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angelito
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
proud father of a princess
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posted October 18, 2005 06:48 PM |
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If u put [url]...... and (/url] at the start and the end of your links Russ, they would be clickable and it would be easier for all of us to get to these sites.
I edited your post to do that (remember to use the same brackets before the / as after the "url" to make it work!).
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted October 18, 2005 06:52 PM |
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Ok, the warlock's earth % is off (I never really bothered looking at % for magic heroes, just assumed they would have 10 since Warlocks are supposed to be based on earth magic.) But besides that, might %s are correct and not "all wrong".
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angelito
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
proud father of a princess
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posted October 18, 2005 07:14 PM |
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I think Xarfax mentioned your percentages as wrong, coz the numbers shown in the skill table in your linked are NOT percentages. Coz if u do the addition for every hero class, u will get 112 instead of 100.
Xarfax explained that in his former posts once. I guess it was made (tested) like this:
Which 8 different skills were "given" to a hero during level up till all skills are full. This was made 14 times. When u see a "10" in the row, that means "Hero got this skill offered ALWAYS, or starts with it". The lower the number, the lesser the chance. Coz when u read "10" in the armorer-row on the beastmaster, u know there should be 100%.
I could be wrong here also, but this is what i remember...
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted October 18, 2005 08:11 PM |
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Edited By: Russ on 18 Oct 2005
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Ok, I guess those are not exactly percentages then, more of 1/112-ages.
This still doesn't mean they don't work in the same way.
Even if the hero did not start with his 10 skill, the chance of that hero hero not getting 10/112-age in 21 attempts is 102/112^21 = 0.14. However, that is only when the events are independent, which is not the case. Because when a hero gains a skill, the chance of him getting another one increases since the skills he already has are not counted. Actually, if you consider the fact that heroes start with 1-2 skills, the initial %-s should actually be close to 100%. (i.e. Tazar starts with armorer which has a value of 10 for his class, that only leaves 102 for other skills. Or Pyre, who starts with logistics and Artillery will only have 97 left for other skills.)
So, the chance of a hero not getting a 10-valued skill in 14 attempts would be much lower than 0.14%. I will toss a number as it is hard to calculate the exact number and say it is within 1-5%.
Ok, this is getting interesting, actually. (Who would have thought statistics can have a practical application!!!!) If this is correct, which most likely is the case, then Ivor will have (if you only chose starting skills when you are not offered log or earth):
--- 3 skills ---:
1-(1-3/(112-8-5=99)^6 = 17% chance to get earth as 3-rd skill. (8=archery, 5=offense, 3=earth)
1-(1-5/(112-8-5=99)^6 = 27% chance to get log as 3-rd skill. (5=log)
--- 4 skills ---:
say, he gains a skill of value 5 as his 3-rd (which could be the abovementioned log if you are lucky). he will have:
1-(1-3/99)^6*(1-3/(99-5=94))^4 = 27% to get earth as 3-rd or 4-th skill.
--- 5 skills ---:
say, Ivor got armorer as his 4-th skill (value of 8). he will have:
1-(1-3/99)^6*(1-3/94)^4*(1-3/(94-8=86))^4 = 37% to get earth as 3-rd, 4-th, or 5-th skill.
--- 6 skills ---:
say, he got amm... resistance? as his 5-th skill (value of 10). he will have:
1-(1-3/99)^6*(1-3/94)^4*(1-3/86)^4*(1-3/(86-10=76))^4=46% to get earth by the time he has 6 skills.
--- 7 skills ---:
say, he got amm... tactics? as his 6-th skill (value of 5). he will have:
the crap above * (1-3/(76-5=71))^4=55% to get earth by the time he has 7 skills.
--- 8 skills ---:
ok, finally... he gets amm... say, artillery? as his 7-th skill (value of 6). he will have:
the crap above * (1-3/(71-6=65))^4=62.4% to get earth eventually.
Sounds likely? I think it does. And you get 62.4% with only a weak-ass skill value of 3. If it was 10 (resistance), the final % would be very very close to 100%.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted October 18, 2005 09:20 PM |
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Edited By: Russ on 18 Oct 2005
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Ok, the above was the fastest and the riskiest way to get expert earth (you have to get lucky early on for it to work).
