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| Thread: Singularity |  This thread is pages long: 1 2 3 4 5 · «PREV |
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frostysh
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posted September 01, 2016 09:33 AM |
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Interesting thread. but I think the imagination of this RAY KURZWEIL, sometimes going too far...
But I think:
1) The evolution of the large amount of peoples on the Earth can be described in the terms of somekind of the self-evolve System with good approximation level.
2) But to make a good prediction into the future, this is obviously the goal of most of such theories, you need a hell lot very smart guys and advanced equipment.
3) No one moron will allow to such dangerous technologies as AI is to spread through society like a fire... This is just a stupid.
i.e. The technology of "mini Nuclear-Syntheses Power Plant for each house" - this is a very cool, the all peoples will have a powerful energy source for their goods, but someone will make a weapon with help of it and then this someone will blows up the entire city to the ground, this will be not so cool anymore . . .
4) Making the something like AI without a real human brains has been drowned in the wire network  , I think it a difficult thing. The Nature - The Quantum nature of things, will make a some restrictions there, IMHO.
5) About political dualism and warfare - , IMHO nonsense, but to be more preciously a scenario to the Sci-Fi movie.
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Homer171
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posted September 01, 2016 01:11 PM |
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Don't you mean hell of a lot samrt guys?
Little necromancy over here btw, corpse is deceased 7 years ago dude.
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Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed. The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force.
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frostysh
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posted September 01, 2016 07:49 PM |
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Edited by frostysh at 19:50, 01 Sep 2016.
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Homer171 said:
Don't you mean hell of a lot samrt guys?
Little necromancy over here btw, corpse is deceased 7 years ago dude.
Yeas, I mean a hell lot amount, usually well isolated from the mainstream society (to avoid some disadvantages), well educated, and in general a very smart guys.
Necromancy? Do you type about the thread where I have made a post? I do not understand, why I need to create a new thread with the same field discussed, when I can just make a post in the some old thread that is already exist?
Do you think after 7 years passed the Human Society on the Earth has been changed so drastically that it cannot be anymore approximately described as a self-evolving system anymore? 
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Miru
Supreme Hero
A leaf in the river of time
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posted September 01, 2016 08:03 PM |
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Nah. We fell off Moore's law in 2012. We are reaching the limits of technology in certain ways. Things will continue to develop, but not at the pace that we have had.
Also simulating a brain in a computer doesn't really work. Neural Network software is inherently different from a human, for example they don't have emotional or spontaneous behavior. I don't think AI will be making that kind of progress. Simple things like voice and face recognition, driving and holding a conversation are extraordinarily difficult for a machine. I think that those three problems will be solved in the next decade but I don't think we will have machines thinking of new ideas in the foreseeable future.
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frostysh
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posted September 01, 2016 08:30 PM |
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Edited by frostysh at 20:32, 01 Sep 2016.
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Miru -
Miru said:
Nah. We fell off Moore's law in 2012. We are reaching the limits of technology in certain ways. Things will continue to develop, but not at the pace that we have had.
The direct applying of the simple law that after some time some certain amount of something will double itself to the such complicated as bloody hell itself thing like an entire Human Society on the Earth is, I think this is a not good idea if you want to make a good aproximating of how things will going on in the future. . .
I am not against simplification, but I think in this case, it will too much.
Tommorow someone can make a public article of "How to make a Teleporter" and then Human Societ will colonize the Mars fast as hell, and then the Hurricane of the innovation and catastrophic Social Revolution will come.
Or perhaps, we will stain and the almost Zero innovation for a frigging 100 tears, who is know about?
Or maybe will be something in the middle. I do not know. But this is an interesting. 
Miru said:
Also simulating a brain in a computer doesn't really work. Neural Network software is inherently different from a human, for example they don't have emotional or spontaneous behavior. I don't think AI will be making that kind of progress. Simple things like voice and face recognition, driving and holding a conversation are extraordinarily difficult for a machine. I think that those three problems will be solved in the next decade but I don't think we will have machines thinking of new ideas in the foreseeable future.
In example:
My emotions and feelings before I am actually can feelings it , it is just a complicated as hell sequence of the Neuron (and information encoded there) stuff, Chemical drugs like substance stuff, and so on.
I mean what do wee need for ii? The proper Hardware (neuron-like level of physical AI stuff), and the proper Software (the human Mind experience trough the life like level of AI software stuff).
