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Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
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posted May 03, 2014 05:33 PM |
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ihor said:
I know about environment issues of shale gas, but that is not a decisive factor that can stop Ukraine from researching this. Unlike Bulgaria, many countries research this and question the influence on environment. Anyway that is a completely different question.
It doesn't matter now what forced Putin to do what he did, so I am not talking about Maidan in this context. However it does look exactly like a plan: "OK, I'm losing Ukraine, but I can take Crimea and maybe something more". Didn't you think about this? All factors that you mentioned about Putin keeping Crimea also apply to Donbas, except maybe Black Sea Fleet problem. You didn't underline the difference between Crimea and Donbas. And finally Russia can achieve even more global goals with more territories:
- cutting Ukraine off the sea
- getting border with Transnistria unrecognized republic
Thanks artu, that is exactly what I meant.
And one more thing. Take a look at the picture below. There was a fire in communist party office in Kyiv and it was said the document was found eventually there. Assuming that is true, what do you think the document was doing there?
I'm not quite sure what to reply, I've already stated multiple times that I find the whole "Russia wants to conquer Ukraine" thing to be a complete propaganda nonsense and that the Russian government must consist of people completely ignorant of how the politics and geopolitics work to aim at something so shallow and counter-productive from strategical perspective. You lost Crimea because the Maidan put all the wrong people in charge of the country as far as Russia is concerned and the latter decided to act before the problems start, end of story. Attempts to annex more territories without a VERY good reason like a full-scale genocide against the Russian-speakers would be a disastrously stupid move not only because of the international response but because this will practically cleanse the rest of Ukraine of Russian influence. This may sound ridiculous to you but what the Russian government is trying to do at the moment is to handle the situation without an invasion because it has already been demonized enough by the west and risks serious long-term problems if it gives a green light to the troops on the Ukrainian border without a very significant pretext.
The map... I've seen many maps like this, only related to the Balkans. The common thing between them is that they are spread around by nationalists and picture the plans of the nation's (in their enlightened opinion) greatest enemy to roll over the fatherland and enslave the population. Other variations are maps of the "rightful borders" of the country, which are practically reversed versions of the former, only that this time the greatest enemy and the other "smaller" enemies have lost territories to the nation's holy expansion. You didn't know that Turkey would border Macedonia if given the chance? Too bad, you've been fed too much anti-Bulgarian propaganda. Talking about Macedonia, it's actually Bulgaria, only the people there are brainwashed and will never admit it. And so on. Thanks, that's very cheap and overused.
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Apart from the atrocities in Odesa, the "National Guard" seems to have started an attack on Kramatorsk. There are reports for killed civilians, Russian sources claim that the Right Sector militants are shooting left and right, Western sources are uncertain what's happening. We'll probably have 10 different versions within a few hours.
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artu
Promising
Undefeatable Hero
My BS sensor is tingling again
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posted May 03, 2014 06:57 PM |
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Quote:
You didn't know that Turkey would border Macedonia if given the chance? Too bad, you've been fed too much anti-Bulgarian propaganda.
You have any doubt that we will reclaim or land Zenofex 
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 03, 2014 08:16 PM |
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Edited by ihor at 14:02, 04 May 2014.
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@Orzie,
Did you read anything else except russian news about the events in Odesa? Do you want me to outline what was there?
1) There was a planned demonstration of ultras. Plus many pro-ukrainian locals from Odesa joined to hear the famous song about Putin. They all were not armed. Only small groups of self-defense had shields and helmets.
2) This manifestation was attacked by pro-russian forces. Some of them were armed with guns. Don't believe? Here are some photos for you:
Or take a look at the guy with AK-47 on the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBofgPq1EUs#t=344
The same guy from a different aspect:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl1oqASAmK0
Are they terrorists or no? What is your opinion?
3) Do you see how the police watch the people with guns on the photos and videos and still police doing nothing to stop that. Why? Maybe some strange armbands can give you a hint:
4) After some time probably because pro-russian forces ran out of bullets and since ultras and pro-ukrainian forces outnumbered them, they forced terrorists to retreat to their base. The camp was burnt down and I can understand this. People were angry as just few hours ago they were under attack.
