. Yes, these are magnets of trouble in a way, but if you can handle it, they are actually a good thing, that's the only reason why rich Arabs (Saudis for instance, who paint their cars with gold dust) who are not in conflict with major Western powers are rich in the first place. Yet, it's still not reflected as progress of society, at least significantly.
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Salamandre
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posted November 17, 2014 03:00 PM |
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Zenofex
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posted August 04, 2015 09:18 AM |
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The situation in the Middle East is becoming more and more ****ed by the day. First, end of last month Turkey agreed to allow access to the Incirlik air base which it was fairly reluctant to open before, allegedly allowing the US to bomb ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Shortly after that Turkey started bombing... the Kurds.
Reminder 1 - the Kurds are fighting ISIS.
The US came with a statement that it "supports Turkey against all terrorist organizations" or something of that sort, meaning pretty much official approval for further bombings on Kurdish positions. The price for Incirlik is now fairly clear. Yesterday an announcement came that the US might bomb Assad in Syria "defensively" to help the "moderate opposition" (there's a paid article in Wall Street Journal for whoever needs another source).
Reminder 2 - Assad is also fighting ISIS.
Comments, anyone?
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artu
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My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted August 04, 2015 11:08 AM |
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Edited by artu at 11:21, 04 Aug 2015.
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Erdogan wanted to change the constitution and bring a system without a prime minister where his presidency would mean absolute power. For that, his party (AKP) should have got a very significant majority but for the first time people said no to the conservatives, in the election, AKP was still the first party but it couldn't even get enough votes to start a government on its own. That was mostly because of the Kurdish party (HDP) who went into the election with the motto "Erdogan, we will not let you become the president." They overcame the 10 percent threshold, if you are below that, you don't get any representatives.They hit 13 % (a very significant rise in their votes) by using the reaction to Erdogan's power craze, they put about 80 representatives in the parliament. They also said no to all coalition offers from AKP as they promised. Right now, there is no new government in Turkey, there are negotiations for a coalition between other parties and there's a chance to have a re-election in October.
Some say the attacks are AKP's provocation, forcing Kurds to go back to guerilla war so that people who gave the reactionary votes will change their mind in the second election. Some say the real goal of Kurds had always been independency and now that ISIS started attacking directly to Turkey, they are using the situation to their advantage. The speculations and the conspiracy theories never end here, but one thing is for sure, the southern-eastern region has never been this hot since the 1990's. Every day or two, there is some news of a shoot out, some outpost busted, cops and soldiers are constantly assassinated. This wont go away easy.
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OhforfSake
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Initiate
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posted August 04, 2015 11:25 AM |
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There are also less sanctions towards Iran, hopefully this is a step towards a more peaceful world.
But regarding Turkey, I'm not afraid ISIS is a threat to Turkey, but I'm confused they can attack Turkey's territory again and again without Turkey sending forces back. It makes it look like Turkey can't guarantee the safety of its citizens in the south, which is in my opinion a major issue.
Have a state of emergency been declared in the region under threat? Because as I see it, these looks more like acts of war than singular terrorist attacks.
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artu
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posted August 04, 2015 11:49 AM |
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An official state of emergency hasn't been declared yet, no.
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blizzardboy
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posted August 05, 2015 04:42 AM |
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State of emergency. Oh pweeease. IS is just one chain of a long line of people wanting to pummel the Kurds. The southeastern Turkish border has been porous for a loooong time. Ankara seems to have adopted a policy of "we give up" towards it. That area is the Mississippi of Turkey. When southeastern Turkey, by some miracle, starts generating wealth, then the border will get tighter than a 12-year-old Asian child's evening playtime. Not before.
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blizzardboy
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posted November 18, 2015 07:34 AM |
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The inconvenient truth: There's no easy military answer to war on ISIS
The author lists some reasons for why there's not currently a presentable immediate solution to the ISIS problem. Didn't even realize when I bumped this thread, but one of the big points reiterates what I said in the above post back in August: southern Turkish border is far too porous.
