|
| Thread: Fortress Dwarven Runemages' ATB Control | |
|
darkprince
Adventuring Hero
|
posted November 26, 2013 02:52 AM |
|
|
Fortress Dwarven Runemages' ATB Control
This thread is motivated by a discussion with zaio-baio who suggests that no faction (including Fortress) has any possibility beating 4 times growth Paladin end-game.
Let's imagine a duel between a Knight leading Haven troops (4 times growth Paladin and some others) and a Runemage leading Fortress troops of regular growth. To avoid being affected by dark magic / Divine Vengeance, Knight casts Magical Immunity on the Paladin stack.
The analyses below discusses the possibility of Fortress troops to use a series of ATB control abilities (Rune of Thunderclap, Shield Bash, and Paw Strike) with Soldier's Luck, Rune of Resurrection, and Last Stand to subdue this Paladin stack.
First, let's assume the Paladin stack has such enormous HP that any Fortress stack will only be able to trigger its ability at the minimum possibility 5% (e.g., Rune of Thunderclap). Rune of Thunderclap (ROT) has a trigger factor of 1.5, its actual possibility of triggering becomes 7.4% (=1-(1-5%)^1.5). With Soldier's Luck, this possibility is increased to 14.3% (=1-(1-7.4%)^2). The effect of ROT, if triggered, is to reduce the Paladin's ATB to zero.
All of the Fortress stacks will be able to trigger ROT when attacking or retaliating. On average, let's assume 5 out of 7 Fortress stacks hit the Paladin stack each turn (e.g., Harpooner, Blackbear Rider, Battlerager, Rune Patriarch, Flame Lord). The overall possibility of triggering ROT before Paladin acts per turn becomes 53.67% (=1-(1-14.3%)^5), more than a coin toss.
That's not all. Battlerager has Shield Bash and Blackbear Rider has Paw Strike, both abilities have the same effect as ROT. Shield Bash with Soldier's Luck has a possibility of 14.3%. Paw Strike's triggering is determined by a different formula (with a factor of 1, the chance depends on the number of tiles this creature moved to attack). Assume the Blackbear Rider moves 3 tiles with Soldier's Luck, the possibility of triggering Paw Strike is 26.49% (=1-((1-5%)^2))^5).
Take both Shield Bash and 3-tile Paw Strike into consideration. The total possibility of immobilizing that big Paladin stack is 70.81% (=1-(1-53.67%)*(1-14.3%)*(1-26.49%)). A mass haste improves the possibility over 80%. With 3 morales, this possibility reaches a shocking 90%.
What does an immobilized Paladin stack mean? No matter how much HP it has and the att/def difference between duel heroes, a Runemage with reasonable amount of resources will regard that Paladin stack as a shooting target.
BTW, Magical Immunity can be stolen by Rune of Magic Control, and then Runemage can do whatever to that Paladin stack.
|
|
Tiptoe_McGuffy
Adventuring Hero
|
|
posted November 26, 2013 03:56 AM |
|
|
Is this just against the 4x stack of paladins, or 4x paladins in addition to full knight army?
____________
"An Elf can take out a Ranger
any day of the week, but they
prefer to do it on weekends so
they can stay up late and catch
a show afterwards." -H2 tavern
|
|
darkprince
Adventuring Hero
|
|
posted November 26, 2013 03:24 PM |
|
|
Tiptoe_McGuffy said:
Is this just against the 4x stack of paladins, or 4x paladins in addition to full knight army?
4x stack of Paladins with other troops. It won't be the full Knight army because quite a few Footmen and Priests became Paladins themselves. Considering the investment in making Paladins, the Fortress side may also have a greater number in other stacks. Even if the Knight bought everything he had, the other stacks are of much less concern compared to the Paladin stack. Essentially, Haven army under Storm Wind has only two effective outputs: Paladins and Crossbowmen.
Be aware there is Rune of Berserking and Rune of Battle Rage combo.
|
|
Tiptoe_McGuffy
Adventuring Hero
|
|
posted November 26, 2013 03:35 PM |
|
|
Why don't you and zaio-baio go find out firsthand? That would be a pretty epic replay.
EDIT: How would it go if, say, instead of one stack+anti magic, it was Maeve with Mass Haste+Eternal Light and 2 stacks of paladins for Lay Hands+harder to stun both?
|
|
darkprince
Adventuring Hero
|
|
posted November 26, 2013 04:02 PM |
|
|
Tiptoe_McGuffy said:
How would it go if, say, instead of one stack+anti magic, it was Maeve with Mass Haste+Eternal Light and 2 stacks of paladins for Lay Hands+harder to stun both?
Maeve would be difficult to counter--she is great with all factions anyway. We are discussing something on average here.
