|
|
ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
|
posted March 15, 2014 10:17 AM |
|
Edited by ihor at 10:19, 15 Mar 2014.
|
Quote:
Russia in NATO? Not in this world. The existing NATO countries will not be able to handle such a member, nor they want to, while at the same times the global interests of the existing core NATO countries and Russia are usually in opposition and that is not likely to change any time soon. Forget about this.
Russian opposition already claimed they would like to see Russia in EU and you said yourself that EU is almost equal to NATO. But having the fact Putin built a semi-dictatorship, I would agree it won't be in the nearest future.
Quote:
Putin's policy is no more imperialistic than that of NATO, in fact at the moment it's more about preserving existing "assets" than gaining new ones and the latter fits the description of imperialism a bit more.
That is not completely true, Ukraine had pro-russian president but that was still a great difference from Belarus for example. From 2005 till 2010 Ukraine wasn't in Russian orbit as well. Furthermore you cannot say preserving existing "assets" can be made by occupying Crimea, that is obviously increasing its influence. Look at the reaction of Belarus and Kazakhstan who are in Russia's orbit, but they do not support Russia's actions, because they are afraid that might happen to their countries in the future.
Quote:
As for Crimea and Kosovo - from the international law's point of view the separation of Kosovo from Serbia is just as justified as an eventual separation of Crimea from Ukraine and Russia can use exactly the same arguments which the western countries used a few years back. One memorandum changes nothing, Russia will claim that it didn't annex Crimea but that Crimea decided to join it, which is just fine given the Kosovo precedent. What's legal and what's not plays a very little role here, international laws and agreements have been trampled too many times before to become important now out of a sudden.
No, Russia can't legally accept Crimea into Russian Federation, because they guaranteed territorial integrity of Ukraine and other way Crimea can't be independent because by Treaty of Kucuk Kaynarca it will automatically become Turkish.
|
|
kipshasz
Undefeatable Hero
Elvin's Darkside
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 10:39 AM |
|
|
you know, Ihor is right, the protesters aren't bandits. the real bandits are klytchko, yanetsiuk & co. who screwed over Ukraine again.
what people demanded was early elections, right? what they got? an epicly sized pile of crap.
Soon you'll realise that there's nothing to elect but oligarch puppets. be it putlers marionettes or the bums of brussels.
the only good thing imo is the Shengen space. but didn't the countries that are members of the CIS(sommonwealth of independant states. Oh Lucas, you basterd, I see what you did there) also have something similiar to it? no?
____________
"Kip is the Gavin McInnes of HC" - Salamandre
"Ashan to the Trashcan", "I got PTSD from H7. " - LizardWarrior
|
|
Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 10:50 AM |
|
Edited by Zenofex at 10:51, 15 Mar 2014.
|
Quote:
That is not completely true, Ukraine had pro-russian president but that was still a great difference from Belarus for example. From 2005 till 2010 Ukraine wasn't in Russian orbit as well. Furthermore you cannot say preserving existing "assets" can be made by occupying Crimea, that is obviously increasing its influence. Look at the reaction of Belarus and Kazakhstan who are in Russia's orbit, but they do not support Russia's actions, because they are afraid that might happen to their countries in the future.
Ukraine was treated as a transit country which is not part of NATO and had (and still has) strong economic ties to Russia, i.e. a country which is far more "trustworthy" and "harmless" than, say, Georgia. And no, by occupying Crimea Russia is attempting to preserve its influence, not increase it. The Black Sea fleet is there, the population is mostly Russian-speaking, in short this is a friendly external territory which is now threatened after the events in Kiev and the inconvenient interim government which may sign all kinds of deals with the West before Moscow has a chance to react (and that's why it reacted first) - remember for example that the EU is on the way to sign an accession agreements with Ukraine before the elections in May? If Yanukovych wasn't deposed in such a manner, there would have been absolutely no need for Putin to do what he did. In fact, he would have much less excuses to work with.