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Zenofex
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posted November 18, 2015 08:28 AM |
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Tha author completely omits Europe as a critical side of the problem and that flaws the entire analysis, which has some good points in it (but also too many politically correct ones). If (or maybe even when) the refugee crisis in Europe reaches a boiling point the entire planning in the Middle East goes to hell. Russia will try to take advantage of this by exploiting the many holes in the EU internal stability to improve its position in Ukraine and oust as many pro-US and pro-NATO politicians from the EU scene as possible, eventually aiming at restoring its pre-Ukraine standing in Europe and maybe even going beyond that. To European stability is essential to any sort of resolution, even temporary, to this crisis.
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markkur
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Once upon a time
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posted November 18, 2015 10:20 AM |
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I wonder how many folks might not realize that waay back when, when the Brits promised Israel a homeland, they made the very same promise at the same time to the Palestinians?
Correct me if I'm wrong (long outta touch)but there is still no formal Palestine...correct? This was and is viewed as injustice and that it was never important enough to create, (viola Israel in the 40s) it is interpreted as western favoritism. <imo> Until this mistake is finally and satisfactorily rectified, there will never be "a chance" for Peace.
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Elodin
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posted November 18, 2015 01:09 PM |
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Edited by Elodin at 13:15, 18 Nov 2015.
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The only nation ever known as Palestine is Israel. You could move all of the Jews out of the middle east and terror would not stop. The Islamic Supremeists demand the death of all non-Muslims.
Possessing 99 percent of all the Earth would not be enough for Islamic Supremists. They demand all of it.
Also..ISIS has a nation now. The Islamic State. It may not be a legitimate nation but it is a nation. As long as the world is only willing to fight Islamic Supremists symbolicly terror wins the day. The French and Russians having just been hit have struck the Islamic State more in the last two days than Obama had in the last two months. Obama is only willing to engage in a symbolic war. Until there are boots on the ground no one is serious about defeating Islamic Supremeism.
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Salamandre
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posted November 18, 2015 02:13 PM |
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I am surely not a muslim worshiper but what you say there is a lie, mostly peddled by jews, as excuse to their unacceptable politics and racist behavior. Giving that land to jews was a big mistake and I am afraid a world war is only starting, with one of the important triggers being Israel.
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artu
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My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted November 18, 2015 08:00 PM |
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Edited by artu at 20:46, 18 Nov 2015.
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Elodin said:
The only nation ever known as Palestine is Israel. You could move all of the Jews out of the middle east and terror would not stop. The Islamic Supremeists demand the death of all non-Muslims.
Possessing 99 percent of all the Earth would not be enough for Islamic Supremists. They demand all of it.
Also..ISIS has a nation now. The Islamic State. It may not be a legitimate nation but it is a nation. As long as the world is only willing to fight Islamic Supremists symbolicly terror wins the day. The French and Russians having just been hit have struck the Islamic State more in the last two days than Obama had in the last two months. Obama is only willing to engage in a symbolic war. Until there are boots on the ground no one is serious about defeating Islamic Supremeism.
It's true when the name Palestine was given to the land by the Romans during the 2nd Century, they had Jews in mind and Arabs started to call it that much much later. (Ironically, the Romans renamed the place Palestine, even renamed Jerusalem, Aelia, because they thought Jews were troublemakers and they sent them to exile all over their empire.) However, that's the ancient part of the story and in a 20th - 21st century context, Palestine obviously means absolutely something else. The word Palestinian doesn't etymologically represent a nation in a sense like French are people who lived in France and Indians are people who lived in India etc.(Funny etymological story there too, if we're talking about the Apache, if you know what I mean.) They are obviously Arabs, just like Iraqis, Syrians or people from Jordan are Arabs. But they had been living there for thousands of years and the place is really their homeland, as much as Texas is your homeland although your ancestors from centuries ago lived in Europe. (Which isn't even the case when it comes to the Arabs, btw, they were there just as long as the Jews, they never left or migrated.)
