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JollyJoker
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Undefeatable Hero
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posted March 17, 2025 10:50 AM |
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The same as Germany had with Chechoslovakia.
And with Trump helping him - and more or less openly, I might add -, he'll reach it. A big chunk now, the rest later, when it's been exploited by the US.
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Salamandre
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Wog refugee
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posted March 17, 2025 11:16 AM |
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If you were in Trump's place, what would you do?
Sanctions : not working as expected, Russia is recovering
Military support : working in the sense of slowing Russia, but man power is the problem and Russia didn't even mobilize twice
Continue insulting Putin ? Biden did that for 4 years, where did it go
Send military man power will work but : possible 3rd world war, mutual destruction
What else you have in mind, realistically I mean.
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Era II mods and utilities
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Ghost
Undefeatable Hero
Therefore I am
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posted March 17, 2025 11:31 AM |
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700k Russian troops in Ukraine more than 2022 year.. Russian soldier gets €2000-3000 per month, and in about new 1500 tanks and 5700 armored vehicles..
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JollyJoker
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
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posted March 17, 2025 02:52 PM |
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Salamandre said:
If you were in Trump's place, what would you do?
I wouldn't throw Ukraine to the lions in exchange for some mineral riches, that's for sure. I also wouldn't threaten NATO partners with war, because that will far more likely lead to WW III than continued resistance in Ukraine. I also wouldn't start a trade war with the rest of the world based on the absurd idea that the tariff income will allow abolishing the income tax again, like it was a century ago, making the rich richer and the poor poorer, and I wouldn't delete war heroes from the Arlington websites nor threaten to deport everyone protesting openly against Trump's policies, and I certainly wouldn't defund universities - or threaten to, if they don't make sure their students shut the hell up.
But you knew my opinion on Trump.
Now, no "peace solution satisfying Putin will satisfy the rest of Europe, that whould be clear by now, because Europe has no good reason to believe that Putin will stop. You know that we completely disagree on this war - in my view the reason isn't NATO or whatever. The reason is quite probably that Russia lost its Ukrainian puppet regime in 2014 and simply feared to lose access to the Black Sea, if ties with Russia were severed and instead Ukraine would become tied to the EU (which might later lead to NATO membership and then at the latest Russia would have been out of options once Ukraine decided to stop Russian use of Crimea).
However, the general situation NOW is, that Russia has embraced war economy; their economy is now based on armament industry. It's debt-driven. If the war ends - how is Russia to go back? Keep in mind that with all the dept-driven armament industry, which brought full employment for the population, Germany had no other choice, economically, than war, once aa certain threshold was reached. A mere "peace" won't gain anything at all, for no one. Russia will have to normalize their industry to peace-time production, and for that they will need help from the world - or continue with war, otherwise they will collapse economically.
The Arabs alone could have brought Russia to their Knees (and can still do so) by decreaing the price of oil and gas. That would ruin Russia.
Bottom line is, if I was Trump, I would try and get the oil-producing states to drop the oil-price to put pressure on Putin to cut the crap and really negotiate instead of presenting maximum demands.
And I certainly wouldn't have weakened the Ukrainian position beforehand, that was inexcusable (and an unmistakable tell).
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Ghost
Undefeatable Hero
Therefore I am
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posted March 17, 2025 03:05 PM |
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A very good common sense.. Quite normal! Nothing new.. 
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Zombiec97
Tavern Dweller
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posted March 17, 2025 03:43 PM |
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Beautifully--put!
Blizzard said:
purerogue3 said:
JJ is a communist
Nah, JJ is a national socialist. Get it right.
Valeriy is a communist.
I am freedom incarnate  All of you should be on your knees worshipping me right now.
Galaad is a male prostitute and a drunk.
Artu is a terrorist.
Sal is literally Count Dracula. He even admitted that he doesn't sleep. I mean wtf.
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Salamandre
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posted March 17, 2025 04:00 PM |
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Only a short sentence there answers to my question, the others are "I don't like Trump", we know that.
What is in, for the Arabs, to go broke and lower oil prices ? Demand is higher than ever.
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purerogue3
Known Hero
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posted March 17, 2025 04:02 PM |
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Salamandre said:
If you were in Trump's place, what would you do?
