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Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
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posted November 03, 2024 04:11 AM |
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Really?
"everyone knows that I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it, because it is up to the states to decide based on the will of their voters (the will of the people!)"
D. Trump, October 2, 2024
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Pol
Known Hero
.^.
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posted November 03, 2024 11:57 AM |
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Salamandre said:
Really?
"everyone knows that I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it, because it is up to the states to decide based on the will of their voters (the will of the people!)"
D. Trump, October 2, 2024
Really. But if you believe on what he promptly says, instead in what he's doing and did in his last presidental period, it's your choice.
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted November 03, 2024 12:01 PM |
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Who would believe a word of what Donald Trump says?
Anyway, the trouble here is the Supreme Court and the way it has been built. When Judge Scalia (a Reagan/Republican judge) retired in February 2016 (at a ratio of 5 Rep/4 Dem Judges), it should have been Obama nominating one (which would have inversed it to 4/5), Republican dominated Congress said no, not enough time till election (November, so NINE months), so Trump got to nominate one, keeping it at 5/4. Then Judge Kenndy retired 2018, so Trump nominated another one (for a Rep, keeping it at 5/4 But then Judge Ginsburg, a Democrat nominee died September 18th 2020 - and in October, a few weeks before the elections, Trump passed his third candidate with the congress, making it 6/3 Republican - 3 cronies of Trump amongst them.
And THAT is actually the center of the problem, if Trump gets president again, because even under Biden, the Supreme Court judged AGAINST a general abortion right for women (as opposed to the existing situation) and it judged PRO-Trump with a view on him being able to do anything he wants, unpunished when he does this in his capacity as a president.
So the REAL problem is that Trump, with the backing of 3 personal cronies and a further 3 Republican supreme judges will be able to do more or less anything he wants.
See, he doesn't actually need to openly support a federal abortion ban. A simple lawsuit by anyone going eventually to the supreme court will be enough, because the judges MIGHT decide that "protection of life" is a constitutional thing - and the next day in the whole of USA there might be a law like the one that Texas now has - you must not abort when you can detect the heartbeat of a fetus.
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Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
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posted November 03, 2024 01:18 PM |
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You two keep making up things. What You may think he Might do in the future is irrelevant.
Pol said:
instead in what he's doing and did in his last presidental period, it's your choice.
In 2017 the House passed the 20 week abortion ban, the Senate didn't vote so it isn't in use. 20 weeks means 5 months pregnancy. Then the fact that about 13 states ban abortion isn't Trump's work, at all. They ban it right now too, they banned it under Obama too, and what Biden and Kamala did to overcome? ZZzzz... nada.
In 2015, by the end of Obama's term, 638 169 abortions were reported in USA. In 2020, by the end of Trump's term, 930 160 were reported. I don't see any background for claiming Trump went nuts on abortion. Find something else ?
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted November 03, 2024 01:22 PM |
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Salamandre said:
You two keep making up things. What You may think he Might do in the future is irrelevant.
Reasonable people give their vote to people according to what they think people will likely do when they are indeed elected, because that's after all why you elect them - you hope they'll do (or don't do) this or that, based on your convictions.
Of course there are others who give their vote because of the sex of a person. Or their skin color. Or their entertainment value. Or maybe because they tell fine stories.
You give YOUR vote to people because ...?
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Salamandre
Admirable
Omnipresent Hero
Wog refugee
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posted November 03, 2024 02:56 PM |
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Sure, but Trump WAS already in office - that's the thing, and I recall you in 2016 having exactly same predictions, like Hitler arrives and the world will end.
Then nothing notable happened for 4 years, nobody was send to concentration camps, the press was still free to lie about him and everything else 24H/24, the army didn't invade anyone, the black and brown people didn't see their rights shrink, the millions of illegals still could jump over the line and women still could butcher their offspring without being annoyed for a second. OK.
So yes, I think it is reasonable to question your predictions, as none ever realizes.
I mean, one thing Hitler would do for sure, is handcuff everyone criticizing him, and as I recall, there were never in US history a press more critical and aggressive to the president, than during ... Trump. Ironically, the only ones losing their job, were those praising Trump, i.e. T. Carlson. Then some comedians and scholars also saw their contracts cancelled because having voiced for Trump, too. Doesn't look to me like an iron handed 4th Reich, but the usual hurl-burly, which is the left being unable to tolerate anybody not going on its way.
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted November 03, 2024 06:00 PM |
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Your memory is faulty. In 2016, before the elections, I said, that Trump is a criminal, a mysogynist and a liar, and I also said, I couldn't understand why anyone would vote for him, and then some people explained to me, that he was an attractive proposition as someone not being a professional politician and an outsider (who would destroy the red tape and the corruption and whatnot).
I predicted he'd be a desaster in office - which he was. If you believe the people who worked with him while he was in office. No clue about anything, playing golf the whole time, alienating every ally (and of course even more so when they were female), the list is endless, but the shenanigansafter the election 2020 are enough. He managed to divide the US (even further), which can be ojjectively measured when you compare things like common ground between reps and dems in congress and so on.
His second term will be infinitely worse, now, that he has the supreme court in his pocket - that alone is reason enough, NOT to elect him (again). Do you really think a guy like Trump, the egostist narcissist would pass up the opportunity to do whatever he likes, now that he has free reign as long as he does everything under the guise of "necessary presidential action"? He CAN rule like Putin, if he wants to, and he WILL do it, if given the chance.
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Blizzard
Known Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted November 03, 2024 08:34 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 20:39, 03 Nov 2024.
