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Baklava
Honorable
Legendary Hero
Mostly harmless
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posted March 03, 2014 11:16 AM |
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Not just him.
People don't want to see their country run over. Smart.
If the Russians get a strong enough foothold in eastern Ukraine, folks from the western part pretty much won't be able to do shyte and the crisis'll be over without much bloodshed, with the east de facto becoming a Russian administrative region (of course, never accepted by the West, just like Russia won't accept Kosovo).
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you got the blues."
Howlin Wolf
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JoonasTo
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
What if Elvin was female?
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posted March 03, 2014 12:26 PM |
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Edited by JoonasTo at 12:55, 03 Mar 2014.
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Voice of Russia
Itar-Tass source
"a source in the region’s administration has said."
Yeeeah, right.
What it doesn't tell that about 3000 soldiers switched sides of the 10,000 or so who were stationed there. It also doesn't tell that the soldiers who refused to switch sides were presented two options. Go to jail, or reconsider.
Oh yeah, about you doubting whether yanukovich had enough support in the army. You were right to doubt it. He didn't. The army high command was ukrainian and mostly controlled by money. He threw his money from russia into living in luxury. A big mistake there. Ukrainians won't give loyalty to russia for no reason. So the army actually openly denied any actions against the protesters. I'm too lazy to find the news but they said something along the lines of "all acts of force against the protesters are illegal".
Also, the navy commander was bought out just two days after he was assigned to his new post. Obviously the crimean government is using their russian money much more productively than yanukovich.
He was also fired the same day.
There's also the russian combat camp in kaliningrad that happened out of nowhere for "military inspection reasons."
And russia owns Krim now. They've got the ukrainian bases locked down, navy blockading it, they've got all the ferries to russia in control and are amassing military vehicles on their side of the ferries.
We shall wait and see what happens if they make a play for the eastern ukraine next.
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Warmonger
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Legendary Hero
fallen artist
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posted March 03, 2014 12:57 PM |
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I am really dissapointed by this situation. The west is debating, "expressing dissapointment" and "call for diplomatic solutions", but does nothing while Putin easily rebuilds Soviet Union. The difference is now, unlike during Cold War, Russia is many times weaker than West. But it's determined and consequent, unlike western authorities. Ukraine is left alone and passive, as well.
The only hope is that finally war begins and suddenly everybody will get an excuse to turn against Russia. Turkey is the closest military force that can threat Russia, to begin with, and they have good reasons as far as I know.
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JoonasTo
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What if Elvin was female?
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posted March 03, 2014 12:57 PM |
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Oh yeah, the Russian economy just dived like a brick today. They're not snowed yet but they're going to be back to nothing but oil and gas again.
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Baklava
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Legendary Hero
Mostly harmless
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posted March 03, 2014 01:15 PM |
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Quote:
Voice of Russia
Itar-Tass source
"a source in the region’s administration has said."
Yeeeah, right.
Haha, fair enough. 
I thought the media went mad at Yanukovych because he used the army against the protesters? Snipers and whatnot. So I was unsure whether he was simply reluctant to take out the tanks, or parts of the army refused to comply.
I never understood why he'd authorize sniping random individuals in a mass. You can roll out a few tanks and the mere sight of them frightens people far more. Sends a message, and allows you to back off. Snipers simply take a few guys out, make you look bad and don't do anything to stop a mob.
The whole story smelled rotten to me. But perhaps the man is simply that stupid. Which leaves me wondering why the hell they voted for him. Russian votes don't outnumber Ukrainian ones, so a lot of Ukrainians must've given their votes to Yanukovych as well.
____________
"Let me tell you what the blues
is. When you ain't got no
money,
you got the blues."
Howlin Wolf
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JoonasTo
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
What if Elvin was female?
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posted March 03, 2014 01:22 PM |
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Edited by JoonasTo at 13:24, 03 Mar 2014.
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Because they didn't want a woman president?
And because the elections were not exactly free.
The difference between timoshenko and him was around 4-3% I think? Not that much.
