| They say France has fallen | |
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Panda_Tar
Known Hero
CH mascot and right-wing
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posted October 04, 2026 05:44 PM |
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They say France has fallen
Is there any insider here to tell us what's happening there with a more reliable account of facts?
Some news reach here, but they're often biased, especially coming from the mainstream media, and I don't know how France's own outlets disclose whatever is happening there, or how accurate that is.
What we know here is that immigrants have taken hold, and there's no going back.
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Galaad
Hero of Order
Li mort as morz, li vif as vis
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posted October 04, 2026 09:46 PM |
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I live in Paris and I'm French, so I can at least give you the perspective of someone who actually lives here.
No, I wouldn't say that France has "fallen". If your picture of the country comes mostly from dramatic clips circulating online, you're probably getting a very distorted view of everyday life here. France is still France, people live perfectly normal lives, and most places are nothing like the warzone sometimes portrayed on social media.
That doesn't mean everything is fine either.
Immigration has become a major issue, and pretending otherwise would be just as misleading. According to INSEE, immigrants represented about 11.6% of the French population in 2025. Integration works very differently depending on the place, and the demographic and cultural changes are obviously much more visible in certain neighbourhoods and suburbs than the national average suggests.
So I wouldn't dismiss people's concerns about immigration, integration or security. But "immigrants have taken hold and there's no going back" is already an interpretation rather than a factual description of what France looks like.
Personally, though, I think France's deeper problem is political.
There is an extraordinary level of distrust towards the people and institutions governing the country. The latest CEVIPOF survey found that only 22% of French respondents trusted politics, and only 20% trusted the National Assembly, while trust in local mayors was still around 60%. Interestingly, people haven't simply rejected democracy: a large majority still considers democracy a good system, while also believing that the way it currently functions in France is deeply unsatisfactory.
An earlier CEVIPOF study also found that 57% of French respondents believed that "real power lies elsewhere", often pointing to financial markets, the EU or large corporations. That's actually closer to my own concern. I wouldn't state as a fact that France is "controlled by an oligarchy", but there is clearly a widespread feeling that elections do not give citizens as much control over policy as the democratic system theoretically suggests.
Then you have the economic side. Purchasing power hasn't simply been falling every single year, so I don't want to exaggerate that either. It actually recovered strongly in 2024 before declining again in 2025. But after several years of inflation, housing costs and other unavoidable expenses, a lot of people genuinely feel squeezed. France also has very high public debt and deficits, weak growth, unemployment rising again, housing problems and increasing pressure on parts of the healthcare and public-service system.
There is a demographic problem too: the population is ageing rapidly, fertility has fallen sharply and in 2025 France recorded more deaths than births for the first time since the end of WWII. That's going to put additional pressure on pensions, healthcare and public finances.
So immigration is definitely part of the French debate, and in some places it's a very visible part of it. But I think reducing everything happening in France to immigration misses most of the picture.
To me, the bigger story is a combination of political distrust, a feeling of democratic powerlessness, economic stagnation, pressure on living standards, strained public finances and services, demographic ageing, and disagreements over immigration and integration on top of all that.
So no, France hasn't "fallen". But I also wouldn't tell you that everything is fine and that all the concerns you hear about are invented.
It's a wealthy, functioning country going through a fairly serious political, economic and social malaise. And depending on which media you follow, you can get an absurdly exaggerated picture in either direction.
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Panda_Tar
Known Hero
CH mascot and right-wing
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posted October 04, 2026 10:25 PM |
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Ah, that clarifies a lot, thanks, Galaad.
Here, political conflicting and mistrust have reached a maximum. Right now, we're waiting the results of the presidential elections, which has just ended, 17h. Generally, we get final results around 20h-21h.