Now lets say you take a completely different approach of chosing more skills and then waiting for the earth magic to be your next skill. Say, you go to the extreme and chose 7 skills ASAP and wait for the earth to be the 8-th. Say, the 7 skills you get are the same as above.
1-(1-3/99)*(1-3/94)*(1-3/86)*(1-3/76)*(1-3/71)*(1-3/65)^16=60.9% to get earth eventually.
Hmm... I expected it to be a bit different from 62.4% above. So, I guess somewhere around 65% is as good as it can get for Ivor without witch huts and universities... kind of sucks that you won't have earth in 1 out of 3 games :-(
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maretti
Responsible
Supreme Hero
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posted October 18, 2005 09:51 PM |
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did u consider u have 20 chances to get it before u are forced to pick something else as ur 8th skill?
Without having done any math on this i would think the chances are bigger than 60-65 %
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Crag rules, Orrin and Ivor suck
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted October 18, 2005 10:40 PM |
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Quote:
did u consider u have 20 chances to get it before u are forced to pick something else as ur 8th skill?
Without having done any math on this i would think the chances are bigger than 60-65 %
Read the post carefully. The 1-st way gives you 26 choices. The 2-nd way gives you 21 choices.
Actually, I did do a small "mistake". When calculating the 1-st way, % will be higher at times when he is offered 2 skill choices at once. But it would complicate my calculations, so just add a few % at the end to compensate for it. Also, if Ivor starts to gain skills with higher values in the beginning, it will slightly increase % as well. So, 65% is about as high as it will get on average.
Btw, this is Ivor we are talking about here, Crag or Tazar will have higher %s for many reasons.
Come to think of it... here it goes for Hack (my favorite hero) using the 1-st way:
--- skill 2: ---
he starts with adv offence (value 10)
1-(1-3/102)^3 = 8.6% to get earth as 2-nd.
--- skill 3: ---
say, 2-nd is log
1-(1-3/102)^3*(1-3/95)^4 = 19.6% to get earth by the time he has 3 skills.
--- skill 4: ---
say, 3-rd is path
above * (1-3/87)^4 = 30.1%
--- skill 5: ---
say, 4-th is tactics
above * (1-3/80)^4 = 40%
--- skill 6: ---
say, 5-th is artillery
above * (1-3/72)^4 = 50.6%
--- skill 7: ---
say, 6-th is archery
above * (1-3/65)^4 = 58.1%
--- skill 8: ---
say, 7-th is armorer
above * (1-3/59)^4 = 66% to get earth
So, the total would be around 67% (considering what I said above).
This does seem a bit low now that I think about it. It seems like people get earth more often than 2 out of 3 games on their might heroes. Maybe the game uses some other criteria for choosing random skills. Or maybe it is buggy and its random generator isn't working as they intended it to work.
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grendal
Adventuring Hero
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posted October 18, 2005 11:43 PM |
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This got me curious so i did a little test with ivor and a pandora box of 200K experience
I didnt take a new skill until my existing ones were expert. This probably would skew the results slightly (sometimes i would get offered 2 new skills).
I tested 50 times and out of that 49 times i got earth magic.
I think taking (or refusing) other magic skills has an effect on the occurance of getting earth magic. I surmise (just opnion and somewhat from experience) that when you take a skill, such as water, this decreases the chances of getting earth. As well, taking 2 magic skills will make it highly unlikely to get earth with ivor.
I now know how i can get earth almost always. Although occasionally i will have to put up with some crap secondary skills 
Take it for what it is worth 
____________
Life is full of frustrations, heroes should help release it!
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted October 19, 2005 02:47 AM |
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Hmm, I just did a similar test too. I always chose the skills I already had until I got one of earth or log.
Ivor got earth:
25/53=47% as 3-rd skill
11/53=21% as 4-th skill
4/53=8% as 5-th
6/53=11% as 6-th
3/53=6% as 7-th
3/53=6% as 8-th
1/53=2% never got the skill
Ivor got log:
8/53 as 3-rd skill
12/53 as 4-th skill
4/53 as 5-th
3/53 as 6-th
5/53 as 7-th
8/53 as 8-th
13/53 never got the skill
This means that everyone should ignore the bollox I posted above as well as the skill % tables. And if there is a similar table used for selecting random skills in homm, then the value of earth for rangers should be 16 instead of 3.