Quote:
No, Russia can't legally accept Crimea into Russian Federation, because they guaranteed territorial integrity of Ukraine and other way Crimea can't be independent because by Treaty of Kucuk Kaynarca it will automatically become Turkish.
Once again, the territorial integrity of Ukraine is not guaranteed in case part of it wants to become a separate state on its own or it wants to join another country freely (it doesn't really matter how "freely" that is actually). The constitution of Ukraine may require a nation-wide referendum for that but the Serbian constitution didn't allow a chunk of the country's territory to suddenly become an independent state either and the international law has already seen an "exception" recognized by a large number of countries which Russia can wave at their faces until they drop that argument and replace it with something more practical (like sanctions). Turkey making claims on Crimea, especially based on some centuries-old document with vague interpretation, is completely unrealistic at this point.
|
|
ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 10:53 AM |
|
|
Quote:
Soon you'll realise that there's nothing to elect but oligarch puppets.
You got it right. We have already realised that during previous presidential elections in 2010. Tymoshenko vs Yanukovich?? Seriously?
And I don't see any positive from open borders with CIS. That might be convenient for the people on the east, though. Open borders with Shengen might be cool thing for the travellers, imo.
|
|
ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 11:17 AM |
|
|
@Zenofex
Don't you see a differentce between Crimea controlled by Moscow and Crimea controlled by Kyiv, even when the president of Ukraine is friendly to Russia? That is obviously increasing influence, that is total influence now.
Also I am okay with peaceful referendum, that for example will be in Catalonia or Scotland soon, but you can't even compare that to what happened in Crimea. First of all pro-russian party "Russian Unity" got only 4% percents of votes in Crimea during last elections. And parliament of Crimea didn't plan to separate from Ukraine, then Russian military came and under the guns and without journalists crimean parliament voted to fire crimean premier-minister and put Aksenov (leader of Russian Unity) forward into this position. So that can't be treated as free will of Crimean people, moreover referendum can't be legitimate under the guns of russian military. If I go to Chechnya with guns and capture their council, forcing them to vote for referendum in Chechnya, I would be considered as a terrorist.
|
|
Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 11:55 AM |
|
Edited by Zenofex at 11:57, 15 Mar 2014.
|
|
Of course the referendum in Crimea is a joke, nobody says otherwise, but it's an orchestrated joke made to fit certain standards and claim some legitimacy in what essentially is a very old-fashion display of power. What I'm saying from the very beginning of this thread is that laws are something of a secondary concern for the big countries when their vital interests are threatened and they only claim that they abide by the laws when they do something while neither their ultimate purpose, nor the means through which it is achieved really takes what's lawful and what's not into a consideration. It's like a game where some big players can afford to break the rules when they see fit and the other, smaller players can only complain that it's not fair. During the last two decades mostly the US has played that role, now Russia does it, you can expect every other country of their size and power to do the same when needed. The law ultimately won't stop anyone because it's been neglected by all sides far too many times to mean anything to them. And of course, they will all claim otherwise. The difference between the modern days' approach to these things and the status quo before World War 1 is that now you have much more hypocrisy and façade politics than in the "classical" imperialistic era but the essence is unchanged.
|
|
ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 12:18 PM |
|
Edited by ihor at 12:31, 15 Mar 2014.
|
Yes, I completely agree with that. Russia as a big cheese plays its own game. But US is also a big player and that is against their interest, it just can't stay silent. It is unlikely that US directly use their forces, but they have to push on Russia in other ways to save their face.
EDIT:
It looks like a lot of Russians are against the war. The outcome of the situation in Crimea will bring a major impact on Putin's authority in his country.
|
|
kipshasz
Undefeatable Hero
Elvin's Darkside
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 12:42 PM |
|
|
I wonder what'll happen to Russia if all their autonomic republics(Chechenya and the rest) would throw a massive revolt all at the same time.
Russians against an armed conflict is nice, to bad that no one will give a snow about it. If only yanks would do it. oh right, they need oil for their gas guzzlers.
____________
"Kip is the Gavin McInnes of HC" - Salamandre
"Ashan to the Trashcan", "I got PTSD from H7. " - LizardWarrior
|
|
JoonasTo
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
What if Elvin was female?