Our problem here, besides all those you've mentioned (except for immigration, because it's not an issue here), a very similar distrust to the intitutions, and a feeling that someone else is behind the curtains (here, one could say it regards the 'extreme Center', neither right nor left) is glaring. But right now, the utmost catastrophe regards the Supreme Court: they have in practice invade and controlled the other two powers. The number of illegal decisions and machinations the last years, but notably the last days, is beyond words. We're actually specting a coup, if Flávio wins. Which is ironic, because they have arrested his father for the same (unproven, illegal arrest) reason the last elections. Not only him, but in Brazil, there are around 1200 people in jail due political issues, not mentioning the exiled. It hasn't happened like that since when Military ruled the country, decades ago.
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Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
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posted October 04, 2026 10:57 PM |
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Taxation in France goes way over the head, therefore people lose motivation for creating wealth or even marry and have kids. Part of the political spectrum even asks to seize all the wealth of billionaires, literally saying they should not exist.
As per se, immigration should never be a problem, if you select each individual as every country should. But the generous welfare system is a call for every poor people on the planet and naturally it drains the resources, which France doesn't have so it keeps borrowing. It never stopped and will never stop because it is ideological and became the ADN of French politics. Add to that that a big part of the migrants from the former colonies hate France and french as much as they can, so integration or even living aside is out of reach.
Whining about demographics falling and proposing to compensate with migrants while you allow 250 000 abortions every year is another ADN formed anomaly.
For me, personally, it has fallen and is over, without comeback possibility. The debt is too big (is not about how big is but at what extent the politics were so wrong to lead at) and the reforms required to pay it back will send the country in stone age for decades if not centuries.
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You must not OFFEND people - Jolly Joker
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Galaad
Hero of Order
Li mort as morz, li vif as vis
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posted October 04, 2026 11:17 PM |
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Panda, thanks for the perspective on Brazil. I don't follow Brazilian politics closely enough to comment on it properly, but what you're describing sounds like a much more acute institutional crisis than the one I was referring to in France.
Salamandre, the "whining about demographics" part misrepresents what I wrote. I mentioned demographic decline as one of several pressures on France; I said nothing about replacing births with immigration, and nothing about abortion.
As for the debt, I agree that France has a serious fiscal problem. But "Stone Age for decades or centuries" is not a factual conclusion that follows from the debt figures. States do not need to repay their entire public debt to zero; the issue is whether the debt-to-GDP ratio and interest burden can be brought onto a sustainable trajectory.
That's all I was saying: France has serious problems, but "France is over" is a conclusion, not a statistic.
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Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
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posted October 04, 2026 11:29 PM |
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Right, you didn't write about compensating with migrants, thats why my post wasn't directed at you 
But at all those politics which keep hammering us about how without immigration the country would be over. I don't agree, cut taxes by half and people will be happy to do any job because the pay will be decent. They will produce more, they will spend more.
As about opinion vs statistics, is simple. If France can't borrow money, let's say, for one year, can it pay all the pensions, salaries, public services and assistance welfare ?
No.
Does it have a solution for fixing it ?
No.
I would say it is in pretty bad shape.
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ColonelSanders
Hired Hero
Bouillabaisseholic
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posted October 04, 2026 11:33 PM |
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Simple really: the EU does not give a **** about its own people, which is utterly disgraceful. Natives? **** em. Recent immigrants? **** em. What matters most to the bureacracy is THE GREATER GOOD of the world. They do social engineering and global engineering at the expense of individual economies, which really means at the expense of middle and working class ordinary people. So yeah, Paris needs to get a little bit 1789ish... minus the violence and the stabbings and beheadings and such ofc. I am pretty sure it would hurt more to get your head chopped off with a scimitar than a guillotine, and France is more about scimitars these days now that it is an Islamic Republic.
And that is why the USA (including under Trump) > Europe. The USA cares about its own well-being, or at least more than the EU does.
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Panda_Tar
Known Hero
CH mascot and right-wing
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posted October 04, 2026 11:41 PM |
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Thanks for complementing.
