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blizzard
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posted March 21, 2025 02:25 AM |
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Edited by blizzard at 03:57, 21 Mar 2025.
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Salamandre said:
Ok, so Ukraine can't win without massive man power supply, which won't happen, and on the other side, you don't want to pay for more weapons, because they won't change the fate. So what that leaves ?
If a peace settlement can be reached THEN the US can pay for lots of more weapons and help with reconstruction. Heavily militarize the country.
What l mean is funding a war where the goal doesn't appear to be achievable, because the human resources are lacking.
And where JJ is wrong is that as you go west in the country, the population becomes very much hostile towards Russia. So, in terms of Putin advancing and occupying the entire country, that is very difficult. It means a forever war for Russia even if they were to take Kyiv and install a satellite, and Putin is not a cartoon villain or an idiot. It would be much worse than Afghanistan for them in the 80s, even without the camel spiders attacking and eating tanks and such. So, a west/east split is a realistic goal.
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Salamandre
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posted March 21, 2025 03:48 AM |
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In 1991, Ukraine population was 52 million, today is below 30. When war will end, how many more will leave, given the post-war economical situation ?
More weapons will not solve the situation, the solution is diplomatic. Which means listen to each other, both. Those who hate Russia will disagree, their tune is don't talk ever to Russians. They don't care about Ukraine, it is just a toy they use to punch Russians, and when the toy breaks, they will find another one elsewhere.
Then there is one more thing. EU should not have followed Biden's warmonger politic. Russia is our close neighbor, on our continent, and will still be in 1000 years. That forces a different and visionary approach.
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artu
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posted March 21, 2025 09:47 AM |
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Edited by artu at 09:48, 21 Mar 2025.
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You are both thinking Ukraine as one entity. I think it will be shared, maybe only through power of influance at first, then maybe even with legal borders. The Eastern part will be tied to Russia and in return, Russia will go along with a EU or even Nato member Western Ukraine.
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JollyJoker
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posted March 21, 2025 12:22 PM |
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Let's get a couple of things straight.
First of all, 2014 had nothing to do with "USA". Ukraine had a pro-Russian president, but the Ukrainian Parliament had ratified a move to more economic collaboration with the EU (not the USA; EU and USA were at odds about Ukraine at the time). Russia pressured the Ukrainian Presnot to sign, and when he didn't sign the population had enough, ending with the Pres fleeing to Russia. Russia didn't acknowledge the new Ukrainian government - and seized Crimea and the Donbas proclaimng two new states.
That was simply an act of war. It doesn't matter whether there are Russians living there or not. I gave two examples, Czechoslovkia in 1938 and, hypothetically, Poland and Belarus (where a Polish minority lives in the former Polish territory, annexed by the USSR).
It's just not working as an argument. If Russians didn't like it there, they can always emigrate to Russia.
It was an excuse.
However, the case obviously wasn't closed. I mean, after 2014 there was no way for Ukraine (and no international thoughts of) to get back Crimea and Donbas from Russia. Ukraine didn't actually build an army with offensive power in the eight years up to 2022, like tons of artillery, tanks and aircraft. Still, Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine - so they must have had a goal that goes over and above the Donbas and Crimea. Otherwise it could have gone on, everyone being quite happy, except a couple Ukrainians.
What is currently happening, isn't going to impress on Russia that it might be better to revise the goals downwards. If anything, they will revise them upwards, since Trump wants peace no matter the price.
If Ukraine will be partioned, that doesn't mean there won't be any peace. There will always be Ukrainians who lost everything they had and loved and who wants to make the invaders suffer (the conflicts of the last 100 years have all taught us that, not to mention the IRA and the ETA), whether they are supported by foreign nations or not; you can get weapons and explosives on the free market as well. But for every act of terrorism, for each attack on a Russian institution, for each Russian life lost, Russia will invariably blame "the West", and whether that's true or not (and I don't doubt that there will be foreign money supporting this), they will take that as an excuse to just squash the rest. Russia will never agree to any "rest" becoming part of NATO, Russia will not even allow free elections or some such.
Won't happen. There won't be a ceasefire (lasting longer than a few hours) either, for which they will blame each other and Russia has a lot more control over the narrative.
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blizzard
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posted March 21, 2025 02:06 PM |
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About 40% of the federal budget on military spending, yeah? That is a massive percentage.
What does that do to Russia's economy in the long-term? The Baltics were once isolated from the rest of NATO. They aren't anymore; not since Sweden and Finland got in.
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artu
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posted March 21, 2025 02:14 PM |
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I dont think Russia is as ambitious as you happen to believe, JJ. Not in terms of realistic expectations or imperial ideals. Swallowing all of Ukraine is not part of their agenda in the foreseeable future.
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Salamandre
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posted March 21, 2025 02:35 PM |
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blizzard said:
About 40% of the federal budget on military spending, yeah? That is a massive percentage.
Nope, 40% increase of military spending (compared to 2021), not 40% of the federal budget. So now is at at 6,7%.
I was giggling when Macron lied with a straight face about this then no journalist corrected him. And now everyone is like oh Russia is spending half of GDP on military, crap again. Then you wonder why people are afraid.
