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Heroes Community > Other Side of the Monitor > Thread: Turkey, a new coup?
Thread: Turkey, a new coup? This thread is 5 pages long: 1 2 3 4 5 · «PREV / NEXT»
artu
artu


Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
posted July 16, 2016 07:32 PM

kipshasz said:
Awww.... The New "Ottoman Sultan" can't handle his own army? I hope his head will be presented to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. But You can bet that Lithuanian mainstream media will blame this coup on Russia, pinning it as vengeance over that shot down jet fighter.

Actually, the tension between Russia and Turkey is mostly over since last month. Erdogan wrote a letter to Putin, Putin removed the ban preventing Russian tourists to visit Turkey and the trade deals are back on.
Zenofex said:
The coup seems to have been very poorly organized... one might say even staged.

Rather than staged, it was a desperate attempt by a certain sect in the military which didn't have the support of the core. Back in 2002, when AKP won the elections, they were hand in hand with the Gulen movement.. Both were Islamists and both saw the Kemalist bureaucrats/military as the common enemy. So, AKP happily let Gulenists take over the police force and infiltrate into the judicial system. Gulenists brought on investigation after investigation, convicting almost half the high-ranking officials in the military of -oh, the irony- attempted coups or corruption charges, usually based on fabricated evidence. (Nobody suspected the evidence much back in those days, because the military was indeed anti-AKP and had a long history of real coups.) But in 2013, like all Islamists do since the time of the four caliphs of which three are assassinated, in the end, they couldn't share the power and turned on each other. The Gulen movement started to leak secretly recorded tapes of AKP politicians, which presented bribery, corruption, and other sort of scandalous material. Yet, AKP still won the elections that year despite everything that surfaced and in return, started a man-hunt, removing and arresting anybody in the police force or judicial system that was linked to Gulen. Erdogan started to accuse any political opposition or journalism of working for the Gulen movement which he now called "the parallel state." It is known that a similar house-cleaning was just about to take place in the military and the Gulenist officers were going to be discharged. So, this was their last resort. Hoping the Kemalist core of the military would back them against Erdogan once they start the coup, they went ahead. But of course, the Kemalist officers hate the Gulen movement even more than they hate AKP, since it was Gulen's people who convicted them back in the 2000's. Also, this is not 1980 anymore, there are hundreds of TV stations, the internet, cell phones... So, they couldn't prevent communication and Erdogan's "call of duty" to his conservative Muslims, and once they got that call, they flooded the streets with "Allah-u Akbar" jumping on tanks, blocking the roads etc.

Overall, AKP first snowed the state bureaucracy up by filling it with Gulenists and when they turned on each other, what was completely lost in chaos and greed was the establishment and reputation of this state. This failed attempt will only strengthen Erdogan's hand and I'm afraid "his Islamist crowds" will be much more aggressive from now on.  
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fred79
fred79


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posted July 16, 2016 07:39 PM

if what you say is accurate, then i now understand exactly why and how those people were killed in the streets in the video. snowing retards.

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Ebonheart
Ebonheart


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Rush the rush
posted July 16, 2016 07:50 PM
Edited by Ebonheart at 19:53, 16 Jul 2016.

Why can't politicians and the military solve this like civilized men with a brawl in the parliament?
That way no civilians will get harmed (unless they seek out the action ofc).

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artu
artu


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My BS sensor is tingling again
posted July 16, 2016 07:51 PM
Edited by artu at 19:51, 16 Jul 2016.

@Fred

Yep, reading the above, maybe you now understand better why I don't see "Clinton using her private e-mail" as a complete disaster.
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Neraus
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posted July 16, 2016 08:21 PM

I'm sad to read that artu.

I fear the same, as it seems that the "loyalist" crowds are absolutely brutal, and I don't want to see another official Islamic state in the Middle east, especially one so close to our borders.

