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| Thread: US General Election 2024 Predictions | |
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Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted September 26, 2024 11:32 PM |
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Poll Question:
US General Election 2024 Predictions
Okay gentleman and non-existent ladies. Time to make your prediction! The election is now only several weeks away. I'm not including the obscure possibility of a tie, although that is technically possible.
Here is a really fun interactive map for the election. The swing states where the polls are currently within the margin of error are in gray:
https://www.270towin.com/
It would actually be kind of fun to bet real money for this, but oh well.
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Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted September 26, 2024 11:38 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 23:44, 26 Sep 2024.
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^ That is my prediction.
For the swing states:
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada are all slightly in favor of Harris.
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are slightly in favor of Trump.
End result:
Harris-Walz 276
Trump-Vance 262
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Blizzard
Adventuring Hero
Where the hell is my driveway?
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posted September 27, 2024 03:44 PM |
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Okay, this thread is mostly about placing bets, but I'll just add that one thing Trump might have going for him come November is that there might be significant numbers of people in the country who say one thing during a poll and then do something else when they vote. This is what happened in 2016. Some of the polling in 2016 landed outside of the margin of error because not everybody was being honest when they did the poll. Trump was somewhat of a dark horse candidate and not everybody wanted to admit they were voting for him.
Will that be the case in 2024? Probably less so, because Trump is now seasoned, but it could still affect the election if people are shy and don't want to admit who they're voting for. There are moderates who will vote Trump but will also be shy about it.
If the polls do hold up, it's looking pretty solidly in Harris' favor. She doesn't need to win all of the swing states, but it will be hard for her to win without Pennsylvania because that would mean she has to take the other Great Lake states AND Arizona AND North Carolina to cross the finish line, and that is highly unlikely.
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Bytebandit
Promising
Famous Hero
Soul Merchant
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posted September 27, 2024 07:20 PM |
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I think the political map you displayed is very accurate. However, many other factors, recently are already changing this landscape.
For one, let's look at Arizona. Recently, it was posted somewhere on MSN that with Taylor Swifts' announcement to support Harris and the "Get-Out-The-Vote" program launched just last week, 116,000 newly registered voters have signed up there. Sort of dampens the Republican stronghold in Arizona, maybe.
Second. The recent fallout of Lt. Governor Robinson from North Carolina should impact the race there as well. People from N.C. are very conservative when Porn sites and Nazi talk are in play. And tRump still endorses him or is playing ignorant about Robinson. Either choice with Trump is a bad one for him.
I won't even mention about Gen Z, Millennials, Most Women, Black Americans, Asian Americans, Latino Americans, Real GOP leaders, The Top 100 CEO's and Top CFO's. That possibly closes the gap for fringe voters to a narrow distinction.
I always considered Dick Cheney too nuch of a "Super Hawk" and for him to back Harris just blows me away. I never saw that coming from an Ultra Conservative Republican, ever! Dick Cheney was George W. Bush's' Vice President, btw.
More State Electoral upheavals could show up in the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned.
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted September 27, 2024 08:33 PM |
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I fully expect Trump to win this since in the US you can win even if you don't have the majority of the votes plus any system in which the result is determined beforehand no matter the candiate for about 90% of the states is proof that something is wrong. You could nominate anyone and they would still vote blue here and red there.
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Bytebandit
Promising
Famous Hero
Soul Merchant
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posted September 27, 2024 09:31 PM |
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The best spokesperson for Harris is tRump himself. Debate-anyone see it?
And, I am a Republican who doesn't buy in with anything that he says because I lived through his administration in 2016 to 2020. Tarriffs, something he seems intent on doing, are inflation inducing policies. Any economist will tell you that. It didn't work too well before WWI started. Under tRump, what costs a dollar now, will cost you 1.67 or so.
All overcosts due to Tarriffs are systematically passed on to the consumer. It's better to get the Capital Gains Tax adjusted from the 25% it's at now, or around that number, up to 28%. (And it's less than the 38% Biden wanted) That does cover all the costly programs Harris wants to instill. And major corporations are willing to go along with her proposals. Investment from the Upper Class insures more revenue to their pockets by doing this. And they know it.
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted September 27, 2024 10:21 PM |
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That's all nice and well, but it was already OBVIOUS in 2016 that Trump was anything but president material. If it worked then ... you know.
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