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Heroes Community > Heroes 7 - Falcon's Last Flight > Thread: Heroes 7 Mage Guild spell distribution: the numbers
Thread: Heroes 7 Mage Guild spell distribution: the numbers
Maurice
Maurice

Hero of Order
Part of the furniture
posted October 09, 2015 02:37 PM bonus applied by Elvin on 18 Oct 2015.
Edited by Maurice at 17:49, 09 Oct 2015.

Heroes 7 Mage Guild spell distribution: the numbers

One thing I have been wondering about is how the chances are between the various factions to get specific spells within their Mage Guilds. As such, I've gone over some numbers and compiled it into one easy to read table. I assume that every spell has equal odds to appear within the Mage Guild, outside the mandatory Faction and Preferred Magic Schools and the forbidden Magic Spell School. The table below details the chances for any given spell to appear in the Mage Guild at its corresponding Tier, keeping the restrictions in mind.

The game will first consider the spells from the Faction School (if present) and the Preferred School, of which there are 2 each at each of the first 3 Tiers. The game will always try to place at least one spell from either School into the Mage Guild. As such, the spells in each subset have a 50% to be picked for those specific slots in the Mage Guild. For Tier 4, only 1 such spell exists for the Faction School and Preferred School, but since there's only 1 slot available, each of those has only 50% chance to appear. These values are given in the Faction and Prefered columns of each Tier.

Once it has handled the Faction Schools and Preferred Schools, it will randomly pick spells from the remaining pool of spells for that Tier to fill out the empty spell slots. The value in the "Other" column represents the chance for each of those spells to be picked.


* = without the Arcane Library built
** = with the Arcane Library built

UPDATE: I see that I missed the Adventure Map spells from Tier 1. The total number of spells at Tier 1 changes accordingly, which also means that the percentages change there. I will update the image when I can. Due to this, the odds of the first Preferred and Faction School Spells changes to 33% instead of 50%, whereas the chance for "Other" Spells changes to 18% for Haven, Necropolis and Dungeon, 20% for Academy without the Arcane Library, 30% for Academy with the Arcane Library and to 15% for Sylvan and Stronghold.

The Arcane Library adds 2 spell slots at Tier 1 and Tier 2 as well as 1 spell slot at Tier 3 and Tier 4.

Note that Fire and Water aren't present as a Faction School. Obvious candidates are Inferno and Sanctuary, respectively.

Keep in mind that whenever a spell is selected as Preferred or Faction spell, the other one in the same Tier (for Tier 1, 2 and 3) still has a chance to appear as well, albeit with lower chance.

As an example, let's consider Havens' Mage Guild, Tier 2. The player in question has selected Fire Magic as his Preferred School, where Light was already the Faction School. For spells of those two Schools, we have the following set:
- Inner Fire & Fire Wall (Fire)
- Celestial Armor & Cleansing Light (Light)
The game will pick one Fire spell from these, due to it being the Preferred School, so either of the two Fire spells has 50% chance to appear initially. The same counts for Light.

Once those two spells are chosen, 2 spell slots remain at Tier 2, for the following set of spells:
- The Fire spell that wasn't chosen from the above set;
- The Light spell that wasn't chosen from the above set;
- Frost Bolt & Ice Strike (Water)
- Gust of Wind & Lightning Bolt (Air)
- Teleport & Dispel Magic (Prime)
- Entangle & Poison Spray (Earth)
That's 10 spells, for only 2 slots, so each spell has a chance of 2/10th to appear, or better said, 20%. Similar considerations apply to all other Tiers.

What is interesting to note here is that there are only three factions with a forbidden school. Because the spells of the forbidden school don't appear in the Mage Guild, those factions actually have a higher chance for any other spell to appear within the Mage Guild. When it boils down to Magic Schools on Heroes, this puts Sylvan and Stronghold at a slight disadvantage, since their spell pool at Tier 1, 2 and 3 is a bit more diffuse than that of Haven, Dungeon and Necropolis. The only limitations that exist currently are the Light or Dark schools; every faction has access to all of the other spells up to and including Tier 3. Due to the low number of Tier 4 spells, the odds of getting anything there outside the Preferred and Faction Schools is zero, except for Academy with the Arcane Library.

Academy is in a bit of an oddball park, anyway. Since they lack a Faction School, the chance for any spell outside the Preferred School is slightly higher, a chance which increases with higher Tiers. As such, Academy has a slightly higher chance to get both spells of the Preferred School over any of the other factions. The odds on that increase considerably with the construction of the Arcane Library. Furthermore, Academy is the only one who are guaranteed to get the Tier 4 spell of their Preferred School, whereas that is only 50% for all other factions (although I have a feeling that the odds aren't exactly 50% ... Haven seems to get the Tier 4 Light Magic spell Resurrection quite often over the Tier 4 of the Preferred school). The trade-off, however, is that the other Tier 4 spell can be of any of the other six Magic Schools.

I wonder if it would actually be better if Academy would be allowed to select two Schools of Preference, instead of one School of Preference and one Faction School. It would give Academy a slight bit more focus towards two specific Schools instead of one.