5) Eventually we have 6 pro-ukrainian people died. They were killed. What happened next with the building. A lot of pro-russian people died there and that is sad indeed, but were they killed or was it an accident? Take a look at this video how the fire started inside the building:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9AMjLBIliw&t=117
Few seconds later we also see the Molotovs, which can also be a cause of the fire. Pro-russian people on the roof were also throwing Molotovs and that can be a third possible reason. Even if the real reason is the Molotovs from pro-ukrainian side, then you think they throw Molotovs to kill them all or what? To answer this question the other information might help. It was announced that although about 30 died, about 120 were saved. And who did save them, what do you think?
UPDATE:
Here is a photo I found today: pro-Ukrainian "extremists" rescue separatists in the burning building:
6) A lot of people were arrested and it was reported by Ukraine's ministry of foreign affairs that some of them were Russians. I can't prove that, we can either believe or not.
I gave you some facts and you can decide who is guilty in what happened. If you have some other facts to support your position, please provide, but not naked statements, that you or Putin thinks the guys are not terrorists.
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Geny
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
What if Elvin was female?
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posted May 03, 2014 08:27 PM |
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If you really believe that what you just said is the whole truth, then you're s blind as the other side, ihor.
You want facts? Here's a few more:
1) That camp has been there for days and it was peaceful.
2) Pro-Ukrainian extremists were trying to get into Odessa for a while, and were stopped several times to avoid bloodshed. They got in eventually.
3) Many people have been saved, true. But the doctors had to physically fight a crowd of pro-Ukrainian snows to get the injured out first.
In every conflict, there will always be snows on both sides. I know that because I've been living in the middle of such a conflict for many years. Believing that one side is completely innocent of atrocities is naive at best.
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DON'T BE A NOOB, JOIN A.D.V.E.N.T.U.R.E.
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 03, 2014 08:29 PM |
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Edited by ihor at 20:35, 03 May 2014.
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@Zenofex
You always say "I said that already several times" and never actually answer the question. I want to hear the differences between Crimea and Donbas in eyes of Putin.
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You lost Crimea because the Maidan put all the wrong people...
So why didn't we lose the Donbas as well?
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Why did it keep it? To avoid destabilization attempt...
So why not to take Donbas as well to avoid destabilization?
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to boost the confidence of the population in Russia itself...
So why not to take Donbas to boost the confidence in Russia even more?
See? You don't answer the questions.
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 03, 2014 08:34 PM |
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@Geny
Quote:
1) That camp has been there for days and it was peaceful.
True, but I was trying to explain what was the reason of all that snow. When one side attack another with guns, what did they expect? The camp is the revenge and I don't support burning it, but I understand why they did it.
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2) Pro-Ukrainian extremists were trying to get into Odessa for a while, and were stopped several times to avoid bloodshed. They got in eventually.
Pro-Ukrainian extremists? They didn't want that snow yesterday, they even didn't have guns, right?
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3) Many people have been saved, true. But the doctors had to physically fight a crowd of pro-Ukrainian snows to get the injured out first.
Again, their aggression can be understood. We should condem this.
The whole point of my post was that one should think who is a provocator in these events.
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Geny
Responsible
Undefeatable Hero
What if Elvin was female?
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posted May 03, 2014 08:41 PM |
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That's not enough. Of course pro-Russian were the provocateurs. Of course people got angry. That's normal. But when a provocation makes a man lose his humanity, then no excuses will cut it anymore. There has to be self control. Otherwise, the situation will keep escalating until there's no more right and wrong, just endless bloodshed.
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DON'T BE A NOOB, JOIN A.D.V.E.N.T.U.R.E.
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 03, 2014 08:47 PM |
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I am with you Geny on this. First of all everybody has to be disarmed to return the situation under control. And Russia has keys to stabilize the situation. But looks like that is not in its interests.
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Aron
Known Hero
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posted May 03, 2014 11:52 PM |
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What's your opinion on how they were chased into the Union Building if they had so many more guns than the others?
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Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
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posted May 04, 2014 09:17 AM |
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@ihor, I don't follow. You're accusing Russia of not invading Donbas or what? The region is by far not as strategically important to the Russian military as Crimea, the density of the Russian population there is smaller, there is no point to make annexation attempts for a few factories. On the other hand, the Russian-speakers in Eastern Ukraine are a vluable tool to apply pressure in the current situation, why lose it? The Russian diplomacy will make the West swallow what happened in Crimea despite what you may see in the media (in fact, it has already largely succeeded) but will need a very significant reason to justify further territorial "gains". Which it doesn't need, nor wants. That said, a Russian invasion followed by joining further territories to Russia is not totally out of the question but that will take a major pressure on Russian side both internally and from Eastern Ukraine. If you don't take the guns from the hands of the Right Sector lads, you might just provide the needed justification though.