A "Mamma li Turchi!" is in order.
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artu
artu


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My BS sensor is tingling again
posted July 16, 2016 08:35 PM

Well, they'll never declare Sharia Law, take this summary from WikiTravel, I consider it pretty fair:

While it may sound like a tourism brochure cliché, Turkey really is a curious mix of the west and the east —you may swear you were in a Balkan country or in Greece when in northwestern and western parts of the country (except that Byzantine-influenced churches are substituted with Byzantine-influenced mosques), which are indeed partly inhabited by people from Balkan countries, who immigrated during the turmoil before, during, and after WWI, while southeastern reaches of the country exhibit little if any cultural differences from Turkey's southern and eastern neighbors. Influences from the Caucasus add to the mix in the northeast part of the country. It can be simply put that Turkey is the most oriental of western nations, or, depending on the point of view, the most occidental of eastern nations.

Perhaps one thing common to all of the country is Islam, the faith of the bulk of the population. However, interpretation of it varies vastly across the country: many people in northwestern and western coasts are fairly liberal about the religion (being nominal Muslims sometimes to the point of being irreligious), while folk of the central steppes are far more conservative (don't expect to find a Saudi Arabia or an Afghanistan even there, though). The rest of the country falls somewhere in between, with the coastal regions being relatively liberal while inland regions are relatively conservative as a general rule.


Now, what's happening is, the conservatives are becoming the mainstream norm, more and more. They control education, they own most of the media, they are the state and they are nepotists at an extremely ideological level. I'm not afraid that we will turn into Saudi Arabia but not turning into it, really doesn't cut it for me. We used to be a country of Mediterranean/Middle-eastern culture, it was a mix. And now the Mediterranean elements are constantly under pressure, pessimistic and everybody is polarized every single minute of the day.    
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fred79
fred79


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posted July 16, 2016 08:47 PM

artu said:
@Fred

Yep, reading the above, maybe you now understand better why I don't see "Clinton using her private e-mail" as a complete disaster.


i don't, either. the disaster i see, is in every politician, and every voter. it's all beyond fixing. the best any of us can hope for is a complete overhaul, and even then, you can never eliminate the greed.

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Kayna
Kayna


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posted July 17, 2016 05:08 AM

News now say Erdogan is cleaning his government body. Thousands of judges arrested, thousands of soldiers as well, he's trying to bring back the death penalty too... He will be stronger than ever.

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Corribus
Corribus

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posted July 17, 2016 07:11 AM

Artu, from your perspective how do you feel these recent events impact potential Turkish accession to the EU?
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Blizzardboy
Blizzardboy


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posted July 17, 2016 07:16 AM
Edited by Blizzardboy at 07:31, 17 Jul 2016.

artu said:
Well, they'll never declare Sharia Law, take this summary from WikiTravel, I consider it pretty fair:

While it may sound like a tourism brochure cliché, Turkey really is a curious mix of the west and the east —you may swear you were in a Balkan country or in Greece when in northwestern and western parts of the country (except that Byzantine-influenced churches are substituted with Byzantine-influenced mosques), which are indeed partly inhabited by people from Balkan countries, who immigrated during the turmoil before, during, and after WWI, while southeastern reaches of the country exhibit little if any cultural differences from Turkey's southern and eastern neighbors. Influences from the Caucasus add to the mix in the northeast part of the country. It can be simply put that Turkey is the most oriental of western nations, or, depending on the point of view, the most occidental of eastern nations.

Perhaps one thing common to all of the country is Islam, the faith of the bulk of the population. However, interpretation of it varies vastly across the country: many people in northwestern and western coasts are fairly liberal about the religion (being nominal Muslims sometimes to the point of being irreligious), while folk of the central steppes are far more conservative (don't expect to find a Saudi Arabia or an Afghanistan even there, though). The rest of the country falls somewhere in between, with the coastal regions being relatively liberal while inland regions are relatively conservative as a general rule.


Now, what's happening is, the conservatives are becoming the mainstream norm, more and more. They control education, they own most of the media, they are the state and they are nepotists at an extremely ideological level. I'm not afraid that we will turn into Saudi Arabia but not turning into it, really doesn't cut it for me. We used to be a country of Mediterranean/Middle-eastern culture, it was a mix. And now the Mediterranean elements are constantly under pressure, pessimistic and everybody is polarized every single minute of the day.    