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Stevie
Stevie


Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
posted October 09, 2015 03:37 PM

Interesting observations. I myself am a bit surprised that there's no restricted school for Sylvan and Stronghold. It seems that restrictions are only in regards to Light and Dark, which makes this look more like an ideological / spiritual conflict than an elemental one. The high number of schools is indeed an issue when it comes to spell distribution in the magic guild and acquisition based on magic schools, and I find the idea of specialization to be crucial here. Is it sufficient though? I'm not so sure about that.
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Guide to a Great Heroes Game
The Young Traveler

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natalka
natalka


Supreme Hero
Bad-mannered
posted October 09, 2015 04:28 PM

can you elaborate on the percentages? For me chance for preferred/faction spell is always 100 % or is this for the rest of the spells(3 spells in tier1 , 2spells in tier 2 etc)

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Maurice
Maurice

Hero of Order
Part of the furniture
posted October 09, 2015 05:13 PM
Edited by Maurice at 17:47, 09 Oct 2015.

natalka said:
can you elaborate on the percentages? For me chance for preferred/faction spell is always 100 % or is this for the rest of the spells(3 spells in tier1 , 2spells in tier 2 etc)


I am looking at each of the possible spells individually. For a Preferred School and Faction School at Tiers 1, 2 and 3, there are always two possible spells. The game will randomly select one of those for that Tier. As such, each of the Spells within the limitation of the Faction and Preferred School has a 50% chance to appear in the Mage Guild (as first selection). The remaining slots are randomly chosen over all remaining spells for that Tier, which includes the spell from the Preferred or Faction Schools that weren't picked by the game in the initial step.

I'll elaborate the OP a bit more to clarify this, as I realise I didn't really go into that.

Edit: Done, along with an example.

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PandaTar
PandaTar


Responsible
Legendary Hero
Celestial Heavens Mascot
posted October 09, 2015 05:50 PM

And I demand QP for Maurice because potato!
____________
"Okay. Look. We both said a lot of things that you're going to regret. But I think we can put our differences behind us. For science. You monster."
GlaDOS – Portal 2

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odium
odium


Known Hero
posted October 09, 2015 09:33 PM
Edited by odium at 21:45, 09 Oct 2015.

Maurice said:

I am looking at each of the possible spells individually. For a Preferred School and Faction School at Tiers 1, 2 and 3, there are always two possible spells. The game will randomly select one of those for that Tier. As such, each of the Spells within the limitation of the Faction and Preferred School has a 50% chance to appear in the Mage Guild (as first selection). The remaining slots are randomly chosen over all remaining spells for that Tier, which includes the spell from the Preferred or Faction Schools that weren't picked by the game in the initial step.

I'll elaborate the OP a bit more to clarify this, as I realise I didn't really go into that.

Edit: Done, along with an example.


Hi Maurice,

There is a small correction that you need to do for the chance that a preferred/faction spell appears in your guild. Such a spell has 2 chances to appear:

1. If it gets selected as the preferred/faction spell of that tier (that is your 0.5 chance)
2. It gets a second chance to be selected among the "general" places of the respective tier: this equates to an additional chance for that spell.

Therefore the overall probability for a proffered/faction spell to appear is the sum of event 1 + event 2. Taking your example as a Tier 2 light spell for a Haven hero, it has the following overall chance: 1/2 + (1-1/2)*[2/(4x2+1+1)]=1/2 + 1/10=0.6

Then there is also the issue of Tier 1 spells that are 3 per magic school and not only 2.

Overall, I've tried to correct your values and got to the following numbers (didn't double check so look for typos).



Edit: If you ask me, it doesn't look too good of a system, but this has been already debated for some time now...

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Maurice
Maurice

Hero of Order
Part of the furniture
posted October 10, 2015 01:30 AM

odium said:
There is a small correction that you need to do for the chance that a preferred/faction spell appears in your guild. Such a spell has 2 chances to appear:

1. If it gets selected as the preferred/faction spell of that tier (that is your 0.5 chance)
2. It gets a second chance to be selected among the "general" places of the respective tier: this equates to an additional chance for that spell.


I've thought about this, but I don't think it really matters. For a spell from the Preferred or Faction School to fall through to the "Other" category, it already has to have failed at getting selected as primary for the respective slot. Regardless of which of the two spells gets picked, that one had a 50% chance (33% at Tier 1), so the other one just follows the selection chance of the remaining pool.

Essentially what your proposition does is to try and establish the chance that both spells appear (or all three, at Tier 1). Hmm, maybe a number to consider, but it would be in addition to the numbers I presented above.

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Ravel
Ravel


Hired Hero
posted October 10, 2015 03:10 AM

Thanks for the table, definitely interesting.

Personally, as a heroes 3 guy.., I feel like there weren't enough spells, so one of the first things I felt like modding was to add additional spells.  However, this would obviously just exacerbate the problem of not getting the spell you wanted.

Perhaps if there were some way to upgrade each level of the mage's guild to give an additional spell of that level from either of the guild's specializations?

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odium
odium


Known Hero
posted October 10, 2015 02:25 PM
Edited by odium at 14:36, 10 Oct 2015.

No Maurice, it's the chance for A spell in the preferred/faction group to appear in your mage guild at that level. For example if you want to build a second level mage guild and you are interested to know what is the probability of say, Celestial Armor, to appear. For a Haven hero the chance of getting that spell is 60%, not 50%. As I said before, its probability to appear is the sum of 2 events:

- it gets picked as the faction spell
- it doesn't get picked as the faction spell but it gets picked in one of the general/random spell slots

edit: the above(0.6) is not the same as the chance of both spells to appear in your guild which, in the example of the level 2 light school of Haven faction, is 2/(4X2+1+1)=0.2




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Maurice
Maurice

Hero of Order
Part of the furniture
posted October 10, 2015 03:04 PM
Edited by Maurice at 12:51, 20 Oct 2015.

odium said:
No Maurice, it's the chance for A spell in the preferred/faction group to appear in your mage guild at that level.


Point conceded, I had not thought about it in that way. I'll see when I can update the OP to better reflect this.

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