I didn't actually delved much of the problems currently affecting us. When I said my country is about to collapse, it's not hyperbolical. It's just that there's so many things to point out, it would require me to write a lot of things. I might write them here after the results. I'm very anxious right now. 35% of urns computed so far. But some results abroad are disappointing. The city of Berlin, for example, 80% to Lula. If these people lived here, they would know better.
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Galaad
Hero of Order
Li mort as morz, li vif as vis
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posted October 04, 2026 11:45 PM |
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Edited by Galaad at 23:50, 04 Oct 2026.
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Salamandre said:
Does it have a solution for fixing it ?
No.
The OECD's 2026 report explicitly lays out a path to stabilise the debt, mainly through sustained fiscal consolidation, more efficient public spending and structural reforms. It estimates an adjustment of around 3% of GDP by 2030.
So yes, serious problem. But not "no way out".
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Salamandre
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Wog refugee
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posted October 04, 2026 11:54 PM |
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Galaad said:
The OECD's 2026 report explicitly lays out a path to stabilise the debt, mainly through sustained fiscal consolidation, more efficient public spending and structural reforms.
OECD Policy Recommendations for France in 2025 :
• Slash Public Outlays: Implement deep, structural reductions in public spending rather than relying solely on tax hikes.
• Tax Shift: Restructure heavy labor taxes toward less growth-distortive mechanisms like consumption or property taxes to boost corporate competitiveness.
Then :
France's public debt-to-GDP ratio raised from 115.6% in 2025 to a projected 119.3% by the end of 2026.
Look, you can keep talking, if there are no ears to hear, you waste your time.
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You must not OFFEND people - Jolly Joker
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Galaad
Hero of Order
Li mort as morz, li vif as vis
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posted October 05, 2026 12:00 AM |
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You're actually proving my point.
The OECD projects debt rising under the current trajectory, which is precisely why it recommends further fiscal consolidation. Its 2026 report estimates that an adjustment of around 3% of GDP by 2030 could stabilise the debt ratio.
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Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
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posted October 05, 2026 12:11 AM |
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No, because you assume that the recommendations were followed by implemented decisions.
There was no "sustained fiscal consolidation" (what does ever means ?), they just raised taxes everywhere
There was no reduction in public spending, 2026 > 2025
There was no structural reform, name one if I'm wrong. There was one heavily required, the retirement reform, they let it go.
So France lost went from 115% to 119% just from inertia of bad decisions, without any attempt to correct the falling trajectory.
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purerogue3
Famous Hero
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posted October 05, 2026 12:12 AM |
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The frog is way too comfortable in the water.
Everybody (except China) is in an inflationary debt spiral in which the natural tendency is to keep adding because there is no reward for fixing it.
Trump is speed-running this, and Japan is finally exploding in slow motion after experts have been wondering why it hasn't happened for the past 30yrs. SAUDI ARABIA is BORROWING MONEY
Why do you think EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE is getting is increasing in price except what you earn.
The world (=most people), is royally screwed economically.
How is it French (~european) pensions are so generous? unsustainable.. new workers will not get it, and the prices have just started to increase
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Galaad
Hero of Order
Li mort as morz, li vif as vis
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posted October 05, 2026 12:20 AM |
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That's not what I assumed.
The OECD itself says France did make a significant fiscal adjustment in 2025, mostly through higher taxes, and that the 2026 budget also includes spending cuts.
You asked for one structural reform: France reformed its unemployment-benefit system in April 2025.
So "France hasn't done enough" is fair. "There was no consolidation, no reform and no solution" isn't what the OECD says.
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Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
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posted October 05, 2026 12:35 AM |
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The unemployment reform generates 1,5 billion euros yearly.
France needs between 30 and 60 billions yearly to stabilize its budget.
So yeah, we can say it didn't do enough. You are right, lol.
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purerogue3
Famous Hero
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posted October 05, 2026 12:44 AM |
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Clinton balanced the budget and couldn't get ONE bj in the OO without republicans riding him like they enjoyed it
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