I didn't notice other magic skills having a major effect on earth. Sometimes I would get 4 of them and still get earth. And the only time I didn't get earth, I only had like 1 magic skill. It may look like they have effect on this because if you don't get earth right away, you obviously have to chose other skills, some of which can be magic. But who knows, maybe they do matter?
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angelito
Honorable
Undefeatable Hero
proud father of a princess
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posted October 19, 2005 10:41 AM |
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I think the offered skills are not completely random. Xarfax once mentioned (iirc), u get one of the 4 magic schools offered when reaching level 5 nearly every time, and wisdom is offered at least once until u reach level 9. So there seem to be some "must appear" events during the level up, which make those calculation pretty hard to do. For the matter of fact, rangers canīt get firemagic offered, and u normaly want earth / air most of the times (i still like watermagic aswell...), ur chances to level up perfect with a ranger are high enough.
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted October 19, 2005 04:26 PM |
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Edited By: Russ on 25 Oct 2005
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WOW! You are right, angelito! I just noticed something very interesting.
The Logistics skill chances actually seem to match the % table (the chance to not get it at all perfectly matches the results I got while testing)! 13/53 = 24.5% is the actual result I got and the average chance to not get it according to the skill table is approximately 1-(1-5/76)^21 = 24%. So, the skill % (or 112-tage) table is correct.
Also, the chances to get the other magic schools for rangers are: 1=air, 2=water and 3=earth. This seems to match my results I got where earth got offered by level 5 47% of the time. That would mean that the other times I got offered water or air by level 5.
So, instead of looking at earth magic school values from the table, you need to look at the ratio of earth/total magic school values to get the chance of getting earth by level 5. Which in ranger's case is 3/6 or 50%. I would assume that high ratio also guarantees getting earth faster when it isn't offered by level 5.
In light of this new knowledge, here are % chances to get earth by level 5 for different classes:
Knights: 2/10 = 20% (wow! knights do suck... not that everyone didn't know that already)
Overlords: 3/6 = 50%
Beastmasters: 3/6 = 50%
Demoniacs: 3/10 = 30% (as if Inferno wasn't weak enough as it is, there goes another disadvantage)
Death Knights: 4/10 = 40%
Rangers: 3/6 = 50%
Barbarians: 3/8 = 37.5% (I guess Tazar wins this round...)
Alchemists: 3/10 = 30% (Neela, I don't like you anymore!)
Planeswalkers: 3/10 = 30%
Magic heroes's skills might be calculated differently (since only the might heroes were tested), but here they go anyway:
Cleric: 3/13 = 23%
Warlock: 5/12 = 42%
Witch: 3/11 = 27%
Heretic: 4/14 = 29%
Necromancer: 8/16 = 50%
Druid: 4/11 = 36%
Battle Mage: 3/12 = 25%
Wizard: 3/14 = 21%
Elementalist: 6/24 = 25% (note: 2 of them already have earth magic as a starting skill)
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rychenroller
Promising
Supreme Hero
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posted October 25, 2005 04:21 AM |
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Note: 90% of online games are over before the first month ends. This tells you that you wont be able to build up multiple powerful heroes. If you try, you will die. If you have 2 level 10's with good skills, and your opponent comes and defeats it in castle with his level 20 hero...you think you have a chance with the other? Of course not, he now has your artifacts.
Multiple heroes just dont work. Only if you are playing necro and you have multiple "captains" harvesting for your "general" can it be effective. Still then, you only really have one main. Remember, heroes games are won with speed as much as power. The ability to take apart the map means just as much if not more, if you do it a week ahead of your opponent.
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted October 26, 2005 12:03 AM |
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I would assume extrame/extreme 2 random templates to fall in those 10% because the main fight sometimes happens during the 2-nd month on them. Then this tactic still won't work because this time instead of having stats around 20 as rychen said, your opponent will have his stats in 30-s, plus most likely very powerful spells and extremely powerful army. If you think that a castle with level 1 hero inside will stop him, you are wrong. In fact, most likely your level 1 hero won't even get a turn.