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Stevie
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Undefeatable Hero
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posted March 03, 2014 01:41 PM |
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Baklava said:
I never understood why he'd authorize sniping random individuals in a mass. You can roll out a few tanks and the mere sight of them frightens people far more. Sends a message, and allows you to back off. Snipers simply take a few guys out, make you look bad and don't do anything to stop a mob.
Because it isn't him who ordered that probably.
Same scenario happened here in Romania with Ceausescu. Some people started shooting into the protesters and all assumed it was on his orders. And as a funny fact: the majority of those who died in those days did so AFTER Ceausescu was executed.
It's almost never what it seems. What you're allowed to see is a clever manipulation that suits someone's interests. I can't believe they're reusing that farce all over again.
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JoonasTo
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Undefeatable Hero
What if Elvin was female?
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posted March 03, 2014 01:48 PM |
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There was actually a shifty story on a russian news site about a russian guy being paid to shoot the protesters. You never know. Perhaps it was his mission to take out the agitators or to escalate the stuff, you never know.
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JoonasTo
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What if Elvin was female?
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posted March 03, 2014 02:29 PM |
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One of the reasons the west is not so keen on economic sanctions on Russia is because Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would sink like a brick as a result. Quite possibly Romania, Poland and Bulgaria too.
That's enough countries to destabilise Europe again. And as Finland is the only AAA+ country in the euro besides germany...won't be pretty.
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Stevie
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Undefeatable Hero
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posted March 03, 2014 02:40 PM |
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JoonasTo said:
One of the reasons the west is not so keen on economic sanctions on Russia is because Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would sink like a brick as a result. Quite possibly Romania, Poland and Bulgaria too.
That's enough countries to destabilise Europe again. And as Finland is the only AAA+ country in the euro besides germany...won't be pretty.
We only depend on Russia's gas as far as I know. However we do have our own gas, in fact quite a lot. It's just more expensive to exploit.
I think Russia will probably get away with this one. There are too many countries dependent on its resources and influence.
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Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
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posted March 03, 2014 03:11 PM |
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Warmonger said:
I am really dissapointed by this situation. The west is debating, "expressing dissapointment" and "call for diplomatic solutions", but does nothing while Putin easily rebuilds Soviet Union. The difference is now, unlike during Cold War, Russia is many times weaker than West. But it's determined and consequent, unlike western authorities. Ukraine is left alone and passive, as well.
The only hope is that finally war begins and suddenly everybody will get an excuse to turn against Russia. Turkey is the closest military force that can threat Russia, to begin with, and they have good reasons as far as I know.
Dude, forget it, no open war with Russia and that's that. This is a nuclear state, the only one which is on a par with the US for that matter, you don't just attack nuclear states in an attempt to start a straight-forward war. The tough talk is for the media and for the masses, on the background much colder calculations are being made. Chances are, if Russia officially deploys troops in Crimea, the Ukrainian army will not fight even if ordered to do so. Such an order will have to bear NATO's approval anyway and even the greatest warmongers there (no pun) can put two and two together and figure out that Ukraine is not worth the risk.
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JoonasTo
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What if Elvin was female?
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posted March 03, 2014 03:14 PM |
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Edited by JoonasTo at 15:17, 03 Mar 2014.
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A little specification there Zeno, ukraine is not worth it for NATO. It is definitely worth it for Russia.
Oh yeah, Donetsk is also having a vote on whether to join Russia.
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Zenofex
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posted March 03, 2014 03:19 PM |
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It's worth a lot to NATO, if it can be converted, that is the main reason why the whole thing started in the first place and why Putin can not afford to just give it away. But it's certainly not worth an open war.
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JoonasTo
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What if Elvin was female?
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posted March 03, 2014 03:24 PM |
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Russia would go to war over ukraine, no doubt about it.
Nato wouldn't.
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GunFred
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posted March 03, 2014 03:54 PM |
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JoonasTo said:
Russia would go to war over ukraine, no doubt about it.
Nato wouldn't.
Russia only wants Crimea. They know better than to attack west Ukraine as then NATO might be forced to make a move. They just need to hold their ground and the ukrainian army will not dare to be the first to attack even if it is partially justified. They know they would be sealing their doom even with NATO help and the whole of Ukraine would be lost.