On the other hand, it will indeed be excellent if both sides disarm and start talking. You can't expect however that the separatists will just drop their weapons after what happened in Odesa and Kramatorsk, that would be very stupid on a purely human level. Your government, counseled by Western embassies and intelligence agencies, does just as much to de-escalate the conflict as Russia - nothing. You have members of the Right Sector, Svoboda, etc. in the National Guard in Eastern Ukraine, armed and supported by the regular army - why does your government keep them there? It's obvious that it doesn't trust the army to handle the situation by itself but do you seriously think that some paramilitaries following completely (and violently) anti-Russian ideologies belong there if your government truly wants de-escalation? That's like sending the KKK in Harlem to make peace with Afro-Americans.
Bottom line is, efforts are needed on both sides. If you are waiting for Russia to do everything without corresponding actions from Kiev, that's not going to happen.
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 04, 2014 09:35 AM |
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Before they moved to the pro-russian camp several hours had passed. And from what I read from reporters who were there, sounds of gunshot were heard less with time. The reason might be they ran out of bullets. After that they were outnumbered and forced to retreat. Unfortunately they decided to hide in the building and we have what we have.
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 04, 2014 09:46 AM |
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@Zenofex
No, of course I don't want Russia to invade. I was only curious why you see a difference in Donbas and Crimea. I've got your answers and I don't agree as there are a lot of other reasons why Russia can be interested in that, some of them I mentioned here. However here only one person decides all and it looks like he'll watch the reaction to determine his steps. We will see what would be next.
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Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
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posted May 04, 2014 12:10 PM |
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You still seem to think that this is all Putin's fault. How are you going to comment this? The essence of the article can be found translated elsewhere (for instance, RT's website but I'm not posting the link to it for obvious reasons) but the summary is - CIA and FBI agents "help" the Ukrainian government fight the "terrorists" in the eastern parts. Russia has been claiming that foreign agents are involved since the situations started to become nasty in February and frankly nobody with a sober mind doubts that but that's normally falling into deaf ears in the NATO-controlled domain, with the propaganda's generous assistance. I've no doubt that FSB is active in Eastern Ukraine too. So, are you sure that you are waiting only on Putin to solve the conflict, one way or another?
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 04, 2014 01:47 PM |
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Maybe not all but my opinion it is mostly Putin's fault. Because to stabilize the situation Putin can simply give a command for his men to leave the captured places. You agreed that there are probably FSB guys there. Maybe more, GRU and other, I don't know. No pro-russsian gunmen - no problem, right?
As for the link you gave. I am ok if the guys from outside consult how to cope with terrorists. It is not a secret that USA has a very big experience in this. On the other hand it is completely different if they actually take active part. Are there any evidence?
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Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
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posted May 04, 2014 02:20 PM |
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So, let's get it straight:
The people in Eastern Ukraine are or are not terrorists, in your opinion?
Also, in your opinion, can these "organizers" affect the escalation or de-escalation of the tension in the eastern parts?
Finally, whose interests do you think they serve - those of Ukraine or those of the US?
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 04, 2014 02:43 PM |
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1) Everyone who is armed with firearms and use the firearms to threaten peaceful citizens is a terrorist. Unarmed men who support the separation are not terrorirsts, but separatists.
2) Indeed they can escalate the situation. However we have to do something with the terrorists. We just can't wait and do nothing as it was in Crimea to lose more regions. Terrorirsts had a chance to give away the firearms without arrest. They ignored this, so what the government should do? The same as any other government in respect to terrorists, they have to be liquidated. I understand this is not the way to deescalate, but they refused the peaceful variant so there is no other option now. That is my opinion.
3) Both.
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Orzie
Responsible
Supreme Hero
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posted May 04, 2014 02:52 PM |
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Edited by Orzie at 15:03, 04 May 2014.
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@ihor
No, I don't watch Russian mass media except videos which show the situation as-is, like with the burnt people. I do watch pro-western bbc.co.uk, and that's what it says:
Quote:
В пятницу в центре Одессы собралось несколько тысяч проукраинских активистов, в том числе футбольных фанатов. Как сообщают корреспонденты, они собирались провести мирное шествие, но на колонну напали несколько пророссийских активистов с битами. Проукраинские активисты начали в ответ бросать брусчатку.
