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| Thread: US Politics 2024-2026 |  This thread is pages long: 1 2 3 4 5 6 · «PREV / NEXT» |
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Galaad
Hero of Order
Li mort as morz, li vif as vis
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posted November 22, 2024 12:21 AM |
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Blizzard said:
The timing isn't a coincidence.
Clearly a response, with concern mounting over the direct threat to the West. The margin for action is shrinking —what’s next, a nuclear test? And after that...?
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Ghost
Undefeatable Hero
Therefore I am
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posted November 22, 2024 03:04 AM |
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Remember the Bible said WW3 that world vs Mikael (Jesus).. So not worry!
They call armageddon.. So Putler can try a nuclear strike against spirits to protect his small Moscow..
Biden did right!
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Blizzard
Known Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted November 22, 2024 10:15 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 22:43, 22 Nov 2024.
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@galaad
Putin has already mentioned targeting US facilities with missile strikes. Not exactly surprising. He has made threats before of course, but eventually it could be more than a threat. There are literally US-made missiles striking Russian territory, which is so dangerous. I hope Putin just waits it out until the administration changes, which I think he will.
US politics is all-around so weird and ideological right now. Elon Musk and RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard all on the same team. It is such a weird coalition.
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Salamandre
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Wog refugee
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posted November 22, 2024 10:51 PM |
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You make it sound like the new team, not yet in function, is somehow responsible about the situation. They are not.
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Blizzard
Known Hero
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posted November 22, 2024 11:20 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 23:21, 22 Nov 2024.
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Yeah I know.
Just last page I called Biden stupid for it.
I just mean in general, US politics is weird compared to 10 or 20 years ago. Such weird alliances of rebels vs establishment.
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JollyJoker
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posted November 23, 2024 09:23 PM |
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Wtf are you afraid of? That Putin fires a nuclear missile on a NATO country?
He's counting on your stupid reactions. But the moment he DOES fire a nuclear missile he has no control anymore about anything. He LOSES initiative because he would have done anything he can do short of annihilating anything. Initiative would shift completely.
So what Putin IS doing - and keep in mind he is already fully at war for nearly 3 years - is, mounting PSYCHOLOGICAL pressure.
But, see, the situation hasn't changed ONE BIT. It's still Russia having attacked another country and STILL wanting complete control over it (and he also wants all states joining NATO after 1997 to un-join).
So Biden allowing Ukraine to use m issiles for strikes into Russia hs been the correct message. It's only an escalation in the Russian narrative, not in the non-Russian. Why? Because Ukraine already attacked Russian territory - and with weapons delivered by the West, so it's actually nothing new. The tanks used to attack the Kursk region aren't Ukraine-built tanks, so that's all just smoke and mirrors.
And, Christ, don't be so godawfully afraid for your miserable life. People are dying by the droves anyway, all the time, and there will die a lot more due to climate change alone. If Russia manages to strike enough fear, people will think thrice before deciding to defend Riga in five years.
Putin's idea of a new Russian empire within the borders of the Soviet Union must not come true.
Don't you think that the alliance with North Korea is a big hint here? I mean, please. They aren't allowed ANY internet there. It's basically a slave state with a standing army of nearly 1.3 million soldiers. 5% of the population. That's like the US had 16.5 million people under weapons. Or France 3.4 million people.
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Blizzard
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posted November 24, 2024 04:50 AM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 04:52, 24 Nov 2024.
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He could launch some tactical nukes on Ukraine at key locations. It wouldn't be Hiroshima Part 2. It would be more modern and more precise. Something to devastate the war effort. Putin cannot lose the war outright. That is a non-option for him.
NATO is a hard firewall against Russian imperialism: hitting one NATO country means hitting them all. That is the whole idea of NATO, because it makes it impossible for a big country like Russia to poach on smaller countries one at a time. Ukraine isn't in NATO.
You are correct the deaths from the war in Ukraine are extremely tiny compared to what climate change can do, but part of the reason green energy projects are being cut and/or stalled is from the breakdown in global trade and cooperation. When there are economic woes like inflation, that is where the public attention is going to focus on, and there is no getting around that. The economy has always been the top issue for the plurality of voters.
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JollyJoker
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posted November 24, 2024 10:10 AM |
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Blizzard said:
NATO is a hard firewall against Russian imperialism: hitting one NATO country means hitting them all. That is the whole idea of NATO, because it makes it impossible for a big country like Russia to poach on smaller countries one at a time. Ukraine isn't in NATO.
Well, that's the question, isn't?
Ukraine isn't a NATO country, so Putin can do whatever he wants, including dropping tactical nukes on them. However, depending on the US commitment the question is, IF in three years time Putin knocks at Vilnius - will the European part of NATO go all-in then? And what happens, if Kim knocks at their Southern neighbors' door?
Things are becoming increasingly unstable, with the Near East being another powder keg in danger of fully detonating, while international institutions being undermined (like the international court).
But I was trying to make a point against "fear of escalation". That's what this is all about. See, the West is free in debating their fears - Russia isn't. You wouldn't hear anything about RUSSIAN population debating about their fears of escalation. So Putin is using that because it will influence the public opinion which is bad for moral (and tends to produce election results which play into Putin's cards).