In fact, it is almost impossible to train that many Paladins without the opponent amassing other stacks. A reasonable comparison should be done with two sides spending equal amount of gold on troops (or maybe letting Haven spend 1.5 times gold).
zaio-baio and I played some rounds of duels, but not with the scenario we are talking about here. Duels played by many others suggest Fortress beat Haven (2X Paladin) with ease 90%+ of the time. It's yet to be tested how many more Paladins the dwarfs can handle.
You can try yourself with the duel map here. Just train all the Paladins, and cut the number of other troops in half.
The biggest challenge of these tests is that a duel against Fortress can easily drag on for hours...
|
|
zaio-baio
Promising
Famous Hero
|
|
posted November 26, 2013 04:24 PM |
|
|
darkprince said:
This thread is motivated by a discussion with zaio-baio who suggests that no faction (including Fortress) has any possibility beating 4 times growth Paladin end-game.
Only that they have the upper hand -> more then 50% chance of winning once its week 8+, provided that a good number of requirements are met.
darkprince said:
Let's imagine a duel between a Knight leading Haven troops (4 times growth Paladin and some others) and a Runemage leading Fortress troops of regular growth.
4x Paladins + all other troops + well built hero.
darkprince said:
To avoid being affected by dark magic / Divine Vengeance, Knight casts Magical Immunity on the Paladin stack.
What i wont do  I would check the dwarf skills via arcane intuition. On my 1st turn i would most likely cast mass haste, mass righteous might, mass endurance or mass divine strength. Note that divine strength is extreamly good vs dwarfs, as their troops have close dmg ranges. So if you steal it with rune of magic control the bonus for your troops will not be so impressive. Seraphs are quite usefull in this matchup.
darkprince said:
The analyses below discusses the possibility of Fortress troops to use a series of ATB control abilities (Rune of Thunderclap, Shield Bash, and Paw Strike) with Soldier's Luck, Rune of Resurrection, and Last Stand to subdue this Paladin stack.
The paladins will most likely play 1st and kill 1 stack outright. Then if your rune of thungerclap fails you will lose 1 more stack to their retaliation.
Note that the bears and battleragers are the first stacks that i will focus on.
darkprince said:
First, let's assume the Paladin stack has such enormous HP that any Fortress stack will only be able to trigger its ability at the minimum possibility 5% (e.g., Rune of Thunderclap). Rune of Thunderclap (ROT) has a trigger factor of 1.5, its actual possibility of triggering becomes 7.4% (=1-(1-5%)^1.5). With Soldier's Luck, this possibility is increased to 14.3% (=1-(1-7.4%)^2). The effect of ROT, if triggered, is to reduce the Paladin's ATB to zero.
So what ? I have 101 palas, you bash them and kill 2, 99 palas left. For how long do you plan to keep them stunned ?
darkprince said:
All of the Fortress stacks will be able to trigger ROT when attacking or retaliating. On average, let's assume 5 out of 7 Fortress stacks hit the Paladin stack each turn (e.g., Harpooner, Blackbear Rider, Battlerager, Rune Patriarch, Flame Lord). The overall possibility of triggering ROT before Paladin acts per turn becomes 53.67% (=1-(1-14.3%)^5), more than a coin toss.
And while you do so the other overbuffed haven stacks will stay back ?
darkprince said:
That's not all. Battlerager has Shield Bash and Blackbear Rider has Paw Strike, both abilities have the same effect as ROT. Shield Bash with Soldier's Luck has a possibility of 14.3%. Paw Strike's triggering is determined by a different formula (with a factor of 1, the chance depends on the number of tiles this creature moved to attack). Assume the Blackbear Rider moves 3 tiles with Soldier's Luck, the possibility of triggering Paw Strike is 26.49% (=1-((1-5%)^2))^5).
Take both Shield Bash and 3-tile Paw Strike into consideration. The total possibility of immobilizing that big Paladin stack is 70.81% (=1-(1-53.67%)*(1-14.3%)*(1-26.49%)). A mass haste improves the possibility over 80%. With 3 morales, this possibility reaches a shocking 90%.
Those bears are great, thats why they die first.
darkprince said:
What does an immobilized Paladin stack mean? No matter how much HP it has and the att/def difference between duel heroes, a Runemage with reasonable amount of resources will regard that Paladin stack as a shooting target.
You really think that a good haven player will play the same way as the AI ?
darkprince said:
BTW, Magical Immunity can be stolen by Rune of Magic Control, and then Runemage can do whatever to that Paladin stack.
On your first turn your hero will play after the paladins. I can simply mass cleanse a puppet master and then cast another mass spell. Anyways its ATB-dependent, so i may cast a mass spell first and then mass cleansing.
darkprince said:
We are discussing something on average here.