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blizzard
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posted March 21, 2025 03:05 PM |
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Edited by blizzard at 15:24, 21 Mar 2025.
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@Sal:
40% of federal budget, not 40% of GDP. It is a massive percentage.
My point is: it's not a good prospect for any country to be spending that much, and Russia doesn't have many options for expansion into Europe. Russian forces removing buoys from rivers that mark boundaries between Estonia and Russia isn't an imminent threat.
The #1 hang-up for Ukraine's success in the war is that it needs more humans, and NATO countries cannot/will not provide that. Estonia has more human resources than it would ever know what to do with, because a Russian attack would trigger actual soldiers arriving.
What Russia needs is an off-ramp from its invasion of Ukraine that didn't go so great, but that also wasn't a total failure. Since negotiations are still in the early phase, people right now are making demands that will never actually happen. So, Putin asks that military aid to Ukraine permanently stops. That will never happen. Zelensky reaffirms that Crimea is a Ukrainian peninsula. That also isn't going to happen. You start off by making very steep demands, not realistic demands. That's how bargaining works.
And this is why Trump and Putin scare JJ so much, because he takes everything they say literally, as if they were being completely transparent all of the time. It's a fundamentalist interpretation of politics, and it makes everything a lot more scary.
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Ghost
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posted March 21, 2025 04:06 PM |
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JollyJoker
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posted March 21, 2025 04:52 PM |
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You guys are just closing your eyes and pray - but let's see:
1) I still wait on an answer what Putin invaded Ukraine for when they already control Crimea and Donbas since 2014 and Ukraine never stood a chance to claw that back, not even remotely. I mean, you just don't spend that much ressources on something just to make a point, right?
2) What would Putin GAIN with peace? Considering that the war COSTS money, but as yet GAINS none. As I said, when Germany attacked Poland they basically had no other choice because they had spent tons of money on build-up and you cannot do that for a long time. It's like you would spend money on erecting statues. Costs money, workers have a job, but the product is dead capital and of no use. You need to sell the stuff (provoking wars is good business) or conquer territory to plunder, err, exploit).
3) What's Trump's game here? For me it looks like he wants to bring Russia back somehow - quite possibly to tear them away from China, which won't happen. Objectively, Putin is starving him - Trump didn't get anything done except massively weakening Ukraine's position by forgoing a couple of possible demands right away and repeating Russian positions. Like, Zelensky being a dictator and all that nonsense. He isn't helping Ukraine at all, and it's fairly clear that his sole interest is getting some compensation out of Ukraine.
Anything else? What about the loss of Russia's foothold in Syria? Came about because they were unable to react due to Ukraine. They will want compensation for that as well. and
4) Why do you think Russia would be happy with less and go back on their demands? Because I actually don't see ANY interest in negotiating with Russia, but instead only an interest to play Trump. All demands are akin to a capitulation.
5) What you don't see is, that there has been no reason whatsoever to even attack Ukraine, except naked power politics. You can't really think that Russia would be fearing a sudden NATO attack on them.
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blizzard
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posted March 21, 2025 05:31 PM |
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Edited by blizzard at 17:44, 21 Mar 2025.
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Russia wanted Ukraine as a 2nd satellite beside Belarus and it didn't work out. Western governments rushed to supply military aid. Any prolonged occupation of Ukraine would be very difficult, because most of the country (not its far east) is strongly against Russia.
I'm sure that Trump would love to pull Russia away from China. Not likely to happen now that sanctions have been dished out. Even if they go down they could easily come back again in 2028 or whatever. USA can spin on a dime every 4 years. China stays the same. One party, one people. That is the appeal for Putin, since China manufactures stuff that Russia doesn't.
But mostly, he wants the REEs in Ukraine and he hates giving aid with nothing in exchange. That is why he froze federal aid abroad. Trump has hated giving stuff away his entire life, including when he was a registered Democrat. Some journalists paint him as erratic but he's really not that complicated.
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JollyJoker
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posted March 21, 2025 06:08 PM |
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Again, what would Putin gain with peace? Especially when we agree that Trump wants the REs and maybe the power plants? Why would he accept the losses , the altered industry production and let the US take what he didn't want to leave to the West in the first place?
That doesn't make ANY sense AT ALL. As long as Putin has a chance to get what he wants with military force - and thanks to Trump's strategic blunder he sees that - he has no reason whatsoever to stop the war.
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Ghost
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posted March 21, 2025 06:38 PM |
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Shoot Trump again.. An idiot Trump.. It means also Americans..
The EU will never give up.. So nation shouldn't be UN, but EU..
In many alternatives are existing..
If Trump wakes up from a nightmare, but I think Trump is a actor, so story continues..
Many depends on situation..
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blizzard
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posted March 21, 2025 06:50 PM |
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Edited by blizzard at 18:54, 21 Mar 2025.
