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JoonasTo
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
What if Elvin was female?
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posted November 07, 2008 07:02 PM |
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D'oh!
Of course. I was using 0,684. *facepalm here
Like I said in the beginning I was too tired to do maths. 
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TheDeath
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posted November 07, 2008 07:02 PM |
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Joonas, are you using addition in probabilities rather than multiplication?
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Asheera
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posted November 07, 2008 07:08 PM |
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So I was correct - then I was correct with TotE as well (and the chances are lower, because of the possibility of getting Stronghold with no Confusion chances at all)
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JoonasTo
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Undefeatable Hero
What if Elvin was female?
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posted November 07, 2008 07:11 PM |
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Edited by JoonasTo at 19:12, 07 Nov 2008.
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Yup. 
And I should have known that when I feel tired I shouldn't be doing maths.
EDIT: Oh and there's no another third level dark spell in tote.
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homm3megejas
Adventuring Hero
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posted November 07, 2008 07:47 PM |
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Quote:
1) with the actual magical system of BASIC HoMM 5, starting with any TWO towns (any two meaning two random ones). What probability do you have to get the Confusion spell BEFORE you actually start and know what towns you will get)?
There is six town, any of them to get is 1/6 chance. chance to get a confusion spell in haven, inferno, necropolis, academy (library) mage guild are 1/2, in sylvan and dungeon- 1/4. I believe, that the tricky part is heroes - Alastor (because the question didn't disables for you to get these spell from a town  ). However chance to get Alastor in inferno is only 1/8. So chance to get these spell in 1 town are: (1/6)*(3*1/2+2*1/4+1/2+(1/2)*(1/8))=41/96. for two towns probably will be: 1-(41/96)^2=(96^2-41^2)/96^2 about 0,8175998263(8).
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Asheera
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posted November 07, 2008 08:00 PM |
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Quote:
EDIT: Oh and there's no another third level dark spell in tote.
It's enough to be three spells in TotE for level 3 in ANY school to screw up my calculations, since those that don't have Dark Magic as native will have to pick between Dark & something else, which probably has 3 spells instead of 2.
So, is there a school with 3 spells at level 3 instead of 2?
* checks *
Yes it is: Destructive So those that have Light & Summoning as Native (e.g. Academy) have other chances than what I did.
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JollyJoker
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posted November 07, 2008 08:34 PM |
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Until now you suck all in probability math.
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Asheera
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posted November 07, 2008 08:37 PM |
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Please enlighten us then
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JollyJoker
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posted November 07, 2008 09:27 PM |
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Well, that's not good, none of you.
Let's first check the town probabilities:
Both Elves: 25% or 1/4 each (which means 3/4 chnce of not getting it)
The 4 others 50% or 1/2 each (1/2 of not getting it)
Now let's check the 2-town cases: 21 different possibilities (if there were no double towns possible it would be 6*5/(1*2) or 15, but since double towns are possible it's 1+2+...+6 or 21 possible town combinations.
Since we have 2 dfferent town probabilities there are 3 different probability cases:
1) both towns have the 1/4 probabilty. this is possible in 3 of the 21 cases (Dun-Dun, Dun-Syl, Syl-Syl). The probability of NOT getting Confusion is 3/4*3/4 or 9/16, which means, the prob to get it is 7/16.
2) both towns have the 1/2 prob. Here we have 1+2+3+4=10 of the 21 cases. The chance NOT getting confusion is 1/2*1/2, so the chance getting it, is 3/4.
3) Mixed prob. Cases here are 8 of the 21. The chances NOT getting Confusion is 3/4*1/2, so here we get 5/8.
Which means, the overall probability is:
[(3*7/16)+(10*3/4)+(8*5/8)]/21 = 0.657738
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Gnoll_Mage
Responsible
Supreme Hero
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posted November 07, 2008 10:38 PM |
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I'm getting a different answer.
If two towns have chance 0.25 and four towns have chance 0.5 then we can average the six values to give 5/12. This is the chance of one town getting Confusion. Now we use the binomial distribution:
2C1*(5/12)*(7/12) + 2C2*(5/12)^2 = 0.65972*
Is good?
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Gnoll_Mage
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Supreme Hero
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posted November 07, 2008 10:40 PM |
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Plus surely there are 6*6 different choices of town pairs?
Sorry, I'm forgetting that we're doing combinations not permutations.
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Asheera
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posted November 07, 2008 10:48 PM |
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@Gnollmage: That's exactly what I did as well. I have absolutely no idea why JJ came up with a different answer.
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TheDeath
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posted November 07, 2008 10:51 PM |
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I have a question (been a while since I played with 2 towns): can both towns get the same spell at a level (in mage guild)? Like, can you get 2 Confusion spells on both?
This increases the probability because there can't be the same spell twice (and I'm talking about non-confusion spells here).
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Asheera
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posted November 07, 2008 10:52 PM |
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Yes, you can have 2 confusions in both towns.
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Gnoll_Mage
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Supreme Hero
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posted November 07, 2008 10:58 PM |
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However, when I look at it like this I get a different answer:
There are 10 different town pairs were both towns have a 0.5 chance, three pairs with both having 0.25, and eight with the towns having different chances. So, there is a 10/21 of a town pair with both having a 0.5 chance, etc..
If both towns have a 0.5 chance, the total chance is 0.75. For both 0.25, it's 5/16; for one of each, 5/8. Multiply and sum and you get 0.63988....
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Gnoll_Mage
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posted November 07, 2008 11:02 PM |
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You can have two Confusions in one town? Explain to me again why the probabilities are 0.25 / 0.5?
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Asheera
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posted November 07, 2008 11:02 PM |
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Yes but why? It's perfectly clear that for ONE town we have a 5/12 chance... why we can't apply the Soldier's Luck formula to get it to work for two towns?
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JollyJoker
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posted November 07, 2008 11:04 PM |
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Both .25 is 7/16, right?
Another thing. You don't "average" in probability math. You are mostly counting all possibilities. 
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Asheera
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posted November 07, 2008 11:05 PM |
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Quote:
You can have two Confusions in one town?
No, I meant that you can have two confusions in TWO towns.
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Gnoll_Mage
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Supreme Hero
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posted November 07, 2008 11:16 PM |
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Sorry, 7/16. That gives me your answer. But that doesn't explain why my first one was different.
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