Sanctions : not working as expected, Russia is recovering
Military support : working in the sense of slowing Russia, but man power is the problem and Russia didn't even mobilize twice
Continue insulting Putin ? Biden did that for 4 years, where did it go
Send military man power will work but : possible 3rd world war, mutual destruction
What else you have in mind, realistically I mean.
Was watching a clip on vietnam. then korean war.
The outcome of this has a not less chance to end much worse.
NK - allowed to develope Nukes
Vietnam - the better result, unified, full independence from China(+Russia), Us
So catastophe is not out os the question, if there were any adults to think about this (Putin, Trump ... noone (in order))
The West is not to be trusted on this, the elected leaders are children and have no responsibility
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JollyJoker
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posted March 17, 2025 04:47 PM |
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Salamandre said:
What is in, for the Arabs, to go broke and lower oil prices ? Demand is higher than ever.
The Arabs don't go broke when they lower oil prices. In fact oil prices are not high at present, and Russia is treading VERY carefully with the OPEC countries right now. What do you think why the whole thing is held in Saudi Arabia?
I'm QUITE sure Trump could offer A LOT to them - for example, a reasonable stance with a view on Israel, Gaza and a solution that would favor the founding of a Palestinian state, which actually most everyone wants. Israel NEEDS the US behind them, and without the backing of the USA the Netanjahu regime would have to manoeuver a lot more carefully.
So that's what the US could offer: full support for a lasting peace in the region by putting pressure on Netanjahu to behave and support the creation of a Palestinian state (with guarantees of the kind that is discussed for Ukraine).
Not THAT difficult to see.
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Blizzard
Known Hero
Urban Legend
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posted March 17, 2025 04:54 PM |
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Edited by Blizzard at 17:05, 17 Mar 2025.
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JollyJoker said:
The same as Germany had with Chechoslovakia.
And with Trump helping him - and more or less openly, I might add -, he'll reach it. A big chunk now, the rest later, when it's been exploited by the US.
And you know this how? You have a feeling? Because the media you watch told you so?
Where is the alternative solution if you don't like the US security guarantees in exchange for the rare earth mineral deal?
I'm assuming you think this is exploitative since Ukraine is backed into a corner right now. That sounds sensible (unlike your belief that Putin's Russia wants all of Ukraine), so offer something better.
Putin won't accept peace without driving a hard bargain. That is a fact
US won't put several hundred billion more into military aid or reconstruction without some kind of incentive. That is also a fact, hence the mineral deal. And guess what, if your country was pumping hundreds of billions into something across an ocean, you would feel differently about it also.
So where is the leadership from Europe JJ? That is a fair question and it should be easy to answer it. You don't like how things are unfolding but you don't have good alternatives. Just condemning Ukraine to several more years of open conflict. That isnt a solution. It's just letting somebody else's kids die for something.
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Ghost
Undefeatable Hero
Therefore I am
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posted March 17, 2025 05:00 PM |
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If Trump changes his mind again... Trump is Trump.. Your case is completely worthless.. We can see tomorrow..
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purerogue3
Known Hero
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posted March 17, 2025 05:09 PM |
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The danger in now the 'most likely scenario' of a frozen=settled conflict in which the remaining parts of Ukraine are hard anti-russian nationalists vs Russia+.
The first thing they are going to do, covertly or not, is develope nuclear.
They will be Israel with a lot of land, a bigger, 10k+warhead enemy.
They will be hellbent on it.
Who will stop them?
I hope you see it would not be a stable, acceptable equilibrium where their use is a low %chance, because Ukraine- is so much smaller than Russia+.
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Ghost
Undefeatable Hero
Therefore I am
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posted March 17, 2025 05:17 PM |
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Wrong! USA no longer super power, you can be sure.. In the Bible said that the God takes super power out, and gives enemy attacks as far as Israel.. I interested in common sense, don't copy from the Bible..
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Salamandre
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posted March 17, 2025 05:25 PM |
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There is zero evidence that Saudis care about Gaza fate to such point, while they care a lot about normalizing relations with Israel, which is antagonistic to Palestine. Beside, US politics in that area always pushed for "never two states solution", their veto was constant. Doesn't look to me as a solid bargain. It would be a 180° political turn, just for Ukraine ?