Which means "In Friday in the center of Odessa several thousand of pro-Ukrainian activists including football ultras had a meeting. As the correspondents say, they were going to hold a peaceful meeting, but the column was attacked by several pro-Russian activists with baseball bats. Pro-Ukrainian activists started retaliating with throwing bricks and the kind".
And please have some attention to the details I marked bold.
SEVERAL THOUSAND activists including ultras were attacked by SEVERAL activists with baseball bats? I am rolling on the floor. Pro-Western info sources forgot how to make propaganda? Don't you think it's absurdic to read?
I don't deny that there were firearms (and I don't really care because I am perfectly sure that firearms and knives were present at both sides, we're in post soviet countries after all), but it's anyway stupid to use them against thousands of people. And the people died not from the firearms.
Next point. Do you really think football ultras have ever been for peaceful meetings? Are you really so naive? According to various sources, there were up to 900 ultras which came from different cities via railways, and do you really know what is ultras?
I know what is ultras. We in Siberia also had some of their kind. Even if the Right Sector is able to hold peaceful meetings (just shouting ' snow Russia' and sometimes using fascists symbolics), football ultras have never been for the peaceful demonstrations. If ultras from several different football clubs come together in one crowd, it can mean only one - they have come to fight. Ultras have nothing to do with peaceful meetings, especially if they accompany nationalists.
the day of a typical ukrainian ultra
Next point. There were a lot of people who jumped from the windows, and 8 of them were dead. In Odessa, there is five floors on that building. And my question is - do you really believe these people died from falling from the 5th floor? Barely.
They were helped to die. And if the doctors didn't oppose the fascist scum, there would be more victims.
Ukraine will never be a civilized country until it tolerates such actions and claims such people as its heroes. There has been already enough of Bandera.
And yeah, let's wait for the next football match. I think it can be in Kharkiv. And let's wait for the next wave of victims there.
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Zenofex
Responsible
Legendary Hero
Kreegan-atheist
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posted May 04, 2014 06:20 PM |
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ihor said:
1) Everyone who is armed with firearms and use the firearms to threaten peaceful citizens is a terrorist. Unarmed men who support the separation are not terrorirsts, but separatists.
OK, so if I understand correctly, the difference between a terrorist and a separatist is whether the guy in question is armed and threatens civilians. How about armed separatists who don't threaten civilians (frankly, I haven't seen many of the opposite kind) - are they terrorists or separatists?
Also, what about the Right Sector? Do they qualify as terrorists when they threaten civilians? What if they are in the National Guard and obviously armed? Do you think that if a Right Sector member commits an action which you would otherwise qualify as "terrorism" the CIA crew in Kiev will recommend actions against him?
Quote:
2) Indeed they can escalate the situation. However we have to do something with the terrorists. We just can't wait and do nothing as it was in Crimea to lose more regions. Terrorirsts had a chance to give away the firearms without arrest. They ignored this, so what the government should do? The same as any other government in respect to terrorists, they have to be liquidated. I understand this is not the way to deescalate, but they refused the peaceful variant so there is no other option now. That is my opinion.
Then maybe I should ask again - what is the National Guard full of anti-Russians doing in Eastern Ukraine? If the government can't use the regular army to handle rebellions then it certainly has major problems either with the army's command structure, or with its standing among the soldiers. I see no signs that the army as a whole is willing to go on "anti-terrorist" campaigns against Donetsk, however the Guard doesn't seem to have that problem. How, in your opinion, can the situation be de-escalated when your government (advised by the "organizers") send reasons for further escalation in a sensitive location?
Also, I hope you realize that for Russia the presence of CIA/FBI in the capital of Ukraine is more than a good excuse to deploy agents in the east indefinitely. It will actually be very foolish of Putin if he just leaves the government's "advisers" to run the show without any counter-actions. Imagine the FSB operating freely in Havana and the CIA sitting idly and hoping that nothing much will happen. There was one case when the USSR moved more decisively close to the US border and for a few days the world was threatened by a nuclear war.
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3) Both.
Why?
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The problems in Odesa are not over. Pro-Russian activists attacked the police headquarters just recently. Doesn't look very spontaneous, probably FSB's long hand played a role here.