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 12:55 PM |
|
|
Naah, Russia learned after Finland that treating the autonomous parts with certain respect is better than forcefully annexing them.
____________
DON'T BE A NOOB, JOIN A.D.V.E.N.T.U.R.E.
|
|
Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 03:26 PM |
|
Edited by Zenofex at 15:27, 15 Mar 2014.
|
|
@ihor, a question to you as someone who lives there - what do the "normal" (i.e. not the ones with marginal political affinities) Ukrainians think will happen in case Russia ultimately decides not to annex Crimea, leaves in peace and the pro-EU parties get their way in the elections? From the outside, it doesn't look like there is any way to return to the status quo prior to the events in Kiev as far as the territorial unity of Ukraine is concerned. The local (Bulgarian) media are very laconic about the events in the eastern parts of the country (Donetsk in particular) but it looks like the people there don't like the current government at all and may refuse to stay put if the events develop in a too pro-Western and anti-Russian way, especially if Russia decides to "help" for some local Maidan-like events (which it no doubt considers a viable option). What are the expectations in general?
|
|
Fauch
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 05:38 PM |
|
|
I read that Ukraine actually suggested they could both be in the EU and in an union with Russia, and Moscow had no objection, but the union between Ukraine and Russia was unacceptable to the EU.
until now I had only heard they had to choose between russia and EU, no one talked about another alternative that would be choosing both.
|
|
ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 06:00 PM |
|
Edited by ihor at 18:10, 15 Mar 2014.
|
Well, it is not a secret that Ukraine is very divided country with typically pro-western West and pro-russian East and we used to live together many years having presidents from East, from West, from East that afterwards became pro-western... Now after maidan, and after everybody saw corruption of Yanukovych and which is important after main TV channels stopped their propaganda, it is almost sure that the next president will be pro-western. But as I mentioned we already had similar situation and there were no massive protests in East regions. We do have protests now, but these are actually heated by Russia and because they still think the new government are fascists. Obviously they are not, but the propaganda makes its job. As soon as they will see there are no fascists in government, I don't think there will be more protests.
Also time might help a lot to unify the nation. Currently even on East the percentage of young people who would choose EU, rather than Russia is significant, while the one who want to unite Russia and Ukraine into one country are usually older, with some kind of Soviet nostalgia.
@Fauch
You can't sit on two chairs at the same time, right? You can only integrate into one customs union. Which is more profitable, not sure. But at least life values in EU are better.
|
|
Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 07:19 PM |
|
Edited by Zenofex at 19:20, 15 Mar 2014.
|
Quote:
But at least life values in EU are better.
That's debatable. The EU has a romantic aura for all poor countries which are not yet members but that aura slowly begins to vanish after they actually become members. It's idea - the official one at least - is good, but there are a lot of not-so-nice things which nobody will tell you until they actually hit you and it's too late to turn back. Besides, if you have a history of corrupt governments, you will still have corrupt governments even after you become a member - I can tell you that from first-hand experience. The propaganda crap won't stop either, it will just serve different people. It's a sad truth that some of the EU members are part of the union not because they fit there (at least at the time when they join) but because of the broader strategic plans of other countries and that eventually shows at some point. Still, the EU might (just might) be better than Russia for Ukraine... but it's not better for Russia and that's where the problem is.
Thanks for the answer by the way.
|
|
kipshasz
Undefeatable Hero
Elvin's Darkside
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 09:50 PM |
|
|
I'll just leave this here.
____________
"Kip is the Gavin McInnes of HC" - Salamandre
"Ashan to the Trashcan", "I got PTSD from H7. " - LizardWarrior
|
|
GunFred
Supreme Hero
Sexy Manticore
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 10:13 PM |
|
|
Hehehe...
Hey Kip, check this one out and tell me how much you would love it! 
Skip forward to 4:06 for the relevant part...
25 More Alternate Countries
Together we could put Putin in his place and annexing Ukraine for ourselves sounds like a logical move. 