Even if russian troops did retreat, the crim-russian majority would not accept west-ukrainian leadership at this point so Russia won the moment their occupation started and just need to not screw up to stay as the victor.
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JoonasTo
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What if Elvin was female?
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posted March 03, 2014 03:57 PM |
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Pretty much. Russia can't risk losing black sea.
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markkur
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Once upon a time
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posted March 03, 2014 04:22 PM |
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"We went in for our people?"
That reasoning pretty much allows any country to enter any other. i.e. Not too long ago, a certain leader thought he had the right to unify all people that spoke his language.
But this is not really about that; it's about Energy. And maybe a tad of buffer state thinking as well.
Btw, my brother said one of our American representatives over there gave a speech about the situation and my brother was outraged; because a couple "Energy-Company-Logos" were on either side of this representative of the people? during the speech?
I cannot have a solid opinion since I don't know the truth, but since my brother saw what he saw, I have a strong idea what we're about.
Hope everyone is doing well and also; I hope none of HC's young men get involved in this mess. Hopefully the Big Corporations will just sit down together and have another grand FEAST and leave the people in peace.
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JoonasTo
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What if Elvin was female?
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posted March 03, 2014 04:31 PM |
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Edited by JoonasTo at 17:40, 03 Mar 2014.
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But you old men are allowed to take part. That does not sound at all fair. 
So russia just demanded unconditional surrender of all ukrainian military assets in the crimea or they will assault the bases. The ukrainian ministry has not yet validated the claim. They have time till 0300 UTC tomorrow. Nicely timed before the EU can make a decision on the whole conflict, it's going to be decided before their meeting.
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blizzardboy
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Nerf Herder
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posted March 03, 2014 07:00 PM |
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Zenofex said:
You normally sound like a reasonable guy, where did that naive pathos come from? Even if the entire Ukraine wants to join the EU (and it doesn't, try not to forget that), that changes nothing, Russia still considers it another attempt to expand the Western social and military presence in a region that it considers it's own. The EU membership for former Eastern bloc countries always means NATO membership as well and now we are talking about a major former USSR country. Putin might be all kinds of bad things but he's not an idiot. If you look at the map, you will notice that Ukraine is near a sea (where Russia has always had considerably military presence by the way) and that its northern border is some 500 km away from Moscow. In Kremlin language that means potentially hostile troops and missiles stationed one spit away from the capital. This might be a bit hard to swallow, given that you live comfortably far away, so imagine for example Russian bases and missiles near some of the Great Lakes. Or in Cuba. 
But it isn't its own. Ukraine is its own country.
If Ukraine becomes an EU country, it will be because it opted for it.
If Ukraine becomes part of NATO, it will be because it opted for it.
It shouldn't be hard to figure out why; the EU is economically, socially, and politically a more attractive option, because she is more respecting to human welfare. Europeans might not necessarily see themselves that way, but that's just because many of them lack the age and/or the perspective to realize how ****ed up the eastward alternatives are. It was Ukrainians that ousted their president, not NATO forces, and it is Russian troops that are directly intervening with an internal Ukrainian affair. The conclusion, then, is that Russia is acting uninvited, both for Ukraine and for the wider community.
Indirectly, of course, it is complimentary to NATO's goals to have another country within its fold, and one so close to the Russian state, but you are putting the cart before the horse. The West may support a change in Ukrainian politics - which it surely does - but it is just capitalizing on an opportunity that is occurring from a shifting opinion within Ukraine, it is not creating it. How can you defend the view that it is a Western push when the change is triggered within the actual country?
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artu
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My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted March 03, 2014 07:26 PM |
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Edited by artu at 19:29, 03 Mar 2014.
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Blizz, I don't think he's trying to justify the situation but rather just trying to analyze it. Zenofex says, beyond the surface, this is strategical for Russia, she will act upon it, and the Western forces won't intervene because, in the end, it is a calculation of benefit/loss for them rather than a matter of right or wrong.
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This thread is pages long: 
