
Thread: Probability skills and Soldier's Luck  

rainalcar
Promising
Famous Hero
Heroji su zakon

posted September 08, 2006 01:54 PM 


Probability skills and Soldier's Luck
This post is meant to clarify all the aspects of certain, "probability" skills, and the basics of the ability Soldier's Luck.
1. Soldier's Luck works only with Shield Bash, Warding Arrow, Blind, Fear, Whip Strike, Deadly Strike. No other, skill, ability, whatsoever, is in any way influenced by it.
2. Soldier's Luck works in a way that it double chek's the activation of the above mentioned skills. Therefore, it can be shown that the total chance of activation can be calculated as 1(1P)^2 where P is the probability of activation without the Soldier's Luck skill. The only exception to this is the skill Warding Arrow which has the probability
1(1P)^4 (because two arrows are fired).
3. The probabilites of the above mentioned skills are calculated always the same, and they are a function of two variables: HP's of the attacker, and HP's of the defender. There are two conditions on the calculation:
a) if HPattacker > HPdefender > P = 25 + 3*HPattacker/HPdefender
b) if HPattacker <= HPdefender > P = 25  3*HPattacker/HPdefender
Things that are also always the same no matter the skill above mentioned are:
...The probability's codomain is always [5%, 75%]
...Both artifacts and skills are calculated in and affect the total HP's when probability is calculated.
4. What DOES change is that by some skills the HPdefender is taken before the attack, and by other after the attack:
a)HPdefender is taken AFTER with skills Fear Attack, Blind, Whip Strike
b)HP defender is taken BEFORE with skills Shield Bash, Warding Arrow.
Because of this fact, skills under a) have a higher chance of activation because they operate with a less HPdefender variable.
Example:
12 Shadow Matriarchs attack 4 Emerald Dragons.
Shadow Matriarchs have 12*90=1080, and Emeralds 4*200=800 HP's.
Whip Strike activates AFTER the damage is calculated; in average 12*22*20/(20+2520)*0,5=105 damage. Therefore:
P=25+3*1080/(800105)=29,65%.
With Soldier's Luck:
P'=1(1P)^2=50,51%


Maurice
Hero of Order
Part of the furniture

posted September 08, 2006 03:58 PM 

Edited by Maurice at 16:01, 08 Sep 2006.

Quote: The only exception to this is the skill Warding Arrow which has the probability
1(1P)^4 (because two arrows are fired).
Just to clarify, the chance 1(1P)^4 is the chance that at least one (so possibly also both) arrow triggers the roll.
If you want to work it out in specifics, the chance that both attacks will trigger is (1(1P)^2)^2) while the chance that only one of the attacks (be it the first one or the second one) triggers is 2*(1(1P)^2)(1P)^2. The multiplication by two is the number of permutations that are possible to have one attack trigger while the other one doesn't.
Edit: It gets more complex, though, when the second arrow is calculated with the resulting lower HPs due to the damage from the first arrow. In that case, you cannot combine the two attacks as easily to calculate the total chance that Soldier's Luck will increase the odds of a special ability trigger.


Doomforge
Admirable
Undefeatable Hero
Retired Hero

posted September 08, 2006 04:04 PM 


wow, that's one complicated formula


Maurice
Hero of Order
Part of the furniture

posted September 08, 2006 04:12 PM 


Quote: wow, that's one complicated formula
Nah, this is just basic statistics ... you haven't seen complex yet


Betruger
Known Hero
empowered mind

posted September 08, 2006 04:33 PM 


So that means that necromancers have absolutely no use of Soldiers Luck perk. Damn. I thought It affected also incorporals ability to avoid taking dmg.


alcibiades
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
of Gold Dragons

posted September 08, 2006 05:27 PM 


Quote:
Quote: wow, that's one complicated formula
Nah, this is just basic statistics ... you haven't seen complex yet
Death to statistics! I hate statistics.


Rainalcar
Promising
Famous Hero
Heroji su zakon

posted September 08, 2006 09:37 PM 


Quote:
Edit: It gets more complex, though, when the second arrow is calculated with the resulting lower HPs due to the damage from the first arrow. In that case, you cannot combine the two attacks as easily to calculate the total chance that Soldier's Luck will increase the odds of a special ability trigger.
This is am not certain: I tend to think that for Warding Arrow probability is calculated before the hit for BOTH arrows. So, both arrows, no matter the first has killed some of the opponnent's HP's, operate with the same HPdefender variable, and that is the HP's before the first arrow hit.
____________


Elvin
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
What if Elvin was female?

posted September 08, 2006 10:12 PM 


So incorporeal is not improved at all...Oh well fantom forces can't become more powerful without a roar of protest
____________
A sea without waves is no longer a sea. It's a pond.


Sanyu
Known Hero

posted September 09, 2006 04:44 AM 


I've just calculated something funny...
If 1 nightmare attacks 1 familiar, the chance is 58%. for fear.
With soldier's luck, it would be 116% (?)


PhoenixReborn
Promising
Legendary Hero
Unicorn

posted September 09, 2006 06:52 AM 


So something isn't right here. For a necromancer, soldier's luck will affect none of the creatures. It also doesn't contribute to any other skills as a prerequisite. It's a waste for a necromancer to have it.
____________
Bask in the light of my glorious shining unicorn.


Maurice
Hero of Order
Part of the furniture

posted September 09, 2006 09:19 AM 


Quote: I've just calculated something funny...
If 1 nightmare attacks 1 familiar, the chance is 58%. for fear.
With soldier's luck, it would be 116% (?)
No, the chance of an ability to trigger never goes higher than 75% (see initial post). So the benefit of Soldier's Luck in this case is just another 17% chance. Even so, if 1 nightmare attacks 1 familair, I think the familair loses one of its three dimensions , it just doesn't have the HP needed to live through the damage of the nightmare to begin with.


rainalcar
Promising
Famous Hero
Heroji su zakon

posted September 09, 2006 02:14 PM 


Quote: So something isn't right here. For a necromancer, soldier's luck will affect none of the creatures. It also doesn't contribute to any other skills as a prerequisite. It's a waste for a necromancer to have it.
As it stand right now neither Incorporeal, nor Magic Mirror, Hellfire or anything else than above mentioned works with Soldier's Luck. Therefore, the skill is useless for Academy and Necropolis, near useless for Dungeon. The only situations I would use it is with Inferno, if relying on Nightmares, Haven if playing Laszlo, and pretty much always with Sylvan.
____________


Sanyu
Known Hero

posted September 10, 2006 06:09 AM 


Somehow the triggering probabilities of whip strike are much lesser
than that of nightmare's fear attack.