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maretti
Responsible
Supreme Hero
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posted October 26, 2005 09:58 AM |
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I guess you guys have never played Tim. He allways build up multiple heroes and he wins most his games. Besides your main hero doesent have to suffer because you build up another hero. It can be done when your main is lvl 20 + and you just start picking up boxes with a scout or if you can split your army and use another hero places where your main wouldnt go anyway.
Btw what happend to Tim? We had such good games on crystal city and suddenly he just disapears. Anybody have a clue?
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Crag rules, Orrin and Ivor suck
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tigris
Supreme Hero
Supreme Noobolator
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posted January 07, 2006 01:38 PM |
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Edited by tigris on 28 Jan 2006
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2 vs 2 tips
Recently i played a couple of 2 vs 2 games in the company of some of the best players on the zone(Conan,Angelito,Jammer or Druid).Even though none was finished i learned some great tips about playing as allies.
1.The whole philosophy behind playing allied can be explained in an old saying: Mi casa es su casa.I think many players don't take full advantage of this aspect.One exemple:Let's say your ally has a wich hut near his castle that offers logistics skill, and also an university where you get offered earth magic.Wouldn't it be great for you to have those too early in the game? Of course.Just give your main hero some fodder, enter a fight, retreat your hero, then buy him in your ally castle.Then attack some stack that is close and then rehire your hero in your castle.This also goes for magic.For exemple in my latest game, my allied had exp earth magic but no slow.I had slow in my main castle.5000 gold may seem much, but exp slow is priceless.
2.The importance of a trading post is often underrated in allied games.Sometimes in week 1 one might need resources to build a certain structure, so he will need his ally to help.One exemple: to build angels week 1 on a native jebus is a bit tough.But if your ally can't get a 2nd town, it means he will need to build a marketplace in his first town, which will mess up his building(no castle or no creature dwell).Having a trading post equals having 4 marketplaces(or is it 5?:S). What is even funnier is that it also allows you to trade resources to your ally(or even to your opponents for that matter ).Also, later in the game if you decide to trade your resources for cash, you could get a better deal from the trading post.So jut send all your spare resources to your ally and he will send you the cash back.
3.Another interesting thing i have learned lately doesn't only concearn allied games, but since i found out about it in an allied game i will post it here.It is already described in this thread(by splexx i think)as the town bug.But splexx's explanantions are confusing and i always considered this as a bug so never used it.But i came to find out that all the good players use this as a way to inform themselves so i think it's fair for all the players to know it.
Here it's how it goes.When you enter your castle in the lower right side you have a small icon of your castle.If you rightclick it during your oponent's turn, you can see if he build a capitol, if he has castle, or citadel and also what units he has in.Also one important thing u can find out is wheather your oponent is double building.If you have the same number of towns, you can rightclick on your second, third town and so on and so you will find out what your oponent has build in his second, third town and so on.The thing is, if you have 3 towns and your oponent has only 2, rightclicking on the icon of your 3rd town will cause the game to crash(wich sucks).
4.Another important thing in allied games is working together.If your oponent is heading in an unknown territory and you are in position to help, send scouts to open his path(as his scouts will probably occupied chaining his troops).
Hope this hepls a bit 
@edit: always on top!
____________
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dimis
Responsible
Supreme Hero
Digitally signed by FoG
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posted January 07, 2006 02:38 PM |
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Edited by dimis on 7 Jan 2006
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Quote:
1.The whole philosophy behind playing allied can be explained in an old saying: Mi casa es su casa.I think many players don't take full advantage of this aspect.One exemple:Let's say your ally has a wich hut near his castle that offers logistics skill, and also an university where you get offered earth magic.Wouldn't it be great for you to have those too early in the game? Of course.Just give your main hero some fodder, enter a fight, retreat your hero, then buy him in your ally castle.Then attack some stack that is close and then rehire your hero in your castle.This also goes for magic.For exemple in my latest game, my allied had exp earth magic but no slow.I had slow in my main castle.5000 gold may seem much, but exp slow is priceless.
I really like that trick when playing. However, one slight correction: If both allies have Inferno Towns you pay only 2500. For more info check out here where I initially thought that this trick should be free-of-charge.