I'm assuming central Turkey has a robust birthrate and the western coast does not, and central Turkey is partially moving into the cities. Turkey won't turn into Saudi Arabia because it's not a monarchy , and radically so, but I don't think becoming more like your southern neighbors is out of the question.

There could be a counter-assimilation where the conservative youth become more Mediterranean, but you need economic appeal for that to be effective. If the big city isn't so shiny, its cultural & ideological appeal goes away with it.
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Zenofex
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posted July 17, 2016 07:46 AM

Quote:
Rather than staged, it was a desperate attempt by a certain sect in the military which didn't have the support of the core.
Could be but staged doesn't necessarily mean directly organized. Erdogan may have been aware of the coup plans and allowed them to commence so he can crush the attempt easily and use it as an excuse for mass persecutions. I hear that judges and journalists are being fired en masse so the purge expectedly stretches far beyond the military.
Quote:
Artu, from your perspective how do you feel these recent events impact potential Turkish accession to the EU?
Let me answer that before artu, from the EU side of the things. Turkey had slightly better chances than Russia to join the EU before the coup. Now it's on a par with North Korea. Many EU countries would veto such an accession even if others like the increasingly discredited Germany advocate it. Not that Turkey really wants to join, that's more of a diplomatic tool than a real objective.

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artu
artu


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My BS sensor is tingling again
posted July 17, 2016 01:48 PM
Edited by artu at 13:55, 17 Jul 2016.

Corribus said:
Artu, from your perspective how do you feel these recent events impact potential Turkish accession to the EU?

Well, even back in the 1990's, EU membership wasn't something just over the horizon, it was a real long-term goal though. Today, even without the coup, nobody on both sides are exactly very motivated to make it happen. As Erdogan gets more authoritarian, he gets more "persona non grata" reaction from Europe and his usual reply is to accuse them of hypocrisy and double standards. (Which is sometimes not necessarily complete BS.) Erdogan isn't going anywhere soon and it's very easy to see that EU membership is the least of his concerns.  

From a sociological perspective, until the mid 2000's, majority of the people here really wanted to join and most of the European population wouldn't be as reactionary as they would be today either, since the fatigue from Muslim immigration was nowhere near this level. But now, our population is more like "they bring on obstacle after obstacle, screw this, we don't need this, do they want us to beg, huh!" Most Turks didn't realize what it meant to actually join in the beginning, they had visa-free travel on their mind but as the candidacy became more concrete and regulations of all sorts started to stack, they began to perceive the process as throwing monkey wrenches in the cogs. The Europeans on the other hand, are really fed up with hardcore Muslims flooding in and not moving a finger to assimilate or at least adjust. When it comes to Turkey of today, half the people who would directly move in, in case of a membership, would have been running away in search of a less Islamic atmosphere though. And we are a very big economy, so in such a scenario, we would also be taking a lot of immigrants especially from Eastern Europe.


I still think, in the long-term (like 2040's, 2050's), Turkey has the social potential to be a member. Masses change behavior quite fast with a feasible political direction and the religiosity or the cultural heritage of the people here is mostly not identical to their Arabic neighbors. So, when political Islam can be rivaled with better alternatives, that wont be much of a problem. But it's really hard to apply some of the reforms that needs to be applied when you have a hornet's nest of constant war in the southern borders and a Kurdish independence movement. (Some liberals, although they don't mention it out very loudly, hope that the Kurds do get separated and then we join without "the southern baggage." But of course, mainstream state politics would consider a suggestion of such separation, treason.) Besides, in what shape will EU be in the 2040's is also unknown.

Zenofex said:
Quote:
Rather than staged, it was a desperate attempt by a certain sect in the military which didn't have the support of the core.
Could be but staged doesn't necessarily mean directly organized. Erdogan may have been aware of the coup plans and allowed them to commence so he can crush the attempt easily and use it as an excuse for mass persecutions. I hear that judges and journalists are being fired en masse so the purge expectedly stretches far beyond the military.

