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Zsa
Famous Hero
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posted February 25, 2006 03:10 AM |
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Edited by Zsa on 25 Feb 2006
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Zsa's Quiz
The usual 5 questions you are used to. Have fun 
1.
2 3 4 6 5
2 5 3 6 4
2 5 3 6 5 4
Remember: Only the GOOD guys can get this 
2. "Lighning creates synergy
Between damage and energy
But no lightning can be achieved
Without the help of the mage guild"
What two things is this verse trying to tell us?
3. A war unicorn stack has "cast" blind 4 times in a row. What is the chance that the next attack will yield another blinded unit? (assume you have valid targets for blinding)
4. What's the probability that you will get 5 paralyzes out of 7 attacks from a scorpicore (assume each attack is done on a valid target).
5. This one is the hardest out of the bunch
"At the beggining of the battle you have one stack of greater basiliks (on snow, no speed artie or hero specialty), against 7 walking dead stacks. You have advanced leadership, no spellbook . edit: "You need 5 attacks to kill a stack", and your greater basilik stack won't die. "
What is the maximum probability of getting 6 pertrifies in 5 battle turns?
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LordZXZX
Famous Hero
Overfished
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posted February 25, 2006 03:54 AM |
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Oh no...! Maths questions. *Scratches head*
The only answer i can think of is for question 2, in where the air elemental dwelling which requires a mage guild.
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Nebuka
Promising
Supreme Hero
Save me Jebus!
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posted February 25, 2006 04:56 AM |
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A bit tired after following god damn awful Knicks in yet another loss...so will just answer one question.
Quote:
3. A war unicorn stack has "cast" blind 4 times in a row. What is the chance that the next attack will yield another blinded unit? (assume you have valid targets for blinding)
Again 20%. 
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Zsa
Famous Hero
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posted February 25, 2006 06:38 PM |
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Yep nebuka, just 20%. That's the gambler's illusion, that if you lose for a long period of time, your chances of winning increase. Good job.
For the first question there's no math involved whatsoever. LordZXZX, that's not a complete answer, you need to have two things.
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Gnoll_Mage
Responsible
Supreme Hero
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posted February 26, 2006 01:16 PM |
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Would 4 be
0.43008%
?
((7*6*5*4*3*2*1)/(2*1)(5*4*3*2*1) * (0.2)^5 * (0.8)^2)*100
Interestingly the chance of no paralyses over 7 attacks is about the same as the chance of paralysis in one attack.
All this is based on paralysis happening 20% of the time. This may be wrong.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted February 27, 2006 05:47 PM |
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1. I haven't checked yet, but I think that those are the levels of the creatures on the "good" creature specialists. Castle, Rampart and Tower (I think that this is the order from top to bottom - the last one is tower because *I think* it has 2 genie specialists).
2. Is it trying to tell us to build the mage guild?
4. I think it is:
(5 choose 7) * 0.4^5 * 0.6^2 = 21 * 0.4^5 * 0.6^2 = 0.0774144, or 7.74144% chance. Basically same formula as gnoll mage said, except that Manticores have 40% chance to paralyze.
5. There is no such thing as "the maximum probability"
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Gnoll_Mage
Responsible
Supreme Hero
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posted February 27, 2006 11:22 PM |
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Why did the website I found say 20% I wonder?
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Zsa
Famous Hero
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posted February 27, 2006 11:32 PM |
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1. GG russ, right on the money there
2. Common it's not that obvious, think of it of more like a riddle, what two messages is the riddle trying to tell us?
4. Gnoll_mage got this one right . Last time I checked the chance of getting paralyse from one attack was 20%
5. Yes there is.
Hint: you can make the probability of getting 6 pertifies in 5 rounds equal to 0 very easely.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted February 28, 2006 03:57 PM |
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I thought it was 40%, just like dusa queens or greater basilisks, but ah well...  Quote:
5. Yes there is.
Hint: you can make the probability of getting 6 pertifies in 5 rounds equal to 0 very easely.
Ok, I agree, there is maximum probabiliy. The maximum probability is 1 and the minimum is 0 (I think this is by definition).
But in your case it is either "probability", OR "the maximum number of petrifies" (or the maximum number of whatever else that can be counted). If you actually want to calculate the probability of a certain event, it is just "probability".
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Gnoll_Mage
Responsible
Supreme Hero
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posted February 28, 2006 10:47 PM |
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I agree Russ.
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Zsa
Famous Hero
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posted March 01, 2006 01:17 AM |
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Quote:
I thought it was 40%, just like dusa queens or greater basilisks, but ah well... Quote:
5. Yes there is.
Hint: you can make the probability of getting 6 pertifies in 5 rounds equal to 0 very easely.
Ok, I agree, there is maximum probabiliy. The maximum probability is 1 and the minimum is 0 (I think this is by definition).
But in your case it is either "probability", OR "the maximum number of petrifies" (or the maximum number of whatever else that can be counted). If you actually want to calculate the probability of a certain event, it is just "probability".
maximum probability is not 1 in this case, you have to compute that one . minimum probability is 0 that's correct.
No, in this case you have a variable which you can control, namely, the moves you perform with your stack on the battlefield. If all you do is sit and press defense, you will get a probability of 0.
To get the maximum chance of getting 6 petrifies in 5 turns, you have to make sure that you get the maximum number of attacks (or retaliations) possible on the enemy stacks.
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