____________
|
|
kipshasz
Undefeatable Hero
Elvin's Darkside
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 10:23 PM |
|
|
yes and considering there were some political marriages with swedes during the days of the commonwealth I'd say it's a nice thing.
____________
"Kip is the Gavin McInnes of HC" - Salamandre
"Ashan to the Trashcan", "I got PTSD from H7. " - LizardWarrior
|
|
ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
|
|
posted March 15, 2014 10:30 PM |
|
|
@Zenofex
That is very interesting. Yeah, I heared a lot that after joining EU, you start to hate it, even from you guys. And probably that deserves another big thread, but anyway what are these small things that make people change their mind?
And I am afraid we don't have other option, in my opinion working closer with Russia makes Ukraine completely dependent, and currently Ukraine is too weak to stand alone.
@Kip
Hehehe, nice pic. Not far from truth. Possibly that's fake but there are bulletins which already have ticks in right place 
|
|
kayna
Supreme Hero
|
|
posted March 16, 2014 03:15 AM |
|
Edited by kayna at 03:17, 16 Mar 2014.
|
kipshasz said:
I'll just leave this here.
If you had a vote like that in Canada, they wouldn't need to point any guns at us, because voting either choice wouldn't change much anyways. Heck look at him he can still vote using a pencil, lucky guy.
|
|
Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
|
|
posted March 16, 2014 10:21 AM |
|
Edited by Zenofex at 10:25, 16 Mar 2014.
|
Quote:
Yeah, I heared a lot that after joining EU, you start to hate it, even from you guys.
"Hate" is not the word, more like you realize that a great number of the benefits from the EU membership are just propaganda and there are a lot of things which are deliberately not announced during the accession preparations so the people can't start asking inconvenient questions. If I have to make a list of the pluses and the minuses from Bulgaria's 7-year membership in the EU, the result will probably be zero, even negative in some areas but on the other hand we have ourselves to blame for a lot of things too. In the end however, the romantic dream of the EU and the reality are not the same thing at all.
Quote:
And probably that deserves another big thread, but anyway what are these small things that make people change their mind?
For starters, nearly all small businesses will close within a few years because the competition will crush then. This will be especially true in the trade sector where the foreign big market chains will settle all around the country and displace the local traders. The food prices will probably increase quickly due to the 1000 EU regulations related the quality, some of which make no sense at all but strangely seem to benefit the big producers (like the "happy hens"...).
You will have to close a lot of enterprises due to "inefficiency" and if you are especially lucky - and you will be especially lucky because of Chernobyl - you will also have to dismantle at least some of your nuclear power plants, if not all, even if they are proven by a whole bunch of international experts to be no more dangerous than a random French NPP. Alternative scenario is to "upgrade" them with reactors produced in the west.
There will be no short-term improvement in the living conditions of the vast majority of the population (due to the above reasons and others), it might get even worse for some, and the medium- and long-term situation will depend on how well the EU handles itself in general during economic challenges (like the last economic crisis, which is not over yet), no guarantees given.
If you have a corrupt government, a large portion of the Euro-funds will sink into black holes and never reach their intended recipients. The big Euro-financed projects will probably be given to companies "friendly" to the current government and foreign executives which have paid their ways through the procedures.
And so on. The list is very big. On the other hand, you will play a special role due to Ukraine's location so who knows, maybe you will be spared some of the regular crap. Of course, this all assumes that you will join the EU at some point but that's still not very clear.
|
|
ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
|
|
posted March 16, 2014 11:27 AM |
|
|
|
From my understanding, Ukraine joining the EU is not in a perspective of nearest 15 years. And since Georgia proved it is possible to fight corruption relatively quickly, I think it is possible to prepare to the majority of the issues you stated. We have time to change our economy to satisfy more EU standards. But that is extremely dependent on the actions of our current government. If they really want to break the system and make progress, then I think it is possible. On the other hand in case if the people in power will continue doing hidden actions to fill their pockets like all the previous governemnts, then we will continue to carry an insignia of a failed state.
|
| |
|
|
This thread is pages long: 