So no ingvar and helmar?
darkprince said:
In fact, it is almost impossible to train that many Paladins without the opponent amassing other stacks. A reasonable comparison should be done with two sides spending equal amount of gold on troops (or maybe letting Haven spend 1.5 times gold).
And how do you plan to amass other stacks ? Its 1 castle vs 1 castle or 2 vs 2. If the map is rich enough there is no problem to train in all towns and buy all troops. Have in mind that each relic you sell provides you about 7,5-10k gold, and each major art about 5k. Magic vaulths, dwarf treasuries etc also give lots of gold. As long as you have war mashines and logistics you wont have much problems if any.
P.S
Hope you arent speaking only from your experience on that 10 week map, it doesnt consider the building order or any low tier dwellings.
On rmg maps or ubi maps you wont have 20 archangels and 240 crossbows week 10. Thats very big lvl 7 and very small lvl 2 stack... Im pretty sure that all numbers are messed up on that map. Anyways, its still fun.
The dwarves have lower might stats and will also lack empathy and retribution. Also haven gets more might stats from enlightenment.
Btw Maeve rocks, cuz you cant steal her super haste - you steal a normal haste spell (+40%ini)  .
There is also the thing that the haven army doesnt need to charge if the dwarf lacks destructive. You can simply get preparation with them and hit defend, while your boosted dougie-led crossbow stack kills those dwarves stack by stack. Their stuns are annoying, and so are the misses, but they wont deal enough dmg and once the thunderclap rune is used the dwarves will be in a very bad spot. On a side note both the etherealness rune and the rune of dragonform can be cleansed.
Dont let yourself get fooled by that stormwind perk. It feels very strong vs haven, but only when the paladin stack is normal sized, because it cripples about 50% of the haven's dmg-dealing potential. Once the paladins are 4x the relative effect of stormwind on the haven's army strength is way weaker.
to be continued ...
|
|
darkprince
Adventuring Hero
|
|
posted November 26, 2013 06:02 PM |
|
|
zaio-baio said:
And how do you plan to amass other stacks ? Its 1 castle vs 1 castle or 2 vs 2. If the map is rich enough there is no problem to train in all towns and buy all troops. Have in mind that each relic you sell provides you about 7,5-10k gold, and each major art about 5k. Magic vaulths, dwarf treasuries etc also give lots of gold. As long as you have war mashines and logistics you wont have much problems if any.
It would be a fundamental mistake for Fortress to play on a 5+ week map without logistics being provided at Week 1 (and no other boosts). In addition, it would be extremely stupid for any faction to play against Haven on a map so rich that the Knight can train all the Paladins while buying all the other stacks. Nobody will play with you in such a setting. The resource needs to be constrained and both factions, if used by equally competitive players, should have roughly the same share of it (a difference no more than 40% vs. 60%).
|
|
zaio-baio
Promising
Famous Hero
|
|
posted November 26, 2013 06:30 PM |
|
|
darkprince said:
It would be a fundamental mistake for Fortress to play on a 5+ week map without logistics being provided at Week 1 (and no other boosts). In addition, it would be extremely stupid for any faction to play against Haven on a map so rich that the Knight can train all the Paladins while buying all the other stacks. Nobody will play with you in such a setting. The resource needs to be constrained and both factions, if used by equally competitive players, should have roughly the same share of it (a difference no more than 40% vs. 60%).
The deal is that most players dont creep fast enough and cant plan that much ahead to train so many paladins. You can fail pretty badly if you dont calculate your gold, movement and resourses a few weeks ahead, and you also need to know a few tricks as far as creeping is conserned.
darkprince said:
You can try yourself with the duel map here. Just train all the Paladins, and cut the number of other troops in half.
Dont forget to cut the dwarven numbers in half too .
Anyways, the dwarves are far from weak, they are just slow. Thats the main reason why ppl dont choose them so often on rmg maps.
|
|
zaio-baio
Promising
Famous Hero
|
|
posted January 02, 2014 03:02 PM |
|
|
darkprince said:
Duels played by many others suggest Fortress beat Haven (2X Paladin) with ease 90%+ of the time.
I would like to put that to a test 
Pm me if you have time, we can play 10 games on that 10week map, me, haven vs you, dwarf and discuss the games here. Im pretty sure that i will win more then 1/10.
|
|
darkprince
Adventuring Hero
|
|
posted January 07, 2014 05:49 AM |
|
|
zaio-baio said:
I would like to put that to a test
Pm me if you have time, we can play 10 games on that 10week map, me, haven vs you, dwarf and discuss the games here. Im pretty sure that i will win more then 1/10.
Maybe around the end of this month.
|
| |
|
|