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purerogue3
Known Hero
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posted November 03, 2024 11:21 PM |
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They killed the freaking squirrel..
fetus: no biggie
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Rimgrabber
Promising
Famous Hero
Voice in Gelu's Head
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posted November 04, 2024 03:34 AM |
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Harris is probably going to win judging by the early voting and other indicators like who is registering to vote, voter enthusism etc. I think it's also important to note that while the polls heavily underestimated Trump the last two times, it's entirely possible that they're underestimating Harris this time.
The likely voter sampling rarely accounts for newly registered voters (who vote at higher rates than people who have already voted in the past) and there's also a high likelihood that polls are underestimating Harris's support among white women. One of the top searches trending on Google after the debate was "Can my husband see who I vote for" and we already see pretty consistently in polls that not only is the gender divide widening, it is widening the most among white women, a key demographic that supported Trump the last two elections.
Finally, the poll that game out yesterday showing Harris up 3 points in Iowa (a red state nowadays) is from a pollster that has never been more than 5 points off in their final poll. Don't get me wrong, Harris probably isn't going to win Iowa, but the fact that a state that Trump won by 12 point in 2020 is almost competitive now is a huge warning sign for the other midwestern states Trump has to win in order to get the electoral college.
Overall, here's how I'd rate the swing states right now based on the data I've seen, polls, and my gut feeling.
Solid D - Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota
Likely D - Wisconsin, Michigan
Lean D - Pennsylvania, Nevada
Lean R - North Carolina, Georgia
Likely R - Arizona, Iowa, Florida
Solid R - Texas, Ohio
If my analysis is correct, Harris wins with 276 electoral votes. A narrow victory, but a victory nonetheless.
North Carolina is the one I am the least confident in my assesment of because there's no question the democrat is going to win the governorship after the republican's "black nazi" scandal and Trump enthusiastically endorsed him for the office.
Last week I would have said Florida Solid R but now I think it's a potential wildcard since the abortion question on the ballot is almost certainly going to drive up democrat turnout and Trump's campaign seriously pissed off Puerto Ricans with the whole "island of garbage" thing.
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purerogue3
Known Hero
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posted November 04, 2024 05:35 AM |
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The vocal Kamala crowd is way over-represented online.
Old guys are going to show up in droves cuz she is just so inviting of the spite.
I am not looking forward to her making any regular person cringe for the next 20 yrs.
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Pol
Known Hero
.^.
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posted November 04, 2024 05:49 PM |
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@Salamandre
Why? My point stays.
Trump named judges of Supreme Court, before he left the throne. And the new judges overturned Roe v. Wade precedent, removing protection for interruption on federal level, returning it under control of states. Which allowed to throw a mess from some anti-women republicans.
He did know, what will happen but put it on that trajectory anyway.
Not sure, why you put "nada" in. Neither Biden nor Kamala can do anything about it, as replacing judges of Supreme Court is delicate thing, you can't just come and swap them.
Quote:
“Today, the Republican-controlled Supreme Court has achieved the GOP’s dark and extreme goal of ripping away women’s right to make their own reproductive health decisions,” she said in a statement after the ruling. “Because of Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell, the Republican Party and their supermajority on the Supreme Court, American women today have less freedom than their mothers.”
Joe Biden June 24, 2022
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-wipes-away-constitutional-guarantee-abortion-rights-over-rcna18718
Anyway your escapism is fabulous. Did you visited the libraries anyway, if you don't believe me, that Trump wanted to be a president for the last 40 years at least. Or you will be continuing it to deny it for the sake of being opportunist, without effort?
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Blizzard
Known Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted November 04, 2024 06:47 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 19:07, 04 Nov 2024.
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@Rim:
She could very well pull off the win, but again, the gender divide nationally is not wider with Harris/Trump than it was with Biden/Trump in 2020, at least according to the polls.
Now, in a more ideal setting where there wasn't a pervert/criminal running for the highest office in the country/planet, and if a conservative like Haley was the GOP candidate instead of Trump, then that gender divide might narrow, but right now it is NOT wider than it was 4 years ago. What that indicates is that it is more about women specifically disliking/hating Trump than it is about them explicitly liking the other candidate. Having Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate has not created a surge of female voters compared to Biden from 4 year ago (again, according to the polls right now; we are all waiting to see what the actual election results are).
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted November 04, 2024 07:07 PM |
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Lol, it's a bit different: there is a MALE surge to Trump (from Dem voters), and a FEMALE swap of white women to Harris (from Trump20).
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Blizzard
Known Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted November 04, 2024 07:09 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 19:10, 04 Nov 2024.
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Where are you reading this at? What I have read is that Harris is not polling better among women than Biden was 4 years ago.
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted November 04, 2024 07:18 PM |
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I've read that in a German article a few days ago. It may well be, that she loses with others, for example more orthodox groups. As the surge of Dem men switching from Biden to Trump, while at the same time Reps witching from Trump to Harris.
I also read that Harris has a clear lead with female voters and Trump has a clear lead with male voters.
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Pol
Known Hero
.^.
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posted November 04, 2024 09:31 PM |
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Yep, and to complete the irony. Many young black males vote for Trump, as voting for woman is seen as too low by them.
However more women votes for Kamala, than for Donald, for obvious reasons.
Palestinians are trying to vote for Donald too, although he's friend of Netanjahu, which is not true neither for Biden or Kamala. But the ways of the men are inscrutable.
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted November 04, 2024 10:15 PM |
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I just read an interview with Allan Lichtman - who predicts a Harris victory which is a flicker of hope. 
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Rimgrabber
Promising
Famous Hero
Voice in Gelu's Head
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posted November 04, 2024 11:31 PM |
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Stein (who I am voting for) is actually leading among Arab and Muslim voters. She has been since June, before Kamala Harris even got in the race.
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purerogue3
Known Hero
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posted November 05, 2024 12:08 AM |
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gtso identity politics only
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This thread is pages long: 