Moreover, this idea that Russia is near collapse was the narrative since day 1. They said few months, then said next year, now they say war economy is going to cripple it (6% of GDP isn't war economy, far from it), but nobody knows when. At this point, I suspect the current narrative to be as false and utopian as first estimations.
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purerogue3
Known Hero
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posted March 17, 2025 05:29 PM |
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The only way a smaller state can exist next to a much larger state is either as a vassal or puppet. Give up some automony or enter proxy conflict. See Vietnam and Korea.
Finland choose a step into direction of conflict, when it choose to forget the magnamity of Soviet restraint at the end of the last conflict.
If it sounds like a threat, what does choosing Nato (guess you chose wrong) sound like to Russia? It sounds like, "Yes, I have signed up to the greater US army against Russia. I forgot I am a woman who does not inherently think about consequences"
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JollyJoker
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posted March 17, 2025 05:33 PM |
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Blizzard said:
JollyJoker said:
US won't put several hundred billion more into military aid or reconstruction without some kind of incentive. That is also a fact, hence the mineral deal. And guess what, if your country was pumping hundreds of billions into something across an ocean, you would feel differently about it also.
Well, guess what? EU as a whole pumped more help into Ukraine than the US. Trump is just being his egomaniacal self. The newest thing is that he considers Joe Biden's signatures as invalid. All of them.
If you read my posts above you'll know what I'd consider an alternative and I've been writing my opinion on Donald Trump since 2016. What is happening, not only supports my opinion, but goes a far cry further and you should actually be frightened about what currently happens in your country.
Your president has shot Ukraine in the back (and Europe as well). I already sketched a solution, although I'm not a politician. And it's still PUTIN who is responsible for the death and the destruction, no matter how desperately you try to rationalize what your so-called president does.
Trump is not even 2 months in office and already Europe and Canada is considering to stop buying F-35s and go for French and Swedish planes instead. Lockheed-Martin will probably be as happy about that as Tesla is at the moment about the new US tariffs and Elon Musk giving it a real go to become the most despised man on the planet - although he runs against strong competition.
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JollyJoker
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posted March 17, 2025 05:42 PM |
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Salamandre said:
There is zero evidence that Saudis care about Gaza fate to such point, while they care a lot about normalizing relations with Israel, which is antagonistic to Palestine. Beside, US politics in that area always pushed for "never two states solution", their veto was constant. Doesn't look to me as a solid bargain. It would be a 180° political turn, just for Ukraine ?
First, it's not about the Saudis alone, it's OPEC. Second, Saudis are trying to change the view the world has on them, which normalizing relations with Israel has been a part of, but Israel running amok in Gaza and attacking everyone and their dog in the process (Lebanon, for example) isn't really helping the cause.
US position has gradually changed with Biden and peace in the area is important and won't come when Israel considers Gaza as something to grab a piece of every year. Illegal settling isn't helping here.
You asked me what *I* would do in Trump's place, and I told you. You cannot argue with "US would never do it". Until Trump there have been a lot of things US would never do, but didn't take him long to try. Like threatening NATO members with war or with pulling out of NATO.
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purerogue3
Known Hero
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posted March 17, 2025 05:45 PM |
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Europe is fractious, which has always been it's nature -resposible for modernity as we know it.
But in between China and the US, would it not be better for it to rise as a cohesive block, providing a proverbial third leg to this unstable stool.
Perhaps suitably unironic, Liberal values are required for this.
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Salamandre
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posted March 17, 2025 05:50 PM |
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JollyJoker said:
You asked me what *I* would do in Trump's place, and I told you. You cannot argue with "US would never do it". Until Trump there have been a lot of things US would never do, but didn't take him long to try. Like threatening NATO members with war or with pulling out of NATO.
Of course I can, because I also added "realistically". So one can say, if I am US president, I would bomb the hell out of Russians, and of course they would lose. But is not realistic, never gonna happen.
Where Trump threatened NATO members with war ? This is what German press is pulling now?
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Blizzard
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posted March 17, 2025 05:54 PM |
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It is so obvious this is written by somebody who doesn't live in the US and doesn't have to deal with any of the consequences.
You want the US to "pressure" oil states to drop their oil prices, because you claim this will force Putin into a settlement after Russia starts losing out on a major source of revenue.
Can you see that backfiring JJ? Oh that's right: it's not your problem. I wonder why Biden didn't do this either? Strange.
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