EDIT: Just read that Senators Graham and Cotton threaten countries that enforce the arrest warrant of the ICC against Netanjahu and his former minister of defense - even with war. Canada, the UK and the Netherlands have already decided that they WILL enforce it - while Hungary's Orban has invited them for a friendly visit into his country.
Things threaten to fall apart quickly now that reality tests the wonderful principles of law and order.
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artu
Promising
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My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted November 24, 2024 10:57 AM |
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John Mearsheimer is always interesting to listen.
This is right before the US election, a little outdated but lot of the topics are still the same:
Link
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Salamandre
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posted November 24, 2024 01:14 PM |
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The last 20 minutes or so are staggering, when she stutters about "why not move the Palestinians from Palestine because in history you have to accept the world being unfair" - which is basically what the West intrinsically and subliminally thinks overall, but of course when it comes to Ukraine, that is out of question. Doh.
But at least she makes a point when acknowledging that Germany became the prison of one way thinking, free speech is long gone.
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JollyJoker
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posted November 24, 2024 02:05 PM |
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Mearsheimer is right about Germany - but only to a certain extent. The difference is that "Israel" and "Jews" are not the same as "Netanjahu". It is certainly difficult (in Germany) to combine the words "Israel" and "Jews" with, say, "genocide" or "concentration camp" in any other way than the former being the victims of the latter, but it is definitely possible to combine the latter with specific NAMES - like Netanjahu. Sinnle individuals CAN be war criminals, no matter their nation or religion - which is a big difference.
In fact, if one or two persons are made responsible for the whole mess, then the rest of Israel becomes victims again because those individuals are making them accessories to war crimes.
Bottom line is, that generalization of Mearsheimer is wrong and Salamandre's double generalization is doubly wrong:
You have to be a bit more careful in Germany HOW you phrase things, but that's true for everything.
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Ghost
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Therefore I am
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posted November 24, 2024 02:22 PM |
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Can I tell you? Israel is a state.. A national believer is a Jew, but a non-believer as an ordinary civilian means an Israeli..
I don't know about his religious matters.. Ateist also means Israeli..
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Blizzard
Known Hero
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posted November 24, 2024 04:04 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 17:11, 24 Nov 2024.
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For the record, Lindsey Graham says crazy **** fairly regularly. When a US drone was shot down in the Black Sea last year, he said that the US airforce should be attacking the Russian airforce/navy. Everybody just ignored him.
Senators don't get to single-handedly decide stuff. He is just a barking dog on social media. The US isn't a member of the international court (a lot of risks would come with that, because if the USA ever got involved in a major conflict, the morality of the international court would be seen as an irritant, since lots and lots of civilians would be dying), but there is no way it would actually do anything to a critical ally if they arrested Netanyahu. Sanction the UK or France or Canada or Germany? Major trading partners? That is never going to happen. Nothing to gain from it and a ton to lose. PMs are easily replaced.
And it doesn't matter either way, because Netanyahu isn't dumb enough to take a trip to any of those places. He knows he needs to bunker down at this point now that he has so much blood on his hands. He serves a select group of Israeli constituents.
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JollyJoker
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posted November 24, 2024 05:18 PM |
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The thing is, the institution was founded knowing full well, that it would be difficult to impossible to enforce the finding of the court, but obviously, the more countries acknowledge and support it, the more awkward it gets for the people that should be arrested and put on trial to move around.
In this case, if the whole of Europe would support this (and Canada) - there was only the US (mainly) to turn to, which would give the US a much stronger hand in pressuring him to do the right thing.
But all that won't happen, it's just a farce (we remember that there was a chance to arrest Putin - was it in Kazakhstan? - when Putin was visiting there, since that state is actually supporting the ICC, but they were afraid to take action and nothing happened).
In Germany, meanwhile, there is the additional problem, that the current government is basically non-existent anymore and the Germans will elect a new one in February (quite probably), but until then I doubt anything delicate will be decided.
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Blizzard
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posted November 24, 2024 05:29 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 17:35, 24 Nov 2024.
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Germany isn't going to arrest an Israeli PM. It should, but that would be extremely awkward. Maybe arrest him and then immediately transfer him while at the same time apologizing and issuing a statement saying that it was compelled to do so.
The sort of countries that would follow the ICC to the letter would be the ones with the least skin in the game. Like, who actually cares about the Netherlands? There is no need for Netanyahu to ever visit the Netherlands.
Being restricted going to the US actually would be annoying, but the US is too fearful to committ to the ICC.
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JollyJoker
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posted November 24, 2024 06:23 PM |
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Pending decision in Germany. It's extremely awkward, because Germany is one of the most steadfast and loudest supporters of the ICC, so the decision will cause trouble one way OR another. It's just a matter of selling it the right way.
I EDIT this to add something I read. ACTUALLY, the German solution will simply be that Netanjahu won't come to Germany, but will instead be visited if it comes to that.
You know. Diplomacy.