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@JJ
Like I said, I believe that Putin believes in the idea of a forever war. Plan A was to make Ukraine a satellite and it didn't work. He overestimated the Russian military and underestimated Ukraine's ability to defend itself. It happens. It happened many times before. It will probably happen many in the future. The weaker team can put up a really hard fight if they've got the home field. A long-term occupation of Ukraine will be a blight for Russia, not an increase in power. I don't think Putin is too full of himself in order to not understand that. That is why I think a settlement could work. I don't think Russia's vast increase in military expenditures is part of a larger design. I think the special military operation (war) went worse than expected and so they needed to up the spending.
If we get to 2026 and nothing has developed as far as peace, then you can come back and brag about it to us. I think it is worth a shot.
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JollyJoker
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posted March 21, 2025 07:53 PM |
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Well, that initial misjudgement wasn't Putin's fault, but that of his Generals and advisors who simply told him what he wanted to hear. His mistake was to believe them.
He'll have been more circumvent after that and he will know what he wants. Russia has owned Ukraine since the end of the 18th century. They'll take gladly m ost of it - the valuable part - and send the population as refugees into the EU, resettling with Russians. He can always point to Israel as a role-model.
Here is another question for you: North Korea declared war on Ukraine by sending troops fighting on Russia's side. What would happen, if South Korea would send 5.000 soldiers to aid Ukraine? Would it be a declaration of war against Russia? AND against North Korea? What if a country leaves their ambassador in Ukraine and they are killed by a drone or missile?
So the thing here is, that the West already HAS BEEN extremely careful, AVOIDING every direct involvement. The support is exclusively with material on one hand and offering a place for refugees - let's not forget that. If anyone has a right on anything in the Ukraine, then the EU sits in the first row. They have spent more money on Ukraine and they house a sizable part of their population.
Trump has managed to change a show of solidarity into a free-for-all sell-out-and-grab contest while Musk buys votes now for 100 bucks.
What Trump doesn't get is that politics don't work that way. Scientists already leave the USA in droves, Canadians don't visit the USA anymore. I could go on, but he's only 2 months at work. Just imagine what will be left in another 2 months. Trump's a disaster, considering that the USA have this leader-of-the-free-world aspirations. You can forget that.
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blizzard
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posted March 21, 2025 08:23 PM |
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Edited by blizzard at 20:33, 21 Mar 2025.
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It's doubtful N Korea would respond militarily to S Korea if S Korea were to send soldiers to Ukraine. It also seems doubtful to me that S Korea will send soldiers to Ukraine at all.
As far as EU having dibs on Ukraine, because it has born the brunt of helping them both in military aid and in housing refugees: it doesn't work like that. You need to let go of the idealism. It makes it hard for you understand how things work.
The reason USA is going to get the REE deal is because it is the one threatening to withdraw aid, and it is also the one offering security guarantees to Ukraine post-war in exchange for the REEs. There is a twofold benefit for USA. 1: it is gets the REEs. 2: it gets to end the war. If the EU wanted to do that, it would need to drive such a deal with Ukraine. Are you personally willing to do that? Would you support the German government or the EU driving such a deal? I already know the answer. You would not, just on principle alone. You're not going to sweep the rug out from under Ukraine's feet. Your conscience isn't okay with that.
But Trump is. He doesn't have the scruples that you have. So, at this point, the way for you to stop Trump would be for the EU to make up for all of the lost aid that would come if the USA were to stop supporting the war, and then offer that to Zelensky, and then on top of it, convince him that the aid would be guaranteed for several years in advance. Do you think that will happen? I'm not holding my breath. Then, there's also the fact that Ukraine is almost a year overdue on an election, which was suppose to happen in April 2024, and polls are increasingly showing that Ukrainians are more ad more willing to settle for a peace, because they are tired and desperate, and life sucks.
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JollyJoker
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posted March 21, 2025 08:44 PM |
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Jesus, you are so completely overestimating both Trump's hand and his ability to play it. Every deal he may strike with Zelensky - who still isn't selling out, mind you - will be worth nothing, if the objects of the deal are under Russian administration.
By the way, I read that Ukrainians in nthe Donbas now have the choice to either become Russians or emigrate to Ukraine. That's exactly what will happen in the rest of the Rusian conquered Ukraine.
And, really, the election bullcrap? It's Ukrainian constitution. They don't have elections in this situation. I mean, HOW, actually? How will you have elections if you are attacked by drones and missiles constantly and s aiszable part of the voters is fighting a war?
That's so god-awful silly to repeat this utterly dumb Trump/Russian nonsense. Christ.
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blizzard
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posted March 21, 2025 09:00 PM |
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I wasn't aware it was in the constitution. Anyway, polls are increasingly showing that Ukrainians want a peace settlement.
The REE deal is a form of exploitation towards a group of people that have been backed into a corner, but that doesn't mean Ukraine won't take it. It will also incentivize the USA to back up its security guarantees after a peace settlement, because a loss for Ukraine means it is also a loss for the US.
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JollyJoker
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posted March 21, 2025 09:33 PM |
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Hopeless. You still think Trump has the power/ability to somehow not only force a "peace", but also make it lucrative for the USA.
He has neither. Putin has already eaten him alive.
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blizzard
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posted March 21, 2025 09:43 PM |
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