One more note: If an enemy approaches you and both allies have castle gate you can utilize that tavern-trick with one of your scouters: Get more troops from your ally and return to your town and join all good troops in your main. And then the mouse-cat chase will turn the other way around!
- Dimis -
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Russ
Promising
Supreme Hero
blah, blah, blah
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posted January 09, 2006 04:46 PM |
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Quote:
If both allies have Inferno Towns you pay only 2500.
Isn't it more like 22500? I forgot how much the gates cost but I think they are 10k each. A bit too expensive to transfer one or even 2 heroes one way. Their usefulness is limited to those very rare single player maps where you don't get expert earth + town portal.
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dimis
Responsible
Supreme Hero
Digitally signed by FoG
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posted January 10, 2006 11:17 PM |
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Quote:
Quote:
If both allies have Inferno Towns you pay only 2500.
Isn't it more like 22500? I forgot how much the gates cost but I think they are 10k each. A bit too expensive to transfer one or even 2 heroes one way. Their usefulness is limited to those very rare single player maps where you don't get expert earth + town portal.
You are correct it is not only 2.500 gold because you have to build castle gate (which I don't remember as well right now how much it costs). But, as soon as you build the castle gate, no matter how many times you do it, you are always going to pay 2500 / time (you enforce the trick). 
Plus, let's not forget the side-effect that Xarfax (I think) has pointed out on another (?) thread. If you are inside your castle and someone attacks you, your towers are going to inflict more damage on your opponent. (Of course I don't say that 10k are worth it for that reason only!)
However, with castle gate you can enforce the trick with your ally and get some help in creatures, while on other towns the tavern trick can not help you for that reason.
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Xarfax111
Bad-mannered
Supreme Hero
The last hero standing
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posted January 11, 2006 01:21 AM |
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...wow..i cant imagine a situation that is miserable enough to hide in my town and spend 22.500 bugs to get those "formidable 6 healthpoints extra damage" from the tower shooters.
I think this arguement lacks a bit.
...and isnt it 22.500 for each of them? As far as i remember u need two. Well i never built them.
With 45.000 bugs i would prefer to get another level7 dwelling...dont you think so?
Xarfax1
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dimis
Responsible
Supreme Hero
Digitally signed by FoG
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posted January 11, 2006 02:04 AM |
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Edited by dimis on 10 Jan 2006
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Quote:
...wow..i cant imagine a situation that is miserable enough to hide in my town and spend 22.500 bugs to get those "formidable 6 healthpoints extra damage" from the tower shooters.
I think this arguement lacks a bit.
Of course it does! I just mentioned it for those who don't know that building all the city-improvements increases the shooting power of your turrets. And as for the rest, I just stated that if both allies have castle gate they can do a trick with 2500 gold, which in other towns can not be executed. Of course you may as well be able to win the one who chases you, but why not doing it with double army? You 'll have less losses and most probably the opponents will withdraw right after you finish the battle...
I wanted to say nothing more, nothing less ...
Quote:
...and isnt it 22.500 for each of them? As far as i remember u need two. Well i never built them.
With 45.000 bugs i would prefer to get another level7 dwelling...dont you think so?
Xarfax1
I am totally with you. But what if you have the money over there and watch them grow? And of course there is no (more) extra level 7 dwelling, etc?
Edit:
I think that Russ is correct about the price. It's 10K for the building plus 5 ore plus 5 wood according to the manual. (Manual can't be wrong on that and I can not switch to Win right now because ... well, various reasons!) So, as a result, if you are going to implement the trick at least 3-4 times in a game then, castle gate has many pros in my opinion.
Clearly, one advantage that castle gate allows you to exploit (and we tend to oversee due to chaining) is the following: Creature transportation from your main building. If your hero is closer to your ally's castle, you can approach it, collect the (some) various pluses for attack/defence/etc. while at the same time (2 rounds may be) your ally's heroes chain and transfer your creatures from your main town, meaning that your ally bought a hero in your main town, you gave him your troops that you want to transfer and then on the next round he exploits castle gate and returns his hero to the town that is nearer to you, chaining, and you keep marching with better stats and creatures...
EOE
- dimis -
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This thread is pages long: 