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Blizzard
Known Hero
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posted November 24, 2024 11:30 PM |
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And then while you are visiting him, bring some special forces disguised as diplomats to kidnap him and fly him back to Berlin under cover of darkness.
My plan is better.
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artu
Promising
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My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted November 26, 2024 12:42 AM |
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Edited by artu at 03:15, 26 Nov 2024.
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Salamandre said:
The last 20 minutes or so are staggering, when she stutters about "why not move the Palestinians from Palestine because in history you have to accept the world being unfair" - which is basically what the West intrinsically and subliminally thinks overall, but of course when it comes to Ukraine, that is out of question. Doh
I get what you’re saying but I also get why she says that. The Israel-Palestine conflict is much older and seems much more stale and unsolvable in comparison. Both sides are motivated by religious dogma (although Zionism is a rather nationalist ideology, it still stems from the notion of “the promised land.” National identity and religion are interlinked in Judaism, it’s an ethno-religion.)
The Israeli response to the Hamas attack has been way passed unproportional for quite a time now, yet the reason they can still get away with it despite all the reaction is because the Palestinian resistance is represented by the most repulsive ideology, especially in Western eyes, Islamic Jihad. During the 20th century, before Hamas, the issue was usually “owned” by the left and the radical left. But since the Cold War ended, that kind of “anti-imperialist” movements are gone, replaced by jihadists mostly. This comes with the rhetoric of “evil West, evil Jews, evil civilization, etc etc…” which is something very hard to empathize with. Even if Israel stops, the Palistinians will still be oppressed by their own Hamas. And Hamas did spend all the international aid to build tunnels for warfare, instead of humanitarian purposes. Had it been a secular force of resistance, the story would be a very different one in terms of public relatability in general.
On the other hand, in the long run, what the Israelis are doing is suicidal. They are making all their surrounding Muslim neighbours hate them relentlessly, who are many many many times their population, depending on some ally over the Atlantic. And USA is known for letting its allies down consistently. As a young state with no experience, they are turning themselves into a hate magnet of the region. How long can that last? 50 years? 100 years? And for what, 360 km2 of land, 500 km2 of land? Mearsheimer is so right about how they are digging themselves in a hole. It’s blindness.
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Are you pretty? This is my occasion. - Ghost
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Blizzard
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posted November 26, 2024 01:10 AM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 02:07, 26 Nov 2024.
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The lack of sexual relationships, marriage, and children between Jewish Israelis and Arabs/Palestinians is another major reason why the conflict is unsolvable, or maybe even it is the #1 reason. Jews aren't suppose to marry non-Jews and only Muslim men can marry non-Muslims, and it is incredibly unlikely for a Jewish woman to want to marry a Muslim man.
I'm not being funny about this. Ordinarily, when there are two competing and fighting ethnic groups occupying the same land, they inevitably also interbreed and intermarry, and after a few generations, the conflict fades away because so many people are now related to each other and living in the same neighborhood. They gradually blend into one ethnic group. That is essentially how what we very broadly call "Arabs" came into existence. Just a bunch of tribes intermarrying.
Since that isn't happening (much) in Israel because of religious and political reasons, that means the conflict stays fresh and strong with each new generation, and there remains a distinct divide (us and them) between Israelis and Palestinians.
And I agree that in the long-term, Israel is screwed if they don't change course. They cannot win the PR war with what they are currently doing. Also, know about all of those Palestinians who have been killed in the past year by bombs or bullets or lack of medical care? Guess what. They have all been replaced and then some because of the birthrate. Israel has actually lost ground at enormous financial cost in the process. In the long haul, the Arab world is going to win and Israel is going to lose, one orgasm at a time, because Arabs are in the 21st century what the Irish were in the 19th century. You can kill one and two more will quickly replace them. Wars aren't free. They are very expensive.
Whether the US eventually gives up on Israel at some point is really entirely Israel's decision. If Israel doubles down and keeps doing what they're doing, then yes, eventually, American commitment will erode (how could it possibly not?) and Israel will no longer be seen as a worthwhile investment. Liabilities don't make good allies. Israel isn't actually a necessary counterweight against Iran. Saudi Arabia can fill that role just fine, and they are more than ever capable of doing that effectively as they have modernized themselves these past 20 years. If Israel changes policy, then they might maintain a strong relationship with the US and they'll have a future.
Now, on the other hand, Putin is right that the trauma from the war in Ukraine will mostly heal after a few generations. People will make friends, intermingle, intermarry, and live together. There won't be a hard division like there is in Israel, which means no clear apartheid of haves and have nots. A sense of quiet and normalcy will manifest in the culture.
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Salamandre
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posted November 26, 2024 04:20 AM |
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artu said:
The Israel-Palestine conflict is much older and seems much more stale and unsolvable in comparison.
Yes and no. As long as the influential countries keep considering Israel and Zionists as untouchable, whatever they do, yes. No, if we handle them as if it was any other country. Subject to international laws, therefore to sanctions.
This is where I always disagreed with fred69, it is not the Jews who are the problem, but the Westerner elite who keep knelling before Jews, to purge Holocaust anathema. How long still, there is the question.
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