The Palestine issue and the ISIS issue are different things, Hamas is not ISIS and when it comes to ISIS, maybe, we should put the article Galaad linked, here also. It fits this thread better anyway. Keep in mind, these are not lame ass conspiracy theories, it's investigative journalism at its best, based on evidence and documents with proper sources. As long as the region keeps on existing as what I described as the chessboard of global politics, radical groups will be financed and nurtured.
Galaad said:
Article from March recently bumped, another interesting read.
Islamic State is the cancer of modern capitalism, by Nafeez Ahmed.
You keep bringing up the same black and white argument, no matter how much information is presented to you. The world is not a Hollywood movie, it doesn't consist of pure evil willing to dominate it with their sinister laughter on the background and the good guys in their shining armors who'll save it.
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markkur
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Once upon a time
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posted November 19, 2015 11:29 AM |
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Elodin said:
...You could move all of the Jews out of the middle east and terror would not stop. The Islamic Supremeists demand the death of all non-Muslims.
I didn't say it would but the thing is Terrorism needs "support". And since the moderates see and live this almost 80 year-old injustice they will not check the extremists in any way. For there to be "progress" towards M.E. peace 3 things MUST happen; 1. The Arabs need their own state to finally fulfill the old promise (so that is finally removed from the table)and 2. After that; the Moderates or good folks that live in the region must see the new enemy are those amongst them peddling a death-wish. 3. And there HAS to be a stable environment for this change to happen.
Elodin, not every Arab wants to be a bomb.
The English civil-war is a good historical case to compare. While the state of war existed, no matter how many folks wanted to stay away from the killing and the violence they were forced to choose sides, there was no middle-ground. However, unlike today, the English were left to their own ends, there was no UN/West/World to intervene etc. If nothing is done now other that air-strikes, then IS will eventually own the M.E.
Israel needs to fight for these folks too as much as they strive for their own security or one day they may truly face only one other nation in the revised map of the nations in the Middle-East...only 2. Israel and not-Israel. The region is NOT there yet or we would not see refugees, they would willing participants.
Colonial Britain made arrogant (they were not God nor Gods) and foolish decisions in the M.E. (they NEEDED to exit) Look at what they did in India; told how many millions? "they had to move and live somewhere else". (they NEEDED to exit)
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Galaad
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Li mort as morz, li vif as vis
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posted November 19, 2015 01:53 PM |
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antipaladin
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posted November 19, 2015 07:33 PM |
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Elodin
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posted November 20, 2015 12:29 AM |
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Salamandre said:
I am surely not a muslim worshiper but what you say there is a lie, mostly peddled by jews, as excuse to their unacceptable politics and racist behavior. Giving that land to jews was a big mistake and I am afraid a world war is only starting, with one of the important triggers being Israel.
I've certainly not lied. I've certainly not seen racist behavior from the Jews. I do know the ones falsely called Palestinians teach in their school "How to stab a Jew."
I would say World War III has already started. Radical Islam vs the world. Unfortunately the world for the most part is not fighting back
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fred79
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posted November 20, 2015 01:26 AM |
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lol, ww3? i don't think you understand the scale of such a war, elodin. ww3 would wipe some nations off the map, if not a cluster of them, and leave the rest inable to survive due to radiation and loss of food and drinkable water. these muslim extremists are only killing a handful of people, by comparison. and they AREN'T leaving radiation in their wake.
when the numbers go into the millions in a relatively short period of time, then you can call it ww3.
and you're forgetting something; which is pretty important. most muslims don't side with these extremists. they would be on the rest of the world's side.
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Salamandre
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posted November 20, 2015 08:30 AM |
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The military ratio now is too clearly towards one side only, to have a ww pattern similar to 1st and 2nd. The 3rd ww will be/is different, with entire nations being wiped or at least seriously hurt in their inner identity by enormous migratory fluxes, is already happening and is only the start.
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