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 04, 2014 06:35 PM |
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@Orzie
Please believe me, I know who are ultras very well. In fact one of my classmates is in ultras and I heard a lot about them. I don't deny that they are aggressive and like fighting. And usually they fight each other. And here we have the fact that you probably didn't know. Fans of all ukrainian football clubs declared truce and now march of ultras of both teams before the match is a common thing and this is usually peaceful. Here are links of such events (I apologize the links are in Ukrainian but it won't be hard to understand what is going on, I guess):
http://tsn.ua/video/video-novini/ultrasi-znovu-ob-yednalisya-i-vistupili-za-yedinu-ukrayinu.html
http://fakty.ictv.ua/ua/index/read-news/id/1513180
So do you agree that your following statement is false?
Quote:
football ultras have never been for the peaceful demonstrations
In fact there was planned a similar peaceful demonstration. A lot of locals decided to join it to hear the famous song about Putin. You mentioned there were ultras from different cities. In fact only two cities: Odesa and Kharkiv because Metalist (football team from Kharkiv) played in Odesa that day. And the ultras of Metalist are actually authors of that famous song, which is now an internet meme:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_r-sH15q90
Quote:
Next point. There were a lot of people who jumped from the windows, and 8 of them were dead. In Odessa, there is five floors on that building. And my question is - do you really believe these people died from falling from the 5th floor? Barely.
They were helped to die. And if the doctors didn't oppose the fascist scum, there would be more victims.
Naked statements again? Did you try jumping from the 4th floor on concrete? I gave you photos how pro-Ukrainian people helped pro-Russian to get out of the building. You didn't provide anything, just talking about imaginary fascists. Actually we have 6 (or 8?) people dead from the pro-Ukrainian side because of gunshot. They were killed. And about 30 died from pro-Russian side by accident. They were not killed. Do you agree with that?
And finally about western media. You try to deny the whole story just because you found it odd they said several thousand and several?
Please answer following questions:
1) Did pro-Ukrainian people have firearms?
2) Did pro-Russian people have firearms?
3) Did pro-Russian people attack pro-Ukrainian people?
4) Did police work together with pro-Russian people?
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ihor
Supreme Hero
Accidental Hero
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posted May 04, 2014 07:01 PM |
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Quote:
OK, so if I understand correctly, the difference between a terrorist and a separatist is whether the guy in question is armed and threatens civilians. How about armed separatists who don't threaten civilians (frankly, I haven't seen many of the opposite kind) - are they terrorists or separatists?
Also, what about the Right Sector? Do they qualify as terrorists when they threaten civilians? What if they are in the National Guard and obviously armed? Do you think that if a Right Sector member commits an action which you would otherwise qualify as "terrorism" the CIA crew in Kiev will recommend actions against him?
C'mon it is dangerous to even speak Ukrainian near the armed guys in Sloviansk. There are records that confirm the separatists from Sloviansk are related to the murder of regional deputy from Gorlivka who tried to take away the flag of so-called Donbas Republic. A lot of reporters and international observers were taken as hostages. That proves the whole structure of Sloviansk separatists is a terrorist organization. National Guard can't be terrorist organization, it's a governemntal structure, they obey to orders. Right Sector can be on the other hand, if for example they kill several peaceful civilians, that might be considered as a terror act. But we don't have such situation right now and I don't want to investigate all hypotetical scenarios and what should CIA say about that.
Quote:
Then maybe I should ask again - what is the National Guard full of anti-Russians doing in Eastern Ukraine? If the government can't use the regular army to handle rebellions then it certainly has major problems either with the army's command structure, or with its standing among the soldiers. I see no signs that the army as a whole is willing to go on "anti-terrorist" campaigns against Donetsk, however the Guard doesn't seem to have that problem. How, in your opinion, can the situation be de-escalated when your government (advised by the "organizers") send reasons for further escalation in a sensitive location?
Why do you see any problem of using National Guard? It is also a unit in police structure and can be used by governmental decision.
About army. Actually it is somewhat illegal what the government is doing. It is not legal to use army without war time declared. And the war time can't be declared now because by law the elections can't be hold under war time. So the government is trying to use more police, SBU and National Guard. This is one of the reasons the government does not use army at full power.
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Why?
It is both in interests of US and Ukraine to get rid of gunmen on the East of Ukraine to stabilize the situation.
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The problems in Odesa are not over. Pro-Russian activists attacked the police headquarters just recently. Doesn't look very spontaneous, probably FSB's long hand played a role here.
Unfortunately the provocation was successful and we have escalation not only in Odesa, but other regions.
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