Well, he really doesn't need a coup attempt for such a purge, it's already in action as I said. Erdogan is in full control now, the opposition parties are a mess, they can't produce alternatives and they are no threat to him. The media and the judicial system aren't in rebellion mode either. A coup, even as an attempt, will only have bad effect on economy and his international gravitas. So, such a conspiracy is not worth the trouble from his perspective.  
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Zenofex
Zenofex


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posted July 17, 2016 04:45 PM

I'm not saying that the whole thing is orchestrated, however there's a chance - not really negligible either - that it is. Internally Erdogan might be able to all sort of house-cleaning but he's not getting any more popular internationally with that. Not with the governments mind you, all the powerful Western states have proven time and time again that they don't mind dictatorships as long as they are "friendly" - but with the people who elect the said governments. Erdogan nearly isolated himself from all major powers at one point and obviously somebody smart advised him that playing a tough guy against everyone isn't going to end well so he employs more tact now, including (or rather not excluding) theatros.

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Blizzardboy
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posted July 17, 2016 07:16 PM

As soon as I saw the headline that 6000+ arrests have taken place,  the first thing that popped in my head was "this coup attempt is the best news for Erdogan all year".
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Kayna
Kayna


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posted July 21, 2016 03:25 AM

I know Alex Jones is a bozo, but listen to this.



This coup d'etat did not manage to get any high ranking official. Suspicious they say. Could be an excuse to reinforce his rule. Thoughts?

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artu
artu


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My BS sensor is tingling again
posted July 21, 2016 03:36 AM

It's very very unlikely that the coup itself was fake considering all the details but Erdogan does and will use this as an excuse to spread his authority.

In universities today, 1577 deans were asked to resign and they did. That's like all the friggin' deans in Turkey. Some will be reassigned, I guess. But knowing how AKP operates, I hardly think it's going to be decided based on their qualities.  
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markkur
markkur


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Once upon a time
posted July 21, 2016 03:05 PM

artu said:
It's very very unlikely that the coup itself was fake considering all the details but Erdogan does and will use this as an excuse to spread his authority.

In universities today, 1577 deans were asked to resign and they did. That's like all the friggin' deans in Turkey. Some will be reassigned, I guess. But knowing how AKP operates, I hardly think it's going to be decided based on their qualities.  


Question Artu,

Based on Ataturk and his original goal of what I remember as a secular Republican State, I've heard the Turkish Military has always supported that goal. Has that changed or do you see that changing now?
Anyway, I hope not and also hope you are forever safe in your own country.

Take care

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artu
artu


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My BS sensor is tingling again
posted July 21, 2016 03:21 PM
Edited by artu at 16:56, 21 Jul 2016.

Thank you Markkur.

The core of the military, (at least the old, high-ranking commanders who were raised and educated before the times of AKP) is relatively still Kemalist, they are not pro-coup anymore and that is, of course, a good thing. Although, I wouldn't define myself as a Kemalist, I fully support his vision of a Turkey that is integrated in the West, with secular, modern values. I think, in today's world, a functioning democracy is part of those values though and your society can't mature if every time they elect someone undesirable, soldiers come out of the bushes.

Anyway, the real threat of authoritarianism comes from Erdogan at the moment, not the military. I'm quite pessimistic about the next couple decades.
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Kayna
Kayna


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posted July 21, 2016 04:57 PM

Some say they didn't get to kill anyone important. Usually, a coup means getting the head of the most important person. Something I find curious is that many soldiers that participated in the coup were just following orders, they thought it was a military drill, and only realized it was something else when the people started walking on tanks.

Is that true? If so, what's the percentage of people that participated in the coup that knew what was going on versus those that thought it was just a drill?

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markkur
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Once upon a time
posted July 21, 2016 05:04 PM

artu said:
Anyway, the real threat of authoritarianism comes from Erdogan at the moment, not the military. I'm quite pessimistic about the next couple decades.


Well, I've heard that angle too and I can understand, that if true, it is not a comforting thought. Zeno might be right or not about the staged...but in the end, no matter what, I just don't trust anyone in power around the world anymore. How sad things are for most of us today. Sound and all-inclusive leadership, to me appears dead all over.

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