I think somewhere, somehow, by someone, such thing will be gathered in the one place, in the one "device"...
P.S. Me feels a very sleepy (I am almost shutting off), so I can make a many spelling mistakes. 
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OhforfSake
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posted September 01, 2016 09:36 PM |
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Miru said:
Nah. We fell off Moore's law in 2012. We are reaching the limits of technology in certain ways.
People who say we've reached the limit tend to be wrong in my experience.  Anyway didn't it change to a doubling every 2.5-3 years now in stead of every other year? A big difference, but still an exponential growth so the acceleration is still huge.
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Miru
Supreme Hero
A leaf in the river of time
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posted September 01, 2016 09:59 PM |
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Two things:
The behavior of a Neuron in Neural Network software is inherently different from the behavior of a biological Neuron. We have no good way to simulate a biological neuron, which shouldn't come as a surprise because we don't know how biological neurons work. In fact we don't even know how anti depressants such as SSRIs work, its just speculation based on observation.
And we are reaching physical limits. A wire on a processor can only be so small before electrons quantum tunnel from one line to the next. We've done some tricky things like coating them in Tantalum which help. There is also problems with speed of light delays on anything larger than a few inches so we cant just make a giant computer that runs synchronously. Our new switch to 3D architecture is going to help a lot but there is a fastest possible processor. I don't know what, maybe 50Ghz but we're having a lot of trouble getting past 3GHz. It used to be as the decades went by we would move up scientific prefixes on our processing power (KHz, MHz, GHz) but I bet there will never be a THz processor.
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OhforfSake
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posted September 02, 2016 12:24 AM |
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Well when it comes to speed, quantum computing could potentially reduce the speed of operations to the square root of what traditional computers can do.
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Homer171
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Supreme Hero
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posted September 02, 2016 12:42 AM |
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Miru said:
...(KHz, MHz, GHz) but I bet there will never be a THz processor.
Pfft.. Same we think about hard-drives and all others. True, the next marginal is harder to reach as you get more zero's at end, but again new invention that changes how we approach this, will deffinetly come in future. Maybe, not right away but someday THz is reality what my kids can enjoy
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Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed. The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force.
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frostysh
Bad-mannered
Famous Hero
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posted September 02, 2016 06:14 AM |
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Miru -
Miru said:
The behavior of a Neuron in Neural Network software is inherently different from the behavior of a biological Neuron. We have no good way to simulate a biological neuron, which shouldn't come as a surprise because we don't know how biological neurons work. In fact we don't even know how anti depressants such as SSRIs work, its just speculation based on observation.
Correction: We have no good way to simulate a biological neuron, yet.
Shorty time ago, peoples have no idea how to simulate the Eye of human, now they can create something near, they can create a simulation of the human arms and legs, The Brain if far more complicated, but the DNA was a very complicated too, and so what? The DNA of the many animals for now is ~100% discovered.
With modern Microscopes, with Modern Quantum stuff, the Scientist can observe even the single Atom! - This is only measure of time until mechanism of the how Neuron-Networks in the Human Brain works, will be discovered.
Miru said:
And we are reaching physical limits. A wire on a processor can only be so small before electrons quantum tunnel from one line to the next. We've done some tricky things like coating them in Tantalum which help. There is also problems with speed of light delays on anything larger than a few inches so we cant just make a giant computer that runs synchronously. Our new switch to 3D architecture is going to help a lot but there is a fastest possible processor. I don't know what, maybe 50Ghz but we're having a lot of trouble getting past 3GHz. It used to be as the decades went by we would move up scientific prefixes on our processing power (KHz, MHz, GHz) but I bet there will never be a THz processor.
The Answer is laid on the field of the Quantum Entanglement it is IMHO.,
Quote:
Top picture: A nuclear (red) and an electron (blue) belonging to a phosphorus atom. First, a superposition state, 0 1 is created in the nucleus. Then, the electron is rotated in a way that depends on the nucleus’ orientation. This results in the entangled state 00 11, which represents a unique quantum computer code (bottom picture)Tony Melov / UNSW
Quantum computing breakthrough: Engineers manage to write quantum code to silicon chip
. - Delay , almost no delay! Speed of light limit - what you are talking about . The size - anything that you can entangle - Amazing possibilities it is, indeed!
As I said, not so simple, but very likely for someone a very lucky and with a very huge possibilities and equipment